That doesn't stop people from making sage sounding comments about how the market fell 486 points today due to bad economic statistics -- like the ones we had today on contraction in service sector employment. But by that same logic, the market should have tumbled yesterday as well, thanks to bad retail sales, employment and auto sales numbers on which I posted -- and yet the Dow rose 306 points yesterday.
This got me to thinking about a possible explanation. There's nothing so fun as a good conspiracy theory. What if the Treasury was using its money to help prop up the market in the days preceding the election? My mind then leapt to a possible rationale: Perhaps it reasoned that since the collapse in the markets had helped Obama, a rise in stock prices would work to the advantage of McCain. Aha! It would certainly have looked better for the current administration if it could have been succeeded by another Republican in the Oval Office. If that was the intent, it didn't work too well.
Of course, just as there is no evidence that economic statistics -- or the election -- have anything to do with the market moving one way or the other, so it is difficult for me to find any evidence that the Treasury was funneling cash into the markets to prop it up. Oh well.
In all seriousness, I believe there is a fundamental lack of transparency if there is no credible basis on which to explain why the market moves every day. If the big buyers and sellers of stocks publicly disclosed their moves, then it might be feasible to explain them.
That does not seem to be on the horizon, though. So people will continue making their illogical explanations for those daily price swings.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-05-2008 @ 10:02PM
Rex said...
Today's move was easy to see coming. Large traders use sophisticated algorithms which take into very careful account both price momentum and money flow. They trade into and ahead of the movements, (long and short) thereby accelerating them both to the upside and the downside, depending on which way they are pushing that day.
A good rule of thumb is to NEVER buy any stocks when the market is having a good "up" day and never sell on those days the market is having a bad "down" day.
Better yet, wait for a run of three days in a row, then buy or sell. Sell into the pops, buy after it drops.
That rule alone will save you a significant amount of money and worry.
PS: Obama won, why aren't you gloating?
11-05-2008 @ 10:31PM
Don said...
I thought the movement was obvious, "Buy the rumor, sell the fact!"
Ok. I have no idea really. I'm kind of glad to see it coming back down. I've still got some buying to do.
11-06-2008 @ 9:38AM
beachpaul said...
Transparency, please! The market is being played now. There is so many dollars with nowhere to go except fishing. They get thrown in the water like bait. Anyone who holds for the long run, does due diligence, bothers to invest rationally, gets hooked, reeled in, splayed. This is casino crap. It has become so transparent you can't make up explanations anymore without sounding like a damned fool.
11-05-2008 @ 10:52PM
ynot said...
Since the market manipulaters were not successful in fooling the American voters that the economy was starting to get better so McCain could get elected. We will now come to the realization that a severe recession is upon us. You just have to love our government for their efforts. And now comes tax crazy and spend insanely Obummer as president. I hope I have a job next year. But no worries right? If I lose my job, the redistributed wealth should start flowing in to my mail box. Heck, why work? I will just let Obummer support me and my family. For those of you who still have a job, Quit slacking and get off your butts, I need money here. Move it, move it, move it!!!!!!!!!!!!! One last thing, the last time I saw a crowd like that for an elected official, they were chanting heil, heil, heil.
11-05-2008 @ 11:08PM
camille said...
yes at some point the obots will have to answer for electing him
11-06-2008 @ 11:07AM
scott said...
The DJIA is range-bound between 9500 and 8200. It hit 9500 on Monday so it's time to go back down and re-test the lows. The market had been up quite a bit already ahead of the election as it was clear a week or 2 ago that Obama was going to win so Tuesday night didn't really remove any uncertainty about the outcome of the market. The weak open this morning should have been a sign that the market was fatigued and out of buyers.
11-06-2008 @ 1:01AM
BHarrison said...
Well, how about the "Las Vegas theory" of "just plain gambling" moves on a day to day basis? It's just sort of like a perpetual poker convention, isn't it?
Different people strategizing, bluffing, or calling a hand in the largest poker game in the world. The palyers keep changing, and the money keeps changing hands . . . but, for now, most of the average Americans have learned to stand back and watch the game for a while AFTER they found out that the card decks had been stacked against them, and that "the house" was betting with monoply money or bad markers.
The corruption of the market place has been revealed for what it was. The dealers don't care who wins or loses, as long as they are getting a percentage of each bet . . . The demise of AIG and the other "bedrock corporations" unequivocally confirms that the stock markets are no different than going to Las Vegas to gamble . . . and in this case "even 'the house' has lost a enormous amount of money . . . where did it all go to?
How could "all of that 'money' just 'disappear'"??? The ONLY ANSWER is BLATANT MASSIVE FRAUD; but I don't see much of any CEOs, CFOs, or corporate managment being indicted and prosecuted for FRAUD, do you?
The American people now understand that the stock market is, in many ways, a sophisticated rigged card game, controlled to a large degree by the insiders. How can anyone have faith and confidence in that?
11-06-2008 @ 4:47AM
Robert J. Blackmon said...
Bullshit....the market is running up and down as the hedge fund managers are thinking under this administration, the greed and avarice are coming to an end. No more year end bonuses for them, the only way they can make their fortunes for the time being is to move in and out of the market in sales and buying and selling and their commisions continue to roll. Obama and his administration is going to clean house here very shortly. So boys, your days are numbered.
11-06-2008 @ 4:53AM
Allie said...
I don't buy it. Since most of the insiders on Wall Street are Democrats, or should I say give more money to the Democrats, they built it up on election day knowing Obama would be elected. They also know that he is going to increase the capital gains tax so.... by low sell high is what they did. They got out and kept their money under a Republican who believes your wealth is yours to keep, not to redistribute!
11-06-2008 @ 4:57AM
sam elissawy said...
I do beleive is the stock market in U.S.A are runing by the outsider in europe and asia overseas.In other words outside the united states before the market open at 9.30 am.and the same players have their partenership in u.s.a ..nobody yet explain why that happening .
sam elissawy
11-06-2008 @ 5:51AM
Dan Barnett said...
I thought it was waking up & noticing that the counrty is still in a recession & that the massive spending on campaigning (I've heard $24b total) is now over.
11-06-2008 @ 9:32AM
phatkrome said...
Peter, I suspect that if the market had gone UP 500 points, we'd be hearing from you that it was in reaction to the election results. Because it didn't, it's just a "mystery"? Just maybe, MAYBE, the loss WAS a reaction to the election results. You just can't see it any other way, can you?
11-06-2008 @ 11:00AM
Donny McClary dmantx33@yahoo.com said...
After reading all these posts I have to make a comment that is off the subject some but relevant. As most here I am a realist and not a racist and don't need anyone's approval to know that I judge men by their deeds and not their pigment. With that being said in some ways I think Obama's win could prove to be one of the greatest events in this country's history in time! I voted for The MAC who in my opinion was the only experienced person in the race who has an Idea what we are about to go through! He has seen many financial recessions and has been in a war that ended much like the two we are in now may end. The government will pull out troops without achieving the objectives simply because of the continued high cost and in the end will blame the ONLY Man who had the guts to avenge over 3000 innocent Americans! I thank god Gore lost and became a tree hugger every day! There is an upside to Obama winning and the Democrats controlling both the house of reprehensive and the Senate. First whether they succeed or fail all blame and finger pointing will be on the Democrats so they are out of excuses! When they hit a brick wall in about two years Obama will either break the mold and turn moderate (much like JFK had to) or he will drive us into a deeper depression! I hope it breaks the back of the Democratic party and we never hear from them again! The second good thing is when the government can't afford all the social programs we fund all the welfare check riders will finally have to do something productive other than roll a good joint and make babies! The best thing is they can't blame the rich white people this time either. With Obama's win they ran out of excuses as well! Mark Tuesday as the greatest day in this country's existence! Why you may ask! Because as of Tuesday Racism ended in this country! We are all equal and we are about to find that out in a very real setting! Call it a rebirth of greatness through cleaning house so to speak! As crude as it sounds much of the dead weight will be left behind in the harshest of ways! This period in history will pass like all the rest! The harsh truth is only the smart and rich will survive and nobody can blame us for keeping them down! The man my ass, they could have helped themselves all along they just didn't want to. Now they are out of excuses and about to face the leanest of times. They will more than likely not survive in the end! The ironic thing is this basically started on Wall Street and will end on Wall Street. The trade centers were attacked but I will not let them fade into history un remembered and will not be the one who let innocent people die in vein! Time to put up or shut up people!