I have to hand it to Secretary of the Treasury, Hank Paulson. He is willing to go in front of the country and admit that he made a mistake. I was there two months ago. Soon after he proposed the idea that the only way to save the financial system was to spend $700 billion in reverse auctions to buy toxic waste from financial institutions, I became convinced it would not work.
Why? Because there was no way to put a solid price on those assets. If the Treasury bid more than they were worth to the bank, then the taxpayer would take a loss. If the Treasury bid less than what the bank thought the assets were worth, then the bank would need to write off that loss against its capital. Since it would not be able to raise more capital, the bank would become a zombie.
The question is what to do with that money now that Paulson has realized that he was wrong. So far he's given away $159 billion to 24 banks. But there's nothing to stop them from using the money to pay $26.6 billion in bonuses. I think a cull and capitalize plan would work better. Such a plan would create a smaller number of very profitable and well capitalized banks -- and get rid of the rest.
With his credibility in tatters, perhaps Paulson should leave his current position and enjoy an unfortunately-delayed retirement.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
11-12-2008 @ 12:24PM
bt said...
I think the answer to the credit/housing crisis may be on the tip of our noses.
If the Government gave major tax incentives to "People" (not corporations) to purchase homes, the inventory of homes would decrease. In addition, buyers would now flock to appliance stores, furniture stores, home improvement outlets, etc spending money on their new home. Why not let purchasers write off 50% of their real estate taxes as a deduction on their Federal tax returns. Right now home owners get a deduction equal to their tax bracket, much less then 50% directly off the Federal returns. As for GM, Ford and Chrysler, its time for reorganization (Chapter 7 or 11). If they do not get rid of their Pension and Health care costs, no amount of money will make them competitive. They gave the store away to the unions when business was good. The Unions have to bite the bullet now and either give back or lose benefits through reorganization. No one is Bailing out my pension loses and lack of corporate sponsored health care.
11-12-2008 @ 12:52PM
D A HICK said...
BMTOKC 12:38:06 PM Nov 12 2008
Report This! SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- General Motors Corp. plans to increase its stake in its thriving joint venture with Chinese automakers SAIC and Wuling Automobile, media reports said Wednesday, citing a senior SAIC executive.
11-12-2008 @ 1:10PM
BHarrison said...
BT . . . does that mean that homeowners, people who worked hard and paid off their mortgages, and have lvied modestly within their means, will also be entitled to some EQUIVALENT "CONSIDERATIONS" from the governemnt? (Doesn't everyone get a taxr ebate?) So what are the hardworking people who have supported the stability of our economy going to get for their "contributions" to ur society? Anything? Or are we just going to be screwed into subsidizing those who were too irresponsible to live within their means?
11-12-2008 @ 1:12PM
Bernie said...
Paulson should give the rest of the money to AIG. Word on the street is they plan to have more caribbean "seminars."
11-12-2008 @ 1:25PM
DennisN said...
Paulson just advirtized to the whole world that he has NO idea of what to do to cure the "problem", but he has a 700 BILLION dollar sandbox to play in!
11-13-2008 @ 1:59PM
Paul Pemberton said...
Boy do I have a surprise for you all. Go to Snopes.com and type in American Samoa.
11-12-2008 @ 2:30PM
Ben said...
Hate to say it ... but didn't thousands of taxpayers said so before the bill was passed?
Now you say that you were wrong?
11-12-2008 @ 2:26PM
EAD said...
The politicians responsible for this mess, namely Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and Chuck Schumer should be placed on some desolate island somewhere, with
no means of communicating with the outside world. They should remain there
until the end of time.
11-12-2008 @ 2:32PM
tony lualhati said...
to the last phase of bush administration, they are still showing how shortsighted their management are, taking out hundred billion of dollars without definite plans is next to being an idiot.
11-12-2008 @ 2:40PM
drg said...
BT-YOU SAID IT JUST RIGHT. NOBODY IS BAILING ME OUT EITHER. TIME FOR
UNIONS TO PAY BACK.
11-12-2008 @ 2:52PM
beachpaul said...
BHarri.. we are going to get screwed for being prudent. Paulson was one of the jerks that walked us into this mess. That he is even still in the room...
11-12-2008 @ 2:51PM
Ira Marks said...
One former Goldman Sachs CEO (Paulson)is screwing up the country, while another (Corzine) is screwing up NJ..
Let's keep all future Goldman Sachs executives out of government work so they can only screw up their own company.
11-12-2008 @ 2:54PM
Hugh said...
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation, IT'S COMING BIG TIME AND SOON.
Don't say you haven't been warned.
11-12-2008 @ 2:57PM
Lonny Bartels said...
Can I have a billion, too? Everyone else is asking, why not the citizens who lived within their budgets and kept their noses clean for years? Heck, I'll just settle for $500,000, make it easy on the feds
11-12-2008 @ 8:28PM
bt said...
With regards to the increased tax deduction for new homeowners, we can't be looking over our shoulders and complaining that only new homeowners would get a 50% direct write off on their real estate taxes. (and it may take more then that) I would look at it and say, these new homeowners are going to ante up and purchase a home to get this economy primes again. We are all at risk if this economy totally tanks and out present homes are worthless. The Senate and Congress sold us down the river by giving 700 Billion dollars and allowing it to used for bonuses, speculation mergers etc. Now GM wants the money to bail out their Pension and Health care costs. Meantime, BUY GOLD.
11-12-2008 @ 3:27PM
Steven said...
Good job Paulson!
Everytime you speak the stock market goes down. What happended to government officials calming the market?
How can you scare everyone into needing 700 billion for the specific purpose of purchasing bad loans and then suddenly you really did not need it for that after all. You obviously don't know what you are doing and the stock market declining everytime you speak proves it!
Please stop speaking and quietly go away.
I am embarrased to say I am a republican.
11-12-2008 @ 3:35PM
mcurran74 said...
Why not take some of the money and get the homeowners that are behind caught up, this can be backed by a note to the gov't. This would stop foreclosures and give all homeowners a clean slate and get the loans back to being performing assets for the banks. At the same time the banks can modify the loans to make them more affordable.
11-12-2008 @ 3:59PM
Web Developer said...
@ mcurran74
Why reward only the homeowners who irresponsibly took on more debt than they could handle? Isn't that what Paulson & crew did in reponse to banks fiscal irresponsibility?
Failure needs to be allowed to happen. Natural Selection, or whatever term you prefer. A crash IS coming & any bailout is only prolonging the inevitable. You cant bail ANYone out w/ cash that is, itself, debt piled on top of debt.
11-12-2008 @ 4:08PM
Michael said...
Webmaster
Most of these homeowner have experienced a true hardship and are all not irresponsible. The hardship is now behind them and they may just need a fresh start. Paulson and the rest had their own reasons for getting this bill passed. Mortgage failure is usually best avoided if at all possible.
11-12-2008 @ 4:30PM
Web Developer said...
@ Michael,
I agree & am not belittling those in true hardship, but do you trust the Fed to decide who's worthy and who isn't?
I was just indirectly suggesting that a broader solution for all Americans might be fairer & that accountability is one trait that is missing from many of the players (despite Paulson's "admission"...he's got lots more to 'fess up to still).