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Serious Money: eBay auction off PayPal -- create bidding war

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This is the third in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.

The most valuable asset eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) has is PayPal, the dominant internet financial transaction facilitator. When I started imagining what might happen if eBay started auctioning off its parts I envisioned that PayPal would be worth the highest premium.

I think there would be dozens of interested companies that would find it highly advantageous to acquire PayPal.

The reason eBay bought PalPal in the first place was that they had first hand experience trying to compete with it when it was a separate company, and even with its huge base of customers, eBay could not build much traction. As the old saying goes, "if you can't beat them, join them", or in this case buy them.

For starters, all of the major credit card companies would be very interested with MasterCard Inc'A' (NYSE: MA) and Visa (NYSE: V) leading the bidding and beleaguered American Express (NYSE: AXP) trying to find a way too.

Then there are the few prospering banks still left standing that would have to give this potential acquisition strong consideration. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) which has already bought out Countrywide Financial and will soon add Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) would find this a must have. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has added Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) to its group of enterprises and might be best suited to expand the company given its growing resources. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) that recently agreed to acquire Wachovia Corp (NYSE: WB) after staying on the sidelines most of the year might want PayPal, but I do not think it would pay up.

Given this might be a one time shot at market dominance, or at least leadership many less obvious banks might pop up to surprise everyone. Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) is a new colossus in wealth management but it is also a huge player in the movement of money internationally and might prove a good fit in that regard. It is also much more focused than the aforementioned banks.

Alas, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) as the first big bank to aggregate financial services companies into a one stop shop would love to add PayPal to the list. However, when it added highly leveraged derivatives to its portfolio it bit off more than it could chew so it is no longer a player, just trying to keep its nose above water.

Perhaps one of Citigroup's largest shareholders might bid on PayPal. The Sovereign Wealth Fund of Dubai probably could not be out bid for it and since PayPal is not a bank I do not think there would be government restrictions on the deal.

Here's the dark horse opportunity, Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) recently reconstituted as a bank to save its butt may be looking for new opportunities and find PayPal very tempting. Goldman has often been in on big deals but now it may want to be the big deal! It is too soon for Goldman to have purged itself of the traders' mentality. It remains among the top merger and acquisition companies in the world.

Of course, PayPal would have three major suitors that would keep it in the hands of an Internet force. Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) is a huge PayPal user; Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is looking for the next big thing; and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has piles of money and no new ideas might snap it up.

What company wins the brawl?

If PayPal were auctioned it might be valued higher than Ebay is in it's entirety at the current low market capitalization. However, for this to happen eBay would have to sell itself. A merger is not out of the question. If this wild idea ever gained credence my money would be on Mr. Softie.

If you are interested in the first two stories click on the following links:

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of EBAY, JPM and WFC.

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Last updated: November 09, 2009: 12:57 AM

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