The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index, which surveys 3,550 users, stood at 6.6 compared to 4 in October. A reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment. Meanwhile, the country-specific U.S. index rose to just 6.9 in November from 5 in October.
Economist Peter Dawson, who was not a part of the survey, told BloggingStocks Wednesday the November reading indicates that sentiment by business professionals is in-sync with macroeconomic fundamentals.
"This is the toughest stretch for business conditions in quite some time. Almost every indicator except some regional trade flows, and commodity prices, is trending in a bearish direction. In the U.S., business investment and consumer spending will continue to weigh on quarterly earnings and U.S. GDP," Dawson said. "On the consumer side, we're going to see a stretch of reduced consumer spending that probably will be worse than the 1981-82 Reagan Administration recession."
With the aforementioned as a backdrop, Dawson urged quick action on a U.S. fiscal stimulus package by Congress and President Bush / President-elect Obama. Ideally, he said, it would take the form of two packages: $300-400 billion now, and another $200-300 billion in February-March 2009.
Dawson said each package should contain infrastructure projects to create jobs, extension of unemployment benefits, homeowner relief / refinance assistance, assistance to states to offset rising budget deficits, and expansion of education programs, among other measures to pump-prime the U.S. economy.
"Basically, we need a new New Deal, and the sooner we get to work on it, the better," Dawson said. "Europe, Japan, India, Russia, and Brazil need to do the same."
Economic Analysis: No significant change in the Bloomberg index, which is not good news for investors. Further, as Dawson noted, the key now is getting fiscal stimulus packages in place in the U.S. and in the world's other major economies to counteract the pullback in business investment, lending, and consumer spending. China has done its part with its announced $586 billion fiscal stimulus plan: now it's time for other major economies to do the same.
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