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China writes a check for $585 billion

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China is worried that its own growth is slowing so much that unemployment in the big country will rise and GDP expansion will slow. It makes sense. Exports are off because the large nations of the West are importing less as they go through their own recessions.

To offset these problems, China's government will initiate a $585 billion stimulus package. The money will be used to build infrastructure, low-cost housing, and to help industries particularly hard hit by the export problems. Since China's GDP growth is not being driven by demand from outside the country, perhaps the government can create demand for goods and services within its own borders.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Beijing has long held that economic growth of at least 8% is needed to provide the improvement of employment and incomes the ruling Communist Party relies on for popular support." Writing a huge check may work, but it may only work for a brief time.

A recession in major developed countries could last nearly two years. There is some evidence that GDP in the US could contract all next year and that corporate earnings could fall during the same period. Unemployment may well move over 8% marking a recession as bad as the ones in 1974 and 1982. The demand for imports could drop as sharply as it has in three decades.

In the teeth of that kind of slowing in the US and EU economies, China may be able to do very little to "save" its economy from dropping to GDP growth below 5% or perhaps even a contraction of economic activity.

Six hundred billion dollars seems like a lot until one looks at the headwinds.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 08:14 AM

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