AOL Money & Finance

Is GM worthless?

General Motors (NYSE: GM) has been losing market share for decades. Now it looks like GM will run out of cash in the next six months unless the government steps in to bail it out. And President-elect Obama seems to have concluded that GM is too big to fail and will provide the financing it needs to keep GM going. Is this the right thing to do?

Before addressing this question, let's look at GM's current financial condition. It reported a $4.2 billion third-quarter operating loss on Friday and said its available cash fell to $16.2 billion on September 30 from $21 billion at the end of June. That loss is merely the latest in a string of losses totaling $73 billion since the end of 2004. And today, a Deutsche Bank analyst set a share-price estimate of zero -- arguing the automaker did not have enough cash to last the year.

How did GM get into this mess? Its board has kept on a CEO, Rick Wagoner, under whose watch GM stock has lost 95% of its value -- the stock dropped from $68.63 on June 1, 2000 when he took over to $3.33 today. There are two reasons for this: First, GM refused to invest the profits from its SUVs and trucks into more fuel-efficient vehicles that customers would want to buy as gas prices rose. Second, it depended too heavily on auto finance for its profits -- and given the current credit crisis, such dependence is fatal.

So, is GM worthless? From an investor perspective it is. But shutting it down completely would throw 2.5 million people out of work. I think GM should file for bankruptcy and fire its board and executives. If banks are not willing to give it the money it needs to operate in bankruptcy, then the government should step in.

If the government steps in, GM needs some major surgery so it can operate profitably as a smaller, more focused competitor. And it must develop a long-term strategy that allows GM to take market share away from its better-run competitors. Coming up with such a strategy will not be easy, but without one, it might be better to just liquidate GM rather than to keep it operating.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in GM securities.

Get the latest on cars and trucks
from GM and all brands at AOL Autos.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 02:46 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

Learn More About GM Cars

General Motors Brands:
Find Your Next Car

AOL Autos New Cars and Used Cars

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

    BioHealth Investor Headlines

    WalletPop Headlines

    My Portfolios

    Track your stocks here!

    Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

    BloggingStocks Partners

    More from AOL Money & Finance

    WalletPop Headlines