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Nero in charge as global economy burns

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Nero was a Roman emperor who was rumored to have played a lyre in his palace in July 64 while Rome burned for six days. And to paraphrase Mark Twain, history may not be repeating itself now; but it sure is rhyming. The 30 developed economies are receding -- expected to shrink 0.3% in 2009. Meanwhile, in the U.S., foreclosures are up 25% since last year and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT), which was thought to be the place everyone would shop in a recession, now forecasts fourth quarter earnings per share to be as much as 7% lower than analysts expected. And the S&P 500 has lost 41.4% of its value in the last year.

So why does this feel like Nero's Rome? Two things: Hank Paulson -- who has consistently made confident predictions that later proved to be wrong -- has done so again. And, Washington, which was required by the terms of the $810 billion rescue plan to report on its progress after 30 days, has missed its deadline. As I posted yesterday, Paulson admitted that his plan to save the world by using reverse auctions to buy toxic waste was DOA. But the subtext of speech was that he does not have a clue about what to do -- and he has his eye on the exit door.

Meanwhile, a special inspector -- to be appointed by Bush -- and a Congressional Oversight Panel, which was supposed to check the dictatorial powers that Paulson originally asked for, has no staff members. This means that the taxpayers do not know exactly where the $290 billion that Treasury has committed so far has been spent. Simply put, the economy is getting worse, the program to restore it is rudderless, there is no public information on how the money has been spent, and nobody is in a position to provide that information.

It's not exactly a repeat of ancient Rome. While I doubt anyone in the White House knows how to play the lyre, the global economy is going up in flames.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, will be published by Portfolio on December 26, 2008. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 05:03 PM

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