All weekend I heard it. Stocks have gotten too cheap. Put 'em away cheap. Don't worry about 'em cheap. To which I say, stocks are only cheap if the companies make it. Stocks are only cheap if the bondholders don't claim them.
Every day I see cheap stocks. Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) reported this morning. Ridiculously cheap. How cheap is Sprint (NYSE: S) (Cramer's Take), for heaven's sake? Did you see the Sunrise Senior Living (NYSE: SRZ) (Cramer's Take) numbers? That stock should show up when you enter "cheap stock" in Google. Except Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) (Cramer's Take) comes up.
When Warren Buffett says stocks are cheap, or Jeremy Grantham or Steve Leuthold or Jeremy Siegel, it's very heartening. You just want to go out there and buy cheap stocks like CBS (NYSE: CBS) (Cramer's Take) and Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) (Cramer's Take) and Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) (Cramer's Take) and Talbots (NYSE: TLB) (Cramer's Take).
Or do they mean Pepsi (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take) and Procter (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) and Colgate (NYSE: CL) (Cramer's Take), which I like but which aren't cheap.
Or do they mean Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) (Cramer's Take), which aren't cheap now but could be cheap if the things they are saying -- the bleak outlooks -- aren't true.
You want cheap? How about Transocean (NYSE: RIG) (Cramer's Take)? How about Conoco (NYSE: COP) (Cramer's Take) and Occidental (NYSE: OXY) (Cramer's Take)? But if oil goes to $50, they aren't cheap. They are downright expensive.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) looks dirt-cheap, and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) has to be the cheapest of all. But I thought Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take) was cheap, and others thought Washington Mutual looked really cheap.
Isn't Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take) cheap at $10? It used to be at $40. Freeport-McMoRan's (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) as cheap as can be, until you consider Deere (NYSE: DE) (Cramer's Take). But if aluminum and copper and grains plummet in value, they might not be cheap.
Boeing's (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take) the cheapest in years. Until you read that Airbus sees a big decline in orders and you look at the incredibly cheap Genesis Lease (NYSE: GLS) (Cramer's Take) and Aircastle (NYSE: AYR) (Cramer's Take), two big plane buyers in the mid-single digits.
Can you get cheaper than Home Depot (NYSE: HD) (Cramer's Take)? Look at that yield? But if housing plummets further, is the yield safe?
Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), KB Home (NYSE: KBH) (Cramer's Take), Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) look so cheap they are scrumptious ... until you look at their credit lines, which make them seem downright expensive.
How could MetLife (NYSE: MET) (Cramer's Take) and Pru (NYSE: PRU) (Cramer's Take) and Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) (Cramer's Take) be so cheap? How cheap were Bear and AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) and Lehman at the end.
GM (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take) at $5?
Screaming how cheap it is?
Buffett, Siegel, Grantham, Leuthold -- they all have the luxury of saying things are cheap. Buffett can come out in an op-ed piece and say he is buying America.
I go out and recommend American stocks, what he's buying or owns -- Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (Cramer's Take), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take), Coke (NYSE: KO) (Cramer's Take), the rails, UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) (Cramer's Take) -- and I am dead wrong. Goldman (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) was cheap at $120, GE (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take) at $22. Right? Didn't we buy them because he did?
How can he be so right and when I recommend what he likes, I am dead wrong?
How can they say things are cheap when the environment is so uncertain that what's cheap today might turn out to be nonexistent later? How can they be right without looking at the obligations, the future, not just the near-term future?
"No," they would say, "those aren't the stocks we're talking about."
They are talking about the really good cheap stocks. They are talking about the S&P.
I am talking about the statistically cheapest and best stocks in the S&P on my show, and they go down all the time. Only the accidentally high yields save them.
Again, how can the graybeards see the market as cheap and not realize how much money they have lost saying and buying cheap stocks?
"Oh, but the long-term makes sense."
OK, how about I come out on my show and say, "Don't care about the next 50%, care about the next 50 years?" Is that good enough?
You see, the notion of the "cheap" stock is a luxury to talk about.
Is Siegel the best investor in the world? Grantham? Leuthold? Buffett in the last five years?
Is humility an issue here?
I would love to say that things are cheap.
I came out at Dow 11,000 and Dow 10,000 and said that I don't trust the market. It isn't working. It is broken. It is not a place to save money in for the next five years.
No matter that the market subsequently dropped about 25%, which, where I am from, is a decline worth missing considering that stocks on average have gone up about 7% year over year, making it hard to make that money back in the next four years. No matter that savings are being wiped out left and right in cheap stocks. No matter that we all know the fundamentals are the worst since the Depression.
My call to sell was the most reviled of my career. I have received more hatred for it, more scorn, whole ad campaigns against me, a vanishing act on major TV shows. I am a pariah.
I guess I should have said to stay the course at Dow 11,000 and Dow 10,000. I should have said how cheap things are.
I would be loved.
The issue?
I would be wrong.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco, Deere, Freeport-McMoRan, GE, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Pepsi, Procter & Gamble, Qualcomm and Wachovia.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-04-2008 @ 11:52AM
kjordan944 said...
We should call you Galilleo Cramer. More truth tellers are needed. People want the truth! But be prepared for the 21st century version of the Inquisition.
11-10-2008 @ 11:26AM
BHarrison said...
Jim Cramer is admittedly one of those who made his fortune through practices that were later prohibited, and made illegal . . . but as he has said it was "legal" at the time when he amassed his wealth.
Personally, I am a novice (or less) when it comes to the stock market; but I find Crammer's apparent blatantly frank "honesty" to be a voice of rational information out of the chaos of this debacle.
The quandary is that the economy requires economic activity to stabalize; but the market has not bottomed out; nor have the government nor the corporations provided full disclosures for Americans to have the faith and confidence tore-investment in the maket. And as Crammer noted, this will probably take SEVERAL YEARS. I anticipate things getting worse through 2009 minimally.
Getting into this mess was relatively easy because it provided the illusion of easy profitabilities; getting out of this mess is going to be a long and extremely arduous process. There are NO EASY ANSWERS or SOLUTIONS.
Cramer's honest opinons may not be appreciated by the industry; but it is the type of eithical integrity and "courage" that is needed to restore the stability to our economy. Meanwhile the vast majority of Americans have lost all faith and confidence in the financial industry and major corporations.
Just as many people were inticed to join in the speculative real estate investments, many will be deluded into buying "cheap stocks" that turn out to be worthless.
I applaud Cramer for stating his honest, insightful opinions.
11-10-2008 @ 12:02PM
BHarrison said...
QUESTION:
It would seem that the ONLY THING that is going to expedite restoring "faith and confidence" in the market will be FULL DISCLOSURE by the corporations and the governement as to the financial conditons of the corporations.
Granted, the "truth" is going to be disastrous, and it will take down some of those corporations . . . But is that avoidable? I think not.
Is it realistic to anticipate that full diclosure will be provided? Problably not under our current Congress and corporate managment. Shouldn't the relatively strong corporations be willing to provide full disclosure about their financial conditions?
The key question is why isn't the government and the SEC requiring full disclosure by all of the corporations?
11-14-2008 @ 1:22PM
Thor Ludvigsen said...
Every stock that cramer has picked in the last few months has gone down...I request the Crammer stops with all the Buha B.S. and starts being more serious....We all need help....Tell the truth...times are tough...what should we do...no more fan fare.....if Cramer says not to buy anything that would be greaty...going forward I am going to SHORT all of Crammers pick...had I done that I would be a rich man today.
11-10-2008 @ 2:17PM
beachpaul said...
It's all your fault! Yeah, that's the ticket. Kill Cramer! That'll work! You yelled FIRE in a burning building. Hello? Many of us who actually listen to you, went out the back door when we smelled smoke, eight, twelve months ago, never mind, two weeks ago. We didn't get mutually fund! So, get off the pity pot and get back behind the stove. It's always hot working in a kitchen.
11-10-2008 @ 3:03PM
jim said...
I wonder are we now in a recession with a deperession coming. Buy buy buy that's what they say. Somebody should tell them with WHAT!
11-10-2008 @ 4:27PM
Marion Wichrowski said...
Cramer and the rest of the CNBC crowd showed be Tarred and Feathered, as they are Flim Flam Con Artists. if they all got caught in the '90's their asses would be in jail!
11-11-2008 @ 9:53PM
joe said...
im only writing this so the government knows where to send my bailout money..
i live on mainstreet USA..a grand idea to have everyone own their own home but to lower lending standards that have worked for years was not the way..i wonder if barney frank thinks everything is still fine..grand ideas are fine if implemented correctly..barney frank wasnt the only one to look the other way..the reality of the financial markets will let us know to the penny how much this action will cost...
11-11-2008 @ 7:40AM
Red Raider Dave said...
Yes, the market is down. But being a bottom fisher, I'm buying Fannie Mae (FNM) & Freddie Mac (FRE) at $.72 & $.88 respectively. I'm buying a little each week, and if it goes to $5, $10, $20, or half of what it once was at $60, I'll never have to work again. I can live off of $1.8 million. And if it goes back to where it once was, $60/share, I could splurge a little. At least for a little while.
If I had $100,000 to invest, NOW is the time to get INTO the market. In my personal experience, the key to making money is to buy at the best possible price, and sell at or below your competitions price. So buying smart is the real key.
Patience is the key. The cat catches the mouse by waiting for him to come out of his hole, then pouncing on the opertunity.
DAVE
OKC Red Raider
Go Texas Tech
11-11-2008 @ 9:03AM
nick said...
What do the jews want to control next, see the market is going up with the pawn shops, these are mostly controlled by Jews. They run about everything in the US now. Can't hardly find a dealership they don't have their hands in. Look at Wall Street and folks running the Treasury Department. We know who is calling the shots. The great elite white folks like CEO of GE.
11-11-2008 @ 11:42AM
mj said...
Cramer has great foresight. I follow Cramer with discretion. He subtly projected that the market MIGHTgo to 8500 when it was much higher and I kept this in mind. He saved me lots of money.Why? When the market started to tank I had the courage to sell most of my stocks @ a loss which hurt. But it would've hurt much more if I waited another week,etc. His current blog warns not to be fooled by the cheaper prices. I'm keeping my finger off the button to BUY.
11-11-2008 @ 9:32PM
Ynot said...
Are you people blind or do you not have time to pay attention to what is going on here. You don't need Cramer to see bailout after bailout. Investment companies and credit card companies changing into banks to access fed funds. Job losses by the thousands reported day after day. Housing continually worsening. Commercial properties, retail, auto and just about everything else faltering. And it is happening world wide all at the same time. Deflation is upon us and is going to get worse. If Cramer had a hair on his a$$ or head, he would have called this joke of a market when it was at 13,000 to 14,000. At that time it should have been like someone kicking him in the a$$ that a bust was coming. What was Cramer screaming then? Buy or sell? When the housing bubble burst, what was Cramer screaming the damage would be? A few billion? A couple hundred billion? A couple trillion? What did he say about how it would effect the rest of the economy? He sugar coated this mess for as long as he could. Now like a professional wrestler he is changing to the good side. All I got to say is who needs ya.
11-16-2008 @ 2:43PM
Sam said...
I am not sure if it is meaningless. Warren Buffet recently bought COP for an average price of $80.2. Today's value - $47.
Do you think it is meaningless? When was the last time the Oracle made a meaningless investment. IMO it is a great opportunity if you have money to invest - and you do not need it back by - I don't know - 2010?
Other stocks I am watching MCD, JPM, BNI, ETN
Sam
http://tickertoday.blogspot.com