On Monday I told a TV interviewer that General Motors (NYSE: GM) would probably not last the week. It is looking more like that prediction will come true. With $16.2 billion in cash, GM needs $10 billion to pay its bills. But it will go through that by the end of 2008 since it is probably in default on $6 billion worth of credit agreements which would require GM to pay back those loans immediately. And GM has already been bankrupt in an accounting sense for years -- its liabilities exceed its assets by $58 billion ($12 billion more than in 2007). This raises many questions: Why is GM in this condition? What are its options? Should the U.S. government step in? Does it matter? Where do the bailouts end?
GM's basic problem is that it spent decades making excuses for why it could not give customers superior value rather than building better vehicles. With 2.5 million jobs on the line, Chapter 7 -- a complete liquidation of its assets -- could throw all these people out of work. Who are these people? Auto companies are big buyers of manufactured steel, aluminum, iron, copper, plastics, rubber and electronics -- and their dealers are people too. One study estimates that the workers in these companies could lose $125 billion in income.
So the U.S. government could provide a financial guarantee and some money to encourage financial institutions to give debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing which would allow GM to operate in Chapter 11. As a condition of the deal, its top executives ranks should be replaced with strategists who can decide which parts of GM to close or sell, and which can operate profitably. A better solution would be a pre-packaged bankruptcy where new contracts with creditors would be negotiated before the filling -- but GM is probably too complex to accomplish this ahead of time.
We will stop bailing out people when we run out of bailout money and lobbyists to fight for it. Starting with the bailout of Bear Stearns, the U.S. lost any logical basis for turning down anyone seeking taxpayer money. For example, why did the U.S. think it was OK to give $29 billion to keep Bear Stearns from going under but was quite comfortable letting Lehman Brothers file its $639 billion bankruptcy? Cat got your tongue Hank?
The simple fact is that GM is big enough to hire the lobbyists it needs to make the case that what's bad for GM is bad for America. (And the average taxpayer is not.) The big economic crime is that GM's board kept supporting the CEO who presided over a 96% loss in shareholder value since he took over in June 2000. If GM had invested the profits from SUVs and vehicle financing that it made during the boom years into cars that customers were eager to buy, it would not be on the brink of bankruptcy.
If President Bush resigns this week, President-Elect Obama could take over and make a terrible choice (GM in Chapter 11) to avoid a catastrophic one (GM in Chapter 7). Since that won't happen, it looks to me like GM could be in Chapter 7 very soon -- adding another remarkable "accomplishment" to a historic legacy.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
11-12-2008 @ 9:52AM
Mike O said...
One man has the skills (and guts) to fix this problem: Mitt Romney.
He has turned around failing businesses and has enough street cred in metro-Detroit (thanks to his father's legacy) that the average joe would trust him.
11-12-2008 @ 9:54AM
Alan said...
GM can stop the bleeding and return to profits if they will only cut back their pensions and healthcare to their retiree's
It's this or they will go the way of the dodo!
Blame the UAW's union
11-12-2008 @ 10:08AM
Ed said...
The Board has to stop these ridiculous pay packages to non-performing CEO's or to any CEO for that matter. GM has putting out unreliable, overpriced vehicles for too long and the Unions contibute with their corruption. What a disgrace!!!I don't want my tax dollars going toward any help with these big money hungry companies.
11-12-2008 @ 10:08AM
william lindblad said...
A Long winded and wrong opinion. You really should take a better look at the ENTIRE industry - world wide. GM is not the only one in trouble and I suggest a look at Germany.
As to the state of the potential collapse of our domestic auto makers - it would be a disaster far greater than the Wall St. banks and insurance industry, and since the government chose to bail out the banks I think that what is left of our manufacturing potential HAS to be preserved. The supply side to the auto industry is vast and if they go - this goes too. In this scenario your job will also become insecure. Greenspan and other have called the present as a "once in a 100 year event". This is not quite true as the present is a "new and unique" event that has no real parallel. This is world wide and the consequences will not be known for many months in the future as this will not bottom before June 09. It will take the concerted efforts of the major governments to mitigate the damage.
11-12-2008 @ 10:46AM
AZ said...
Uh, I'm pretty sure if Bush resigns this week, Obama does not get to take over. Dick Cheney would. It's that pesky Constitution again.
11-12-2008 @ 11:17AM
CHARLIE said...
GM'S PROBLEMS GO A LOT DEEPER THAN CEO-BONUSE'S--THE MEMBERS OF THE BOARD HAVE RELATIVES WHO WANTED TO BE MOVIE STARS OR WRITERS.SINCE THEY COULDN'T DO THAT.THE BOARD CREATED THEIR ON MOVIE'S AND HIRED THESE RELATIVES TO MAKE MOVIE'S FOR THE WORKER'S TO GET PAID FOR 30 MIN'S AT LEAST 3 TIMES A YEAR TO WATCH THESE CREATIVE MORON'S.THEN THEY CREATED A MAGAZINE AND HIRED THESE RELATIVES TO WRITE AND PUBLISH MAG'S TO SEND TO THE WORKER'S ---WHICH I AM A RETIRED GM EMPLOYEE-I HAVE YET TO FIND ONE WORKER WHO READ ANYTHING IN IT BECAUSE IT ONLY HAD PICTURES OF EXE'S AND TOLD US WHAT A GREAT JOB THEY WERE DOING.THIS IS WHERE BILLION'S WENT
11-12-2008 @ 11:18AM
apo said...
Why isn't Toyota asking for a hand out? Or BMW and or Honda? The Boards of GM, Ford and Chrysler are the problems of poor management, however, we need to address their immediate needs and control the boards into the new market place of high gas mileage automobiles exclusively and secure our tax paying dollars with prefer stock in each company.
11-12-2008 @ 11:18AM
steve said...
Pension and healthcare to retirees are the unions problem, not GM's.In the last contract I believe that GM gave a lump sum to the union and now the union is responsible for retirees. GM's problem and has always been there problem is that the top excutives are bad at their jobs. They ran the company into the ground. And while they were doing so they were all getting large amounts money to do it. The CEO is an Idiot who couldn't manage a supermarket and he is running GM. This is years of neglect and mismanagement, the only thing I am surprised about is that the company still exists. This is capitalism, if management destroys the company they go bankrupt. The government has and should do nothing. This isn't an economic issue this is a mismangement issue. When the stock is up and things are good they want the government to keep their hands off. On the way down the want the government to help. Bye GM It was a good run, you lasted 5 years longer than you should have
11-12-2008 @ 11:29AM
oldpholks said...
Contrary to what GM management believes, American consumers are not idiots and will not buy inferior products. An easy solution to GM’s problem: clone the Toyota Prius!
11-12-2008 @ 11:33AM
Karl said...
Wrong answer. I worked down at GM in Brazil in the late 1980's and they are a global corporation. They operate well in many regions but have been bleeding cash in North America. Some can blame unions, poor management, govt, policies but the real deal is the globalist oil bankers who control things. They killed inovation at GM and the EV-1 years ago while buying the Hummer brand the next week! Why? Rebates from the Govt. for them. It was a combination of factors but mainly the emphasis on oil bankers profits was the key. However to lose all manufacturing in the US would be a death blow to the USA. these are real trade goods, real products, and needed here. Bankers produce nothing except schemes, professors pontificate, politicians take the graft, but it's time to see that cars and real products are the bottom line. David Rockefeller's CFR and Trilateral people may be globalists bent on destroying the USA while making a fortune on oil and the money but if the president of the USA has to drive a Kia limo? These "free trade" agreements killed us as Korea can import to the USA but we are restricted. If you want a real economy then you have to have the govt. support like Japan, China, Germany, with healthcare for workers from the govt. not the companies and recognize this is vital to our national interest. Ask Obama, Bush or David Rockefeller to build a new vehicle or do anything real. Yeah. Too many people want the "good life" without producing anything or doing real work. Time to change back to reality. While the criminals on Wall St. use billions from the bail out money for bonuses and snub their noses at peanuts for the manufacturing sector? Dead wrong.
11-12-2008 @ 11:33AM
Mike Sanders said...
GM looks like a "brain-dead" patient, on life support. Through the "miracles" of science, we can keep it breathing, but the "real GM" is dead. I hope that they've saved enough to give it a decent burial. GM deserves that, at least.
11-12-2008 @ 11:53AM
Don said...
Lets start with the gas guslers,for years we have been saying we want to get off depending on the middle east for our oil.Yet the auto makers continued to give us low mpg cars.No wonder we started buying the Jap autos. The unions with their demands of more more more and the companies failure to put a stop to it.The big time payouts to the CEOs and now they want us to bail them out. I say if we do we the tax payer have to get somthing in return.40 MPG cars at a lower pricethan the Japs. A reduction in the pay and benifits for the autoworkers. A drastic cut in pay and benifits for CEOs Then and only then should we even think about giving them any cash
11-12-2008 @ 11:54AM
pat said...
GM's PROBLEM?
Go back to what Charle said about the "RELATIVES" of the Execx....ADD this open letter to Troy Clarke........
Sir,
I received your appeal to the US Government thru a chain.
I recognize that having an US automaker fail is very grave danger to the US Economy, I support your appeal under certain conditions.
1. What is GM prepared to do differently than all the cost cutting and jobs / assets shedding done and planned?
2. Why has there been NO discussion of ejecting the personnel who brought us to this position? Granted outside forces converged, but it was the job of some of you to do "what if..." scenarios?
3. Can you promise the GE Jack Welch way of managing of shedding the bottom 10 % performing employees ? This MUST include everyone fro Rick Wagoner downwards !
4. The NEPOTISM, promoting the sycophants,the incestuous mutual admiration societies in GM is very clear to most GM employees. What can you promise to correct this?
5. As a condition to get this "loan", do you and the top 10 % of the GM managers agree to work for the wages of the AVERAGE middle managers (I think you call them 8 th levels?). This to last till you pay back !
6. As a condition do you ALL agree to jettison ALL Golden Parachutes?
7. Do you all agree to buy & go get service on your own vehicles? See how your employees and customers cope with real life ?!
8. After the loans are made and you have not succeeded in two years do you all agree to leave the company and receive only one pension, that of an eight level employee?
9. Do you agree to replace the board with a more independent minded board to be held responsible to high governance standards? This board should not hesitate to replace any & all Officers!
10. Do all of you managers in Detroit agree to spend 75 % of your time "in the field"? This without the entourage of course ! Sell at least one car a week on a Dealer's sales floor? When traveling, stay at a Holiday Inn or lesser hotel?
Sir, I hope you and your team are proud enough to reply to this email YOURSELF and to implement (at least bring this up verbatim in one of your many meetings?
I stand ready to go to fight for you (& me!) by contacting everyone in my Universe of Customers, employees, relatives, friends etc.
Sincerely
Pat
11-12-2008 @ 12:42PM
TC said...
Hello to everyone, Im a small business owner and I don't see the government helping us with bundles of cash. If GM can't make it, than file bankruptcy like everyone else. This bailout plan is a joke with all the CEO'S going on golf tournments, big parties, etc. Its corporate greed that got them where they are in the first palce, let them all sink !!!!!!
11-12-2008 @ 2:53PM
nick said...
Let them file. Maybe the dumb ass unions who have raped the company for years, getting wages way over what we folks out in the small town America get, and free health care, and the bennies go on and on. Close them up and move south where we have learned how unions can screw everything up. People got to get back to working for a good wage and not wanting all.
11-12-2008 @ 3:00PM
Heather said...
GM is in this mess because Amercians dont give a shit about this country anymore. GM does make fuel efficient vehicles. Look into it when they did the top 5 companies that had the most fuel efficient vehicles Toyota barely made it. GM was in there. We have a 2007 Tahoe and a 2008 Corvette and a 1997 Corvette all of which do just fine on gas. Americans were crying about high gas prices but look what we get when it goes down. We have to get oil back up and we have to start buying things again. You can still go buy a car we had no trouble at all. Wake up and see whats going on. We are the problem and only we can change it, not Obama or anyone else!
11-12-2008 @ 3:04PM
Steven said...
Good job Paulson!
I am a republican but having a hard time calling myself one these days in public.
Usually after someone in Paulson's position speaks it should calm the market but every time he speaks it sinks lower. How can you demand 700 billion, get it based upon what you said you needed it for and now suddengly you don't need it for that any more. You have no credibility. Do us all a favor. Don't speak and quietly leave.
11-12-2008 @ 6:04PM
margie said...
Stop saying all the bad stuff, it is an american product, stop buying japan, nafta started this and this will trickle down to all of you, wake up stupid america, where is the pride, gm,ford,chrsyler, hey the are american,american workers, you are so jealous, because these people work hard and not behind a desk, they deserve there money, i am proud to say i buy american, i remember the wars, wake up
11-13-2008 @ 4:44AM
aristotle said...
All of you who don't care or even actually want to see GM fail are totally ignorant of the magnitude of the catastrophe you are wishing on your neighbors, and in turn your own family. GM survived two world wars and The Great Depression, but what we are ALL facing now is a Global Meltdown!!! Making cars is about the last manufacturing capability that we have left. Shouldn't we at least keep something ALIVE here in the States-just in case we come out of this ABYSS with some shred of a country left??? Just a thought.
11-13-2008 @ 2:44PM
lanny said...
Go ahead let the big three go out of business, you don't care, you will. How long do you think foreign companys will continue to make cars here. They will be gone in sixty seconds. Car production will go to the cheapest labor or Japan. People could pull our industry out of this BUY AMERICAN. Support our country and stop listening to the lies about poor America quality.