President-elect Barack Obama is backing a plan in which U.S. automakers would receive $50 billion in federal aid in exchange for structural changes and oversight by an auto czar or board. An auto czar or board would be patterned after the bailout of Chrysler in 1979 or the City of New York in 1975.
During those two assistance / loan guarantee efforts, the U.S. Government ended up making money on the deals. The revamped Chrysler returned to profitability and actually led both General Motors and Ford in several vehicle categories in the ensuing decades. The streamlined, pro-business City of New York experienced an economic, civic, and cultural renaissance in the 1990s that was surpassed only by the 'Roaring 20s.'
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Thursday a bankruptcy by General Motors or Ford "is economically and psychologically unacceptable." If both filed for bankruptcy and operations were disrupted, "U.S. unemployment would soar over 10%" and the U.S. economy would incur into its deepest recession since the 1981-82 Reagan Administration recession, he said.
"There would also be a psychological component that would weigh on the stock market. I would not be surprised if the Dow lost 1,000 points or more in one day, if GM or Ford ceased operations," Wang said.
In addition to oversight, Wang said the Big Three auto makers, particularly GM and Ford, will have to undertake major restructurings. "There's a whole layer of management in GM and Ford that has to go. It is simply bureaucracy that isn't producing anything and is wasting money," Wang said. "Assembly processes would also be streamlined."
Wang said if Congress and current President Bush cannot agree on an immediate assistance package, the U.S. Federal Reserve should approve an emergency, temporary loan, to be repaid when Congress passes a permanent assistance package. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, favors a large assistance package for the Big Three, with conditions to protect the taxpayer, and said the House will consider a package next week in a lame-duck session.
Auto Sector / Economic Analysis: With all major Democrats favoring an assistance package, one major question remaining is whether President Bush will sign the legislation. Earlier reports indicated that Bush would sign the legislation in exchange for Congressional approval of a free trade agreement with Columbia, but White House spokeswoman Dana Perino denied the quid prod quo.
Bottom Line: Look for Bush to sign the legislation in exchange for some tangible that benefits primarily Republican Party constituencies -- perhaps an investment credit or one-time tax cut for a sector, etc.
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
11-13-2008 @ 3:10PM
Tom said...
The Gov. and State took my job from private industry and put me out of work with tax payer dollars. Since nobody cares about Human Rights lets have the Gov. take over the G.M., Ford and Chrysler and the Gov. make cars. You know what, they would screw this up. I asked a Politician about all of this debt. He said I don't care, I wouldn't be around when it comes due. Gov. hasn't learned you don't bail out inefficant companies, you let them die.
11-13-2008 @ 6:39PM
mark said...
Ford will weather this storm, they are only slow because of lending and slowdown in general economy. they still produce a quaility truck and car at fair price, they should layoff temporary and weather the storm.
11-13-2008 @ 8:06PM
kurt said...
let them reorganize under bankruptcy and get rid of the uaw. then they can be profitable again
11-13-2008 @ 10:34PM
M. Max Muqtadir said...
Supporting GM, Ford & Chrysler is not a bailout--- it is saving your own job (as has happened in Finance, Aerospace, Defence, etc). Automotive Industry is the manufacturing hub & backbone of USA and any nation that loses its manufacturing hub-- slowly breaks its own backbone with its own two hands.
As far as unions are concerned, it is not true that a every union worker is making $50.00/hr. They were at one time but not now. Though, I myself, am not a union member and no one from my family, relatives or friends is a union member; they (unions) do play a strong balancing role in the work and business environment. It is very easy to blame them for every problem which is non-sensical and un-realistic and not true.
Though it is true that US Auto Industry has made mistakes and some major mistakes. But tell which Industry has not. Name one?
Finally, as the Government has helped the Financial Industry and indirectly helps defence (Boeing & others) -- which it should-- and helps many others (but does not call it a "bailout"), the time is now to support the GM, Ford and Chrysler. This helps to preserve over 20+ million jobs in US (which includes the suppliers to automotive industry which are located all over USA--NY to LA and Michigan to Florida).
The US Automotive competitions outside US are secretly wishing & hoping that US Automotive industry fails so that they can then rule the US manufacturing base--- and then control--- the strength and the brain-power of US' growth machine and then take and transfer the funds outside US.
Does anyone remember what Daimler (Mercedez) did to Chrysler? All of Chrysler's cash (over $8+ Billion US), at time of merger between Chrysler and Daimler, was siphoned off to Europe. Chrysler was not allowed to develop its own products but only allowed to copy and buy from Daimler-- a recipe for failure and weakness of a strong company. Do we really want the same to happen to the other manufacturers in the Auto Industry? I sure hope not!
Support The US Automotive Industry's Financial Call For Help! It Is In "Your" Interest! Indirectly or Directly Your Job Depends On It!
11-14-2008 @ 1:51AM
Ken said...
To those of you that think we should let GM fail, you dont know much about the auto industry or the unions.You really need a history lesson before you condem something you know little about. Just how much do you think an auto worker makes,not as much as most of you think and far less than the wheeler dealers on wall street that caused this mess.As for the unions if it was'nt for them even you would be makeing far less in wages, there be no reason to pay you more than third world wages.Far to many people in this country allow they'er jealousy and ignorance to rule common scenes.
11-14-2008 @ 5:11AM
Joyce said...
I think that it is a terrible shame that we can afford to send millions to Iraq & Aphganistan rebuilding and cann't afford to lend to our own companies that are in need. I also think that the upper management should forfeit some of their high pay , bonuses and other perks when their company is in need as a sign of good faith that they want to pull the company back into profitability. I do agree though that the unions have a degree of responsibility for the high expenses that these companies incur.
11-14-2008 @ 7:52AM
hash5090 said...
The United States textile and apparel industries were allowed to "go under" and put 2 1/2 million people out of work. No one in government cared. The textile and apparel industries never asked for a bailout. They only wanted a level playing field in order to compete with countries with low wages, nonexistent child labor laws and no enforced safety or environmental regulations. Even that request was denied by both Republican and Democratic administrations and Congresses.
11-14-2008 @ 8:13AM
Ray said...
Great!! It is a free for all when the s _ _ t hits the fan on bailouts and we, the taxpayer will pay for years. Aren't these big auto makers in bed with the oil companies. Ask them for low interest loans since cars need gas, don't the oil companies see this? And if they don't loan money after record 60-70 billion dollar profits, clean up the Exxon Valdez spill.
11-14-2008 @ 10:48AM
Alouisis said...
Not only is bankruptcy acceptable, it is inevitable and necessary.
No batted an eyelash when United, Continental, etc went bankrupt. Perhaps that is because these airlines were employee owned and the ones that got screwed the worst were the employees.
Bad management that cannot operate the copmpany effectively needs to be REPLACED not paid millions to ruin the company and then paid millions more to ruin it again.
11-15-2008 @ 8:41AM
lou said...
Unionphobic: Person with a great irrational fear and hatred of unions and union jobs.
Is this now a true psycho-phobia?
11-15-2008 @ 8:45AM
lou said...
to alouisis: I agree. so why aren't we letting freddie mac, fannie mai, Aig, etc. file bankruptcy. Screw them, too. Get rid of the high paid CEOs and overpaid white collar workers and rebuild from there. After all it must be their mismanagement that brought down the financial structure of this country.That is also a much needed improvement. Don't you think?
11-19-2008 @ 2:20PM
danny said...
why is it that congressmen from the states where the foreign cars are built, ex. ala. are against the bailout but get federal tax relief from the other states, then gives the foreign companies special tax incentives to build in there states.
11-17-2008 @ 6:21PM
ani321 said...
stop knocking the Unions after all if the Autoworkrs would not have been making good money then all other industries would be making less money and stop beeing jealous of our pensionfunds and healthcare benefits we worked for it some of us breaking our backs on them assembly lines.Why dont you demand benefits ? So you wait until the foreign Autofactories in the US get older
they will demand the benefits that we have because as you get older you wonder what the heck did I work for so long for! If they industrie goes broke so will America and stop buying foreign Cars all the profits are going back to them Countries .Consumer Report and Edmunds wrote that we build our Cars just as good and better now . Wake up!!
11-26-2008 @ 3:17PM
Randall S. Gordon said...
Hell Yea let the big 3 go bankrupt!!!
What good is it going to do for the government to give the big 3 auto-makers money if it going to be absorbed by debt? The government should force the big 3 to file bankrupcy. This way they would start with a clean slate and no debt. Then every penny the government gives them will be used to retool and restructure. This also allows the big 3 to reissue stock shares and raise moeny. The old stock shares would turn to warrants. This is the only way the big 3 will stay alive.
11-30-2008 @ 8:23PM
kolo said...
I can't believe how uniformed some of you are. The big three cannot declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy and re-organize. Who's going to buy a car from a bankrupt company? Are you going to spend 10 to 50 thousand dollars on a vehicle that you aren't sure you'll be able to get parts for five to ten years down the road? What do you think the resale of that vehicle will be? Don't use Oldsmobile as your example, because the only reason Oldsmobiles still have value is that GM is still in business and provides parts & service for them.
If you do buy a big three vehicle, who's going to service it? The dealers that were driven into bankruptcy along with the auto companies? You think they can stay in business without new car sales? Where will dealers get the parts to repair your vehicle? From suppliers who were driven into bankruptcy by the loss of business when the big three went under?
Think foreign car makers will benefit by the big three going bankrupt? How many suppliers do you think they have in common? Many auto suppliers are in fragile condition, too. A bankruptcy by any of their big customers will wreak havoc on them. Think they can borrow the money to keep going in this economy?
Although tragic, the difference between
an automotive bankruptcy and an airline bankruptcy is the loss of manufacturing capability versus the loss of a service.
Also your information about their stock is wrong. When a company emerges out of bankruptcy, they issue new stock. Their old stock is as worthless as the paper it's printed on.
What if the big three declare chapter 7? THEY SELL THEIR ASSETS. They do not continue to produce anything!! Their retirees lose their health-care benefits and their pension fund gets taken over by the Federal government. The Feds only guarantee up to a maximum of $50,000/year and that amount is reduced for age for early retirees, many of whom left to help their company to help it survive by keeping younger workers.
So you'd rather give $700 billion to Wall Street paper pushers who don't create anything and have pissed away your savings RATHER THAN LOAN $25 billion to companies who have a track record of creating jobs, paying their taxes, and helping millions with pensions and health-care that would otherwise end up at the Federal governments doorstep?
Where will the Feds get the resources to help anyone when the big three and the 10 million people employed nationwide by the big three quit paying taxes?
WAKE UP AMERICA!
12-03-2008 @ 11:43PM
Neil said...
To: ALL AMERICAN'S
It is inportant for each of us to contact our Congressmen & women TODAY and tell them -
DO NOT US OUR TAX DOLLARS TO BAIL OUT AMERICAN CAR MAKERS!!
They need to go reorganize like any other busineses.
They MUST CUT THE OUTRAGIOUS WHITE COLLAR & UNION WAGES!!!
UNIONS ARE DESTROYING AMERICA" ability to compete in the golbal markets!!!
IT IS NOW OR NEVER - AMERICA
1-03-2009 @ 8:12AM
john said...
if businesses keep failing,this country will go into a depression. It will take years to go out of. Even if your not hurting now, you will be. How can a person earning 7 an hour, pay for lawyers, homes. cars and alot of other things making 7 an hour. We will have 4-5 families living in one house. Driving one car for the nezt 20 years. We need to stop this cycle now. If we need to pour billions into the country, I say lets do it. My father grow up in the Great Depression and it wasn't pretty..
GOD BLESS US ALL.....