Well, thanks a lot, Disney (NYSE: DIS), for making a liar out of me. I thought the media company would beat earnings expectations for the fiscal fourth quarter. It didn't. Net income on an adjusted basis was $0.43 per share. Wall Street thought the Mouse was good for $0.49. And there wasn't much growth quality to the bottom line, either. Disney only managed to increase it by a single solitary penny. Alas.
Shareholders can console themselves with the 18% growth seen in the adjusted per-share earnings for the full year. However, they won't be too pleased by the 38% drop seen in Q4 free cash flow. And the 1% gain in free cash flow for the year isn't going to make any investor jump for joy. Disney's operating segments struggled during the quarter, save for consumer products, which saw its top and bottom lines expand. Looks like merchandise based on Hannah Montana and High School Musical are still performing (for now).
Make no mistake about it, I'm disappointed. I'm a shareholder, so I've got money behind CEO Bob Iger's vision. And it looks like not even he can make the recession go away. It clearly is affecting Disney. And it clearly will continue to affect Disney. All he can do now is manage the pain for shareholders. Every single dollar should be looked at before it is spent. Do I have confidence that Iger is up to the task? I think he'll do a reasonably good job, but quite frankly, that isn't good enough. The best thing Iger could do at this grave economic juncture is reward shareholders with a much higher annual dividend and, perhaps more importantly, a special dividend. If you're a long-term shareholder in this market environment, you definitely want to be paid to wait.
Even though I argued that Iger may do an okay job steering the company through the downturn, I'd rather decide where some of Disney's capital goes myself. Why shouldn't I want to do that, especially when any bet the company might make at this point in terms of investing in itself might go nowhere fast? In my opinion, Disney has the cash flow, challenged though it may be, to do something in terms of an enhanced dividend payout.
I would have to imagine that Disney's stock will break the $20 level after Wall Street digests the numbers. I think the stock will make for an interesting long-term investment, or even a short-term trade, on such a pullback, although I should add that I wouldn't just buy the stock if it breaks $20. I'd have to evaluate its technical quality at that point, and see if any other fundamental news is out there that would affect a buy/sell decision. There's no question that this industry, which includes News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and CBS (NYSE: CBS), will see its share of bad news in coming quarters.
I have a long-term position in Disney, and I'm pretty confident the shares will be higher a year or two from now than they currently are (assuming we start to see better economic news by that time). But Iger needs to step up to the plate and get serious about rewarding shareholders. Buybacks are great, but diverting some of those monies to a special dividend might be exactly what shareholders are pining for. I know I am.
Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change at any time.










