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Retail sales plunge puts a new twist on trickle down economics

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As I've posted, Tuesday's voting results repudiate the idea that government of the rich for the rich will benefit everyone. Thursday's retail sales reports indicate that this concept fails just as badly when the economy is doing "well" as when it collapses.

How so? Despite Sarah Palin's $150,000 plus shopping spree, the ultimate luxury store Neiman Marcus saw its sales drop 28% in October compared with the same month last year. What is happening is that trickle down economics, which never worked when the government reported economic growth -- thanks to declining median incomes and rising costs --, is now failing even more catastrophically during the collapse. Simply put, the rich are getting poorer and the middle class are barely able to keep a roof over their heads.

Not surprisingly, this is working out well for Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) whose sales are rising as more and more as people who aspired to shop at Neiman Marcus take advantage of Wal-Mart's low prices. How disappointed Wal-Mart must be with the election result; it encouraged its managers and employees to oppose Obama. And despite that misguided effort, Wal-Mart is now benefiting handily from the economic collapse.

But this year retailers are starting their holiday advertisements especially early as they try to draw consumers into the stores to get rid of their massive quantities of excess inventory. The stores are so desperate that it may be worth trying to negotiate lower prices at the register. This is deflation in action -- and if you have the money, you will be able to take advantage of it.

When economic disaster strikes, it hurts the rich, the middle income and the poor. But if you have cash, you can take advantage of the lower prices. That's a twist on trickle down economics that the outgoing political party never anticipated.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Wal-Mart securities.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 02:11 PM

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