GM or Ford bankruptcy 'is economically and psychologically unacceptable'

Detroit's Big Three automakers are finding out assistance is a two-sided process.

President-elect Barack Obama is backing a plan in which U.S. automakers would receive $50 billion in federal aid in exchange for structural changes and oversight by an auto czar or board. An auto czar or board would be patterned after the bailout of Chrysler in 1979 or the City of New York in 1975.

During those two assistance / loan guarantee efforts, the U.S. Government ended up making money on the deals. The revamped Chrysler returned to profitability and actually led both General Motors and Ford in several vehicle categories in the ensuing decades. The streamlined, pro-business City of New York experienced an economic, civic, and cultural renaissance in the 1990s that was surpassed only by the 'Roaring 20s.'

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Thursday a bankruptcy by General Motors or Ford "is economically and psychologically unacceptable." If both filed for bankruptcy and operations were disrupted, "U.S. unemployment would soar over 10%" and the U.S. economy would incur into its deepest recession since the 1981-82 Reagan Administration recession, he said.


"There would also be a psychological component that would weigh on the stock market. I would not be surprised if the Dow lost 1,000 points or more in one day, if GM or Ford ceased operations," Wang said.

In addition to oversight, Wang said the Big Three auto makers, particularly GM and Ford, will have to undertake major restructurings. "There's a whole layer of management in GM and Ford that has to go. It is simply bureaucracy that isn't producing anything and is wasting money," Wang said. "Assembly processes would also be streamlined."

Wang said if Congress and current President Bush cannot agree on an immediate assistance package, the U.S. Federal Reserve should approve an emergency, temporary loan, to be repaid when Congress passes a permanent assistance package. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, favors a large assistance package for the Big Three, with conditions to protect the taxpayer, and said the House will consider a package next week in a lame-duck session.

Auto Sector / Economic Analysis: With all major Democrats favoring an assistance package, one major question remaining is whether President Bush will sign the legislation. Earlier reports indicated that Bush would sign the legislation in exchange for Congressional approval of a free trade agreement with Columbia, but White House spokeswoman Dana Perino denied the quid prod quo.
Bottom Line: Look for Bush to sign the legislation in exchange for some tangible that benefits primarily Republican Party constituencies -- perhaps an investment credit or one-time tax cut for a sector, etc.
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Last updated: May 23, 2012: 12:17 PM

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