President-elect Barack Obama is backing a plan in which U.S. automakers would receive $50 billion in federal aid in exchange for structural changes and oversight by an auto czar or board. An auto czar or board would be patterned after the bailout of Chrysler in 1979 or the City of New York in 1975.
During those two assistance / loan guarantee efforts, the U.S. Government ended up making money on the deals. The revamped Chrysler returned to profitability and actually led both General Motors and Ford in several vehicle categories in the ensuing decades. The streamlined, pro-business City of New York experienced an economic, civic, and cultural renaissance in the 1990s that was surpassed only by the 'Roaring 20s.'
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Thursday a bankruptcy by General Motors or Ford "is economically and psychologically unacceptable." If both filed for bankruptcy and operations were disrupted, "U.S. unemployment would soar over 10%" and the U.S. economy would incur into its deepest recession since the 1981-82 Reagan Administration recession, he said.
"There would also be a psychological component that would weigh on the stock market. I would not be surprised if the Dow lost 1,000 points or more in one day, if GM or Ford ceased operations," Wang said.
In addition to oversight, Wang said the Big Three auto makers, particularly GM and Ford, will have to undertake major restructurings. "There's a whole layer of management in GM and Ford that has to go. It is simply bureaucracy that isn't producing anything and is wasting money," Wang said. "Assembly processes would also be streamlined."
Wang said if Congress and current President Bush cannot agree on an immediate assistance package, the U.S. Federal Reserve should approve an emergency, temporary loan, to be repaid when Congress passes a permanent assistance package. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, favors a large assistance package for the Big Three, with conditions to protect the taxpayer, and said the House will consider a package next week in a lame-duck session.
Auto Sector / Economic Analysis: With all major Democrats favoring an assistance package, one major question remaining is whether President Bush will sign the legislation. Earlier reports indicated that Bush would sign the legislation in exchange for Congressional approval of a free trade agreement with Columbia, but White House spokeswoman Dana Perino denied the quid prod quo.
Bottom Line: Look for Bush to sign the legislation in exchange for some tangible that benefits primarily Republican Party constituencies -- perhaps an investment credit or one-time tax cut for a sector, etc.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
11-13-2008 @ 10:59AM
Adam Smith said...
"The sky is falling."Not. The democrat bailout is only to support the unions. Ford and GM are not competitive because of bad management and union contracts which place the domestic manufacturers at a cost disadvantage relative to Toyota, Honda etc. The world will not end if both Ford and GM restructure through bankruptcy.
11-13-2008 @ 12:50PM
frank said...
Wang doesn't understand Ch. 11 Bankruptcy,
GM or Ford would not stop operating on a day to
day basis, a Trustee or Trustees would working
with UAW and Shareholders would craft a new
plan to create the emerging companies. This
story is Chicken Little, trying to leave the exist-
ing people and legacy people in the same place,
this will not help either, both need new objective
leaders and workers.
11-13-2008 @ 11:13AM
Jason said...
Adam Smith is right on. It is very painful but companies like these should be allowed to fail. It's just like a natural forest fire.
www.eeinvesting.com
11-13-2008 @ 11:16AM
beachpaul said...
Shakeout not Bailout.
11-13-2008 @ 11:36AM
Lee said...
The biggest problem with GM is Labor Unions. The added cost of a new car to cover Labor perks....is $150.00. Toyota's is a fraction of this. I have seen many companies fail because of Labor demands. Labor needs to back off its demands. They have ridden this horse right into the ground.
GM is just too big to allow it to fail. The US bailed out Chrysler yrs ago, and it worked. Let's do the same for GM...and save a million jobs.
11-13-2008 @ 11:38AM
Jeff said...
go forth with the Shakeout!
11-13-2008 @ 12:00PM
Phil said...
Adam, The welfare bailout came from the sky is falling bush AIG and wall street! remember? You know socialized wall street? Thats where it comes from ! You know the sky is falling and we have to bailout wall street or it will melt ? Well the banks got their money , AIG threw a party and is still hung over . And the banks still are not lending ? If they were the big three would not need a loan ! LOL LOL So when you run your mouth you have no clue !
11-13-2008 @ 12:03PM
D. McCullam said...
Everyone has their own personal agenda as witnessed by this story. It's fascinating to note that the bailout funds for the auto industry are initially for their retirement funding, which does not produce a any cars, and secondly for working capital to year end. On January 1, 2009 comes the major request - try $200 - 300 billion for starters.
Before any involvement by the FED, autos should file for bankruptcy, restructure, rid themselves of their union contracts which currently assure their demise and come out competitive with the world. It sure as hell won't hurt their current stock values and it would be a great public statement that the FED will try to avoid pouring more money down a rat hole.
Our government can't, or won't, manage themselves, and we think the Fed is the answer to our financial problems
11-13-2008 @ 12:05PM
earl king said...
No amount of money will help failed business models survive. GM owes $30 billion to its suppliers and $14 billion to the UWA pension fund.....how will paying those off help them sell more cars?
11-13-2008 @ 12:13PM
Phil said...
And to all the pin heads who think its the union that is killing the auto industries LOL LOL It can't be the Bush and the republicans who controled the house and sen for 12 yrs til jan 07? SOARING gas prices and a war sucking the life out of our economy ! But then we live in a 2/3RDS consumer economy ! So to keep good paying jobs would be the way out of the recession ! Consumers consuming ! But then under Bush we have lost over 8 million jobs in 6 yrs ! DAAAAA... Keep talking ANAL-YST... Thats what they truly are!
11-13-2008 @ 12:17PM
Leo said...
pick up the book"on a clear day you can see GM"
Very telling by Jon Deloren a former GN boss
11-13-2008 @ 12:50PM
Phil said...
The pension protection act of 06 says all defined pensions are to be fully funded ! Thanks to the delphi bankruptcy this is a law now ! When cerberus bought Chrysler Daimler fully funded the uaw pension fund 125% and gave cerberus 2.5 billion to start with !That was last yr ! Now the have a fully funded pension fund and 11 billion dollars ? Gee how did Chrysler do that in this economy! But then the anal-yst on fox and all the news says Chrysler is broke? lol lol GM, FORD maybe.. so for a 2/3RDS consumer economy to boom you need consumers buying ! A 7.00 pt time job at WAL-MART do not buy homes cars washers dryers big screen TVs and so on ! DAAAA...
11-13-2008 @ 12:50PM
Alan said...
You have to be plain stupid to allow any of the big three to really close down.
Who is going to build our tanks in case we have to go to war once again?
Maybe in case of a war we should have China build our tanks.
Morons!!!!!!!!!!!!!
11-13-2008 @ 1:28PM
frank said...
remember, mom-baseball-apple-pie and CHEVROLET ? well, 3 out of 4 aint bad!!! let them cut profits and fight their own way out. ---- competition !!!!!!!!!!
11-13-2008 @ 1:03PM
Charles Clifford said...
So here's the plan:
1)Take the big three into bankruptcy, but don't cease operations if possible
2)Shed the Unions; gov't can help with the pensions
3)Have a national lottery where we each have a 1 in 20 chance of winning a coupon, good for $10,000 off on the purchase of a new, American-made automobile.
11-13-2008 @ 1:03PM
Phil said...
To all the so called Harvard and fox news economist and anal-yst you all seem to hear ? Economics 101 ! By their own words , this is a 2/3RDS consumer economy in the United States !So to kill good paying jobs like we have in the finanicals and auto and every sector of the USA economy is out right stupid! to get the USA economy going and out of this recession you need consumers buying ! You know consuming !Not losing millions of good paying jobs . And losing good paying jobs by the millions ! Its so easy a cave man know it! But not the anti union people ?? LOL no CLUE ...
11-13-2008 @ 1:43PM
Charles Clifford said...
I fear a time is coming when all unions in the private sector have died. Only public sector unions will survive, such as the postal workers union. Government workers will make twice or three times as much as private sector workers. The tax-payers will get angry, setting off a war between the taxpayers and the public sector unions.
11-13-2008 @ 2:03PM
Charles Clifford said...
Somebody here said GM's labor costs are at a $150 per car premium. But I heard they are losing $2,300 per car. What caused the other $2,150 loss? I'm asking, I don't have the answer.
11-13-2008 @ 2:07PM
Randy said...
The union is not to blame in all of this mess. Rick Waggonner couldn't run a "guess your weight'booth at a carnival and he's driven the company down even with union concessations for his whole tenure at GM
11-13-2008 @ 2:27PM
jim said...
the bailout wont work..........payin on pensions, insurance isnt gonna save these companies...........let them fall, then rebuild them without the uaw..........folks like franks,pelosi,reid are at fault for the whole mess...........let it all fall then rebuild.............get all the greedy aholes out.