Starbucks 4Q 2008 earnings: Everybody Hurts ... when there are store closings


As I sit in my neighborhood Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) outlet, the song playing through the coffeeshop speakers is Everybody Hurts by REM. How appropriate. This fiscal year, especially these past two quarters, hurt Starbucks. Fiscal fourth quarter 2008 profits were $5.4 million, or a penny per share, after restructuring costs associated with store closings; but only 10 cents a share before charges, three cents less than analysts expected and a very painful 11 cents a share less than the year-ago period.

Ouch.

On a somewhat healthier note, net revenues were up a bit, to $2.5 billion, a 3% increase from a year earlier. Not a growth story exactly, but at least not negative! There's something! And CEO Howard Schultz had all kinds of positive spin, touting Starbucks as "more resilient than many other premium brands" (see how he snuck that "premium" in there? Talk about setting a subconscious benchmark!) and pointing out that he is "encouraged by our ability to drive increased traffic at a relatively low cost, as we did on Election Day" with the free tall coffee promotion.

Schultz calls the reaction to its Gold Card program "enthusiastic" and claims the company is well-positioned to provide "value" to its consumers. Really? These words you are using, Schultz: "value" and "premium," they seem at odds with one another. You can't have it both ways. Investors seem to agree; the stock was down 35 cents during the trading day, and an additional 40 cents after hours once the earnings news hit, to $9.88.

Higher costs were due to a number of factors; labor costs were up "as a percentage of revenue" (perhaps staffing for the promised growth rather than actual results?) and store costs were up for similar reasons -- however, inventory write-downs were higher for the period, a clue that Starbucks is backing away from its strategy of recording a large proportion of its income from coffee accessories, CDs, movies, books, toys, and the thousand other sorts of merchandise that has appeared next to the cash register in many stores.

2009 is looking somber, with a negative net store opening in the U.S. -- 225 closed stores and 205 new licensed stores. The company is taking a "cautious" approach overseas, with a net 700 new opened stores, many of which will be licensed. Management is majorly sandbagging its results for the first fiscal quarter of 2009, ending December 31, 2008, evidently hoping for very little from this holiday season.

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