Obama's biggest decision? Choosing which economic problems to address first


President-elect Barack Obama is likely to face the most economic problems to await a new president since, perhaps, the 1930s, and certainly since the 1980s.

And along that line, the Obama Administration's biggest decision may very well be determining which economic problems demand immediate attention, and which can wait, for the moment. It's hardly an easy prioritizing process.

That's because so many economic problems require immediate attention. If history is any indicator, or in normal times, only two, or at best three problems would be expected to be addressed/solved in the new president's first term. But these are not normal times. True, Obama will have the benefit of Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, but it is nevertheless unreasonable to expect successful outcomes in one term for all of the problems listed below.

Here are the economic problems, ranked by importance (most to least), including a timetable for action, and a likely outcome.
  • Economic stimulus - Here, Obama can address multiple problems at once. The administration can fund infrastructure and other job-creating projects for work that needs to be done in the United States, extend unemployment benefits, and also fund other economic stabilizers. Priority: pass bill in first three months. Success: likely.
  • Homeowner mortgage relief - Another GDP-critical issue. The Obama Administration must follow-through on the FDIC's effort to have a universal program for mortgage refinances, backed by federal government loan insurance. Priority: pass bill in first three months. Success: likely.
  • Auto sector assistance - Yet another GDP-critical issue. The Big Three automakers have their critics (and deservedly so), but their bankruptcy is not an acceptable outcome. Look for Obama to strike a grand bargain with General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), and Chrysler extending a $25-60 billion loan in exchange for the development of a viable, next-generation, alternate fuel car/vehicle, energy form to be determined. Priority: pass bill in first five months. Success: likely.
  • Taxes – The Obama Administration must make good on its promise to raise taxes on upper-income groups to cut the budget deficit and get these citizens to pay their fair share of income taxes. The administration also must cut taxes on the poor, working poor, and modest-income senior citizens. Priority: pass bill in first year. Success: possible.
  • Health care insurance/reform - Universal health care insurance is not as critical to the U.S. economy, but health care still takes up too much of U.S. GDP, and there are at least 30-35 million Americans (most likely more) with no health care coverage. A plan modeled after Massachusetts' plan would provide universal coverage. Priority: pass bill in first two years. Success: possible.
  • Energy policy - This policy dove tails with auto sector assistance and infrastructure work (electric grid, more energy-efficient buildings and homes). The U.S. has to develop alternative energy sources, reduce/eliminate its dependence on foreign oil, increase auto efficiency, and upgrade its electric grid, among other energy tasks. Priority: pass bill in first two years. Success: possible.
  • Financial services regulation - A large overhaul is needed, on many fronts: banking, mortgage lending, oversight, securities transparency, risk management. Priority: pass bill in first four years. Success: likely.
  • Education - The U.S. must expand higher education, community college, and vocational programs to enable the nation to compete more-effectively in the global market place. Education is a major factor in reducing poverty and ignorance. Priority: pass bill in first four years. Success: likely.
  • Trade policy – Another complex issue that will involve balancing social concerns with commercial interests, among other demands. The Obama Administration is likely to pursue trade relationships with countries that obey U.S. labor, safety, and environment laws, and seek to reform those trade relationships that don't. Priority: pass bill in first four years. Success: questionable.
Fiscal Policy / Economic Analysis: As noted, the above are enough problems to fill two terms, let alone one term, and they don't include foreign policy or other issues facing the nation. Moreover, the priority must be getting the U.S. economy on the growth track again via infrastructure work, mortgage refinance assistance, and via other programs that promote job growth. That's because a thriving U.S. economy with sustainable growth forms the foundation for a strong, dynamic nation.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 02:42 AM

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