President-elect Barack Obama is likely to face the most economic problems to await a new president since, perhaps, the 1930s, and certainly since the 1980s. And along that line, the Obama Administration's biggest decision may very well be determining which economic problems demand immediate attention, and which can wait, for the moment. It's hardly an easy prioritizing process.
That's because so many economic problems require immediate attention. If history is any indicator, or in normal times, only two, or at best three problems would be expected to be addressed/solved in the new president's first term. But these are not normal times. True, Obama will have the benefit of Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, but it is nevertheless unreasonable to expect successful outcomes in one term for all of the problems listed below.
Here are the economic problems, ranked by importance (most to least), including a timetable for action, and a likely outcome.
- Economic stimulus - Here, Obama can address multiple problems at once. The administration can fund infrastructure and other job-creating projects for work that needs to be done in the United States, extend unemployment benefits, and also fund other economic stabilizers. Priority: pass bill in first three months. Success: likely.
- Homeowner mortgage relief - Another GDP-critical issue. The Obama Administration must follow-through on the FDIC's effort to have a universal program for mortgage refinances, backed by federal government loan insurance. Priority: pass bill in first three months. Success: likely.
- Auto sector assistance - Yet another GDP-critical issue. The Big Three automakers have their critics (and deservedly so), but their bankruptcy is not an acceptable outcome. Look for Obama to strike a grand bargain with General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), and Chrysler extending a $25-60 billion loan in exchange for the development of a viable, next-generation, alternate fuel car/vehicle, energy form to be determined. Priority: pass bill in first five months. Success: likely.
- Taxes – The Obama Administration must make good on its promise to raise taxes on upper-income groups to cut the budget deficit and get these citizens to pay their fair share of income taxes. The administration also must cut taxes on the poor, working poor, and modest-income senior citizens. Priority: pass bill in first year. Success: possible.
- Health care insurance/reform - Universal health care insurance is not as critical to the U.S. economy, but health care still takes up too much of U.S. GDP, and there are at least 30-35 million Americans (most likely more) with no health care coverage. A plan modeled after Massachusetts' plan would provide universal coverage. Priority: pass bill in first two years. Success: possible.
- Energy policy - This policy dove tails with auto sector assistance and infrastructure work (electric grid, more energy-efficient buildings and homes). The U.S. has to develop alternative energy sources, reduce/eliminate its dependence on foreign oil, increase auto efficiency, and upgrade its electric grid, among other energy tasks. Priority: pass bill in first two years. Success: possible.
- Financial services regulation - A large overhaul is needed, on many fronts: banking, mortgage lending, oversight, securities transparency, risk management. Priority: pass bill in first four years. Success: likely.
- Education - The U.S. must expand higher education, community college, and vocational programs to enable the nation to compete more-effectively in the global market place. Education is a major factor in reducing poverty and ignorance. Priority: pass bill in first four years. Success: likely.
- Trade policy – Another complex issue that will involve balancing social concerns with commercial interests, among other demands. The Obama Administration is likely to pursue trade relationships with countries that obey U.S. labor, safety, and environment laws, and seek to reform those trade relationships that don't. Priority: pass bill in first four years. Success: questionable.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-06-2008 @ 4:06PM
Iridium said...
Economic stimulus - All economic stimulus that comes from the federal government has to be paid by current workers. The more stimulus that is given out means a larger deficit that needs to be paid for through higher taxes. Any money that goes to the federal government is spent long before it actually gets there. The best move is to lower tax rates across the board. This forces recalculations by budget directors and the government will have to cut spending by default. Chance of happening - zilch.
Homeowner mortgage relief - Can not happen with the current system. Any taxpayer funded bailout will crash and burn. It is not fair to those who played by the rules only to get burnt by those who didn't. Any mortage package would need to be made available to anyone with a mortage regardless of payment history.
The best option would be to use the $700 billion stimulus to give a set of newly created small trusts the ability to borrow money at the Fed Rate and give mortage loans out to people at a rate of 3%. That is th eonly way to fix the housing market. Chances of happening - zero
Auto sector assistance - The Big 3 ran themselves into the gorund and should be allowed to fail. The economic damage will be great but there is no other option. The best bet would be to sell the operations of the Big 3 to Hyundai and other auto companies and give tax breaks for keeping American workers. A Big 3 bailout will only keep them limping along causing even greater damage in the future. The government is writing far too many checks it can't cash. Th eonly thing keeping the US afloat is that the rest of the world is sinking as well.
Taxes – Raising taxes on the rich only causes higher prices on goods and services for the rest of society. All data shows that raising taxes on the rich either decreases overal tax revenue or keeps it at the same level. The only solution is to put more money into the pockets of every American. Raising taxes on any target causes economic contraction.
Health care insurance/reform - The only solution is the abolishment of health insurance, medicare, and medicaid. Social programs and insurance cause massive inflation in the health sector. The more people are insured the higher prices go. This happens because the burden of responsibility is shifted away from individuals. This enables massive fraud to take place. An individual would fight against corruption. It is much harder for a group to take action. If all insurance was abolished hospitals and doctors would have to charge a price set by what a patient could afford.
Energy policy - The cost of implementing a new power system with wind and solar far outweigh the gains. We need clean coal and nuclear power. The cost of building new lines should be paid for by the corporations who would benefit from a massive surge in the consrtuction of new power plants. Wind and solar do not work in a reccession.
Financial services regulation - Two things: full disclosure of all market transactions and attaching responsibililty. One law could fix a lot of problems. The originator of a loan must be the servicer of the loan.
Education - The US education system is in shambles because the federal government has taken over too much control. Rather than rewarding excelence we are setting the bar at the wekest link. Nobody is allowed to outpace the slowest student. Money is not the answer. The answer is putting education back in the hands of good teachers. Somehow America excelled when we spent 1/10th per student what we do now. With the highest spending per student in history we lag behind everywhere.
11-06-2008 @ 4:55PM
BUDPUT said...
IRIDIUM IS DEAD ON IN HIS/HER REBUTTAL
11-06-2008 @ 6:50PM
Dennis said...
I really agreed with IRIDIUM all of it. Budpit should go back to school to learn more on Economics 101.
11-06-2008 @ 7:51PM
girly girl said...
Why is there discussions on which ones to handle first. Obama presented himself as
a person that could take of any and all problems at one time. Obama claimed to have the smarts to hit the floor running on the first day as President. Obama has the next 2 months to figure out how to fix all the problems of the United States when he takes office in January. Keep in mind Obama walks on water and is the idol of so many (idiots) supporters and other countries. I want his supporters to demand of him all that he promised them and more. I don't want to have to tell them in 6 months "I Told You So", but I will if necessary.
11-07-2008 @ 12:45PM
dsmeryage said...
Iridium is dead on with the rebuttal to the stupidity of the author who wrote the original article. Unfortunately, Obama's professed policies are directly in line with the ignorance of the original author. raising taxes on the productive will reduce the amount of tax receipts actually collected. Investing more money into our broken educational system which is controlled by the teachers' unions is like throwing money down a hole in the ground as well. As a somewhat well-off and definitely productive member of society who owns a successful small business, I am already planning ways to circumvent paying additional taxes. If some goon comes and tries to unionize my productive labor, I will shut down my business before I allow that to happen.
11-07-2008 @ 1:49AM
me said...
what he needs to do first is stop wastefull spending and get rid of the millions of illegal aliens suckin this country dry
11-07-2008 @ 2:07AM
linda ramadan said...
he has to cut unnecessary expenses.#l bring home all those soldiers and mercenaries from iraq and let the iraqi's run their country..he should hold off on afghanistan and get money from oil rich saudi's who have been allowing islamic fundamentalist ideas become a means for the royal family to stay in power. bendar sultan should be exiled to crawford, texas and all the billions that were made by the execs of likes of lehman should be taken and put into federal coffers..if he looks at the world as a friend, the world will reciprocate..this is a chance for peace and peace costs less than war..the world needs countries like GE, gm, and our technology will make the usa rich again..the best brains are in the usa. he can tap into our advances and spread them around ...i would set up schools, not army bases in afghanistan...again get the money from saudi arabia and stop talking war...it's depressing and people don't consume when they're under the threat of war...also start by making the internet more accessible to countries in the middle east..help i use dial up and a generator
11-07-2008 @ 10:52AM
Jeff said...
Joseph - your post has a good collection of comments that show exactly why Obama is president. American's are sick of the holier than thou representatives telling them the best way to get out out the mess they got everyone into. Stubborn myopia is no longer an electable quality.
ex. The surge is working!
Offering a paper towel on a gallon of split milk doesn't make anyone a hero.
11-07-2008 @ 5:55PM
Robert Wayne said...
Newsflash!!! Obama was quoted as saying, "De fust thing ah wants to do is make sho evy brotha get hisself a yellow Cadillac. Dat way he be looking lak he a playa when it be parked in front of his projects. Den he be stylin' wen he go pickin' up hoes or to de welfare and food stamp offus."
11-11-2008 @ 2:43PM
Teresa said...
With christmas around the corner who couldn't use another check is my question?
If you can go out anytime you want and go shopping, you don't need it!
If you can go out anytime you want and go to dinner, you don't need it!
There alot of other things I can think of but you should get the point.
There are alot of people needing the checks and are living paycheck to paycheck and are not having a christmas at all!!
12-08-2008 @ 8:18PM
Jim Thierbach said...
To get the US economy going again. Impose a 3% a federal tax on all internet sales in the US. Also impose a 5% federal tax on all text messaging. The government would be flush in 3 months and we the tax payers would not be footing this huge bailout from our earnings tax!