General Motors (NYSE: GM) has been losing market share for decades. Now it looks like GM will run out of cash in the next six months unless the government steps in to bail it out. And President-elect Obama seems to have concluded that GM is too big to fail and will provide the financing it needs to keep GM going. Is this the right thing to do?
Before addressing this question, let's look at GM's current financial condition. It reported a $4.2 billion third-quarter operating loss on Friday and said its available cash fell to $16.2 billion on September 30 from $21 billion at the end of June. That loss is merely the latest in a string of losses totaling $73 billion since the end of 2004. And today, a Deutsche Bank analyst set a share-price estimate of zero -- arguing the automaker did not have enough cash to last the year.
How did GM get into this mess? Its board has kept on a CEO, Rick Wagoner, under whose watch GM stock has lost 95% of its value -- the stock dropped from $68.63 on June 1, 2000 when he took over to $3.33 today. There are two reasons for this: First, GM refused to invest the profits from its SUVs and trucks into more fuel-efficient vehicles that customers would want to buy as gas prices rose. Second, it depended too heavily on auto finance for its profits -- and given the current credit crisis, such dependence is fatal.
So, is GM worthless? From an investor perspective it is. But shutting it down completely would throw 2.5 million people out of work. I think GM should file for bankruptcy and fire its board and executives. If banks are not willing to give it the money it needs to operate in bankruptcy, then the government should step in.
If the government steps in, GM needs some major surgery so it can operate profitably as a smaller, more focused competitor. And it must develop a long-term strategy that allows GM to take market share away from its better-run competitors. Coming up with such a strategy will not be easy, but without one, it might be better to just liquidate GM rather than to keep it operating.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
11-10-2008 @ 12:58PM
JOHN F. KIRWIN said...
The CEO's and Boards of Directors of all the companies are not held accountable. They are paid way to much and deliver very little. They are paid a salary, stock options, and bonus every year. They should be hit in the pocket book like every body else. Its time for them to pay the price. The tax payers are the ones who are always bailing them out.
11-10-2008 @ 1:28PM
Alan said...
The only solution for the big three is to
cut the pensions and health care for the current and past UAW workers.
When they hit 65 or 66 they will be able to get Medicare or medicaid which ever one applies.
As far as their pensions they will have to live on Social Security like the rest of us.
This should also apply to gov't, state and local workers also.
We have gone crazy with free healthcare and pensions even though they get paid well for their skills and educational levels.
It's time to take back our gov't
11-10-2008 @ 1:37PM
Linda said...
I agree with the bail out under 2 conditions:
1. They develop more fuel-efficient vehicles.
2. Get rid of the unions. I'm from the Detroit area and have heard many tales discussed among union employees. They have cots on site to nap, play cards and drink while on the job. Come on, let's get real...this needs to stop. No need for teamwork with these union jobs...they are protected to sit idle rather than do anything outside of their "specific job duties".
11-10-2008 @ 2:11PM
Paul said...
I hear all kinds of news that the automakers are asking for government bailout money. But very little about how the company is going to change its operating plan so that the money will be put to good use, instead of just being burned through like the rest of their bank.
11-10-2008 @ 1:56PM
henry said...
from your very first job 10 cents a hour should be paid into the employees own pension fund that he takes with him or her when he leaves.the person could match that.that comes to 400 dollars a year it should not be taxed over 50 years with intrest it would be a lot of money to retire on.you could end companies retirement funds
11-10-2008 @ 4:51PM
Run-A-Way Bill said...
The government cannot bail everyone out. If the Big 3 can't make & the government wants to be in the automotive industry, then combine them all, make the employees government employees and subject to reasonable wages & benefits compared to no job or benefits at all. I'm sure if the Big 3 fail, Toyota & VW will start making cars in the USA and they will be efficient & profitable. At LEAST fire all existing management and rehire new CEO that can live off $100,000 or less a year, as a base and the potential to make $500,000 (assuming they make the company profitable). I'm sure there are a lot of qualified individuals out there that cn do a better job for a whole lot less.
11-10-2008 @ 2:33PM
Linda said...
My point exactly, Paul. Linda
11-10-2008 @ 2:46PM
dick said...
I'm retired gm-uaw. The union agreed to consentions over and over only to have the GM CEO'S get big perks and raises.I'm union and damn proud. If anyone needs to take a hit it's the thirteenth floor.
11-10-2008 @ 2:59PM
Jerry said...
A book that I read years ago stated that when the auto companies were fat and happy that they just gave in to union demands. We all know that the honeymoon does not last forever. Good cooking is the only thing that does.
11-10-2008 @ 4:23PM
mike said...
GM and Ford have not put forth cheaper econo cars due to the high costs of labor. Nobody seems to be asking why the UAW has not been held accountable for their greedy stance on wages, given that the Big Three continue to produce products that consumers either don't want or cannot afford. They are doomed unless wages and benefits are brought into line, a necessity that probably won't happen until the final stages of chapter 7 liquidation. Unions ruined the industry.
11-10-2008 @ 9:37PM
PacificGatePost said...
Enough already.
ONLY VERY DRASTIC ACTION WILL SAVE DETROIT
CONGRESS: Here’s a radical plan…
http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/11/solution-for-detroit-gm-friends.html
It’s this, or bankruptcy. The American Auto industry should be saved but under new conditions.
11-10-2008 @ 3:43PM
Virgil Bierschwale said...
Come on now folks, you can't blame all of this on GM or their CEO.
For you to have sales, you have to have customers.
For you to have customers, customers have to have jobs.
I know that a lot of you are in denial and think this is only a cyclical change and eventually it will be over, but I think you are wrong because you can't tell me how many people are out of work and I'm slowly putting together the facts and figures to show that there is at least 10 million out of work and I'm beginning to think the figures will be above 20 million.
Out of approxmiately 150 million people that works, that is a fairly significant number and that is the reason that I believe all of your retailers, manufacturers and raw material producers are going to be in a big jam.
Do I hope that I am wrong ? Yep.
Do I think that I am wrong ? Nope.
If you have the data to prove that I am wrong, produce it. Not the summary line data by the way, we want details so that we can verify the accuracy of your data.
Virgil
http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com
11-10-2008 @ 3:42PM
GMAN said...
If the govt lets GM go belly up this whole country will be in a world of hurt. the great depression will look like a walk in the park
11-10-2008 @ 6:46PM
adam hartung said...
Remember when Circuit City was a favorite in "Good to Great" by Jim Collins? Remember when we thought being big gave you clout with customers and vendors to produce long-term returns (Michael Porter's 5 Forces Model)? It's time we recognize that the old approach to management doesn't work in a rapidly shifting competitive world. There are winners in today's market, but they follow a different approach. Read more at http://www.ThePhoenixPrinciple.com
11-10-2008 @ 4:09PM
barg said...
smuffus smibulus bargs
11-10-2008 @ 4:48PM
adam hartung said...
Remember when Circuit City was a favorite in "Good to Great" by Jim Collins? Remember when we thought being big like GM gave you clout with customers and vendors to produce long-term returns (Michael Porter's 5 Forces Model)? It's time we recognize that the old approach to management doesn't work in a rapidly shifting competitive world. There are winners in today's market, but they follow a different approach. Read more at http://www.ThePhoenixPrinciple.com
11-10-2008 @ 4:18PM
Linda said...
Unfortunately, the big 3 may not learn it's lesson until all of the jobs are shipped over seas. There's enough blame to go around with both blue & white color employees. I wish everyone could be honest and above board in resolving the problems before this happened ??
11-10-2008 @ 4:20PM
Linda said...
oops.... collar
11-10-2008 @ 5:08PM
pete andolina said...
Remember when you bought foreign cars and now your job is overseas,remember well because you are the real problem.Patriotism starts here,the USA, buy American, fool.Foriegn interests here take their profits elsewhere,you have betrayed a lot of Americans their future by buying foreign cars.There was enough competition with the big three.
11-11-2008 @ 9:51AM
David Laniewski said...
Quality has hurt GM. Over the years many have been burnt by the big 3 with junk vehicles that seemed to blow up after the warranty expired. They have been more intrested in profits than taking care of the lowly customer and now they are paying for this strategy in market loss"s. It will take a big turn around to win back these customers. Patriotism is not dead. build a dependable vehicle and people will choose Amercian built.