This is the third in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.
The most valuable asset eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) has is PayPal, the dominant internet financial transaction facilitator. When I started imagining what might happen if eBay started auctioning off its parts I envisioned that PayPal would be worth the highest premium.
I think there would be dozens of interested companies that would find it highly advantageous to acquire PayPal.
The reason eBay bought PalPal in the first place was that they had first hand experience trying to compete with it when it was a separate company, and even with its huge base of customers, eBay could not build much traction. As the old saying goes, "if you can't beat them, join them", or in this case buy them.
For starters, all of the major credit card companies would be very interested with MasterCard Inc'A' (NYSE: MA) and Visa (NYSE: V) leading the bidding and beleaguered American Express (NYSE: AXP) trying to find a way too.
Then there are the few prospering banks still left standing that would have to give this potential acquisition strong consideration. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) which has already bought out Countrywide Financial and will soon add Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) would find this a must have. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has added Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) to its group of enterprises and might be best suited to expand the company given its growing resources. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) that recently agreed to acquire Wachovia Corp (NYSE: WB) after staying on the sidelines most of the year might want PayPal, but I do not think it would pay up.
Given this might be a one time shot at market dominance, or at least leadership many less obvious banks might pop up to surprise everyone. Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) is a new colossus in wealth management but it is also a huge player in the movement of money internationally and might prove a good fit in that regard. It is also much more focused than the aforementioned banks.
Alas, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) as the first big bank to aggregate financial services companies into a one stop shop would love to add PayPal to the list. However, when it added highly leveraged derivatives to its portfolio it bit off more than it could chew so it is no longer a player, just trying to keep its nose above water.
Perhaps one of Citigroup's largest shareholders might bid on PayPal. The Sovereign Wealth Fund of Dubai probably could not be out bid for it and since PayPal is not a bank I do not think there would be government restrictions on the deal.
Here's the dark horse opportunity, Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) recently reconstituted as a bank to save its butt may be looking for new opportunities and find PayPal very tempting. Goldman has often been in on big deals but now it may want to be the big deal! It is too soon for Goldman to have purged itself of the traders' mentality. It remains among the top merger and acquisition companies in the world.
Of course, PayPal would have three major suitors that would keep it in the hands of an Internet force. Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) is a huge PayPal user; Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is looking for the next big thing; and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has piles of money and no new ideas might snap it up.
If PayPal were auctioned it might be valued higher than Ebay is in it's entirety at the current low market capitalization. However, for this to happen eBay would have to sell itself. A merger is not out of the question. If this wild idea ever gained credence my money would be on Mr. Softie.
If you are interested in the first two stories click on the following links:
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of EBAY, JPM and WFC.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-13-2008 @ 12:18PM
John Huckleberry said...
Ebay would be a fool to get rid of Pay Pal. Crazy ideal at that. The sheer amount of money it makes off of Pay Pal and Internet market coverage makes Ebay a power house. They cut loose Pay Pal they cut their throat. Bad idea.
11-13-2008 @ 11:32AM
RicRoe said...
It would be great to see PayPal auctioned off to the highest bidder.
Of late, PayPal has been nothing but a series of alleged ' glitches' which delays the payment flow from buyer to seller while the company profits from the revenue held.
PayPal is unregulated, so all they need do is update their user agreement, and they can make any policy they see fit which benefits them and then force it down customers throats. Takeover by a major bank would serve to bring PayPal under Federal regulation thus preventing current customer abuse.
Members that leave balances in their PayPal accounts do not have their accounts protected individually under FDIC should the ineptness in eBay's boardroom cause the company to fail. Takeover of PayPal by a bank would better protect member account balances.
SAhort of being sold to the highest bidder, it is time for the Federal Government to investigate PayPal's business practices.
Delay of payments caused by 'glitches' are inexcuseable. PayPal's payment hold policy is excessive and abusive of their customers. The forcing of PayPal as the only acceptable form of payment to the exclusion of Checks and Money Orders should be investigated as well.
PayPal does a few things well, and outside of eBay they have a decent reputation. But once you are forced to use PayPal inside or in conjunction with eBay, suddenly the system fails to function properly.
11-13-2008 @ 11:40AM
htRanger said...
The FIRST thing ebay needs to divest itself of is it's CEO, John Donahoe.
Search the internet for:
"Ebay Stockholders and Sellers Calling For Immediate Termination of John Donohoe CEO"
at petitiononline, to see what is REALLY happening at ebay and to it's users & shareholders!
Read up on the facts from ebay's own employees at glassdoor dot com
Learn about the abuses ebay has inflicted upon it's own users on ebay's discussions pages, such as "Seller Central"!
Search "My Blog Utopia!: Looking for more Dolphin Stories!" to report your own ebay experiences.
Donahoe's & Whitman's "Disruptive Innovation" plot against ebay, it's users and it's shareholders has destroyed the site and it's stocks.
Read more about Whitman at firemeg dot com.
11-13-2008 @ 12:19PM
jeff said...
Is a 12 year-old writing these articles? How short sighted is this person? Let's sell every division of the company then we'll have a big pile of cash and no growth opportunity!!!!! ????
Why on earth would ebay sell the jewel in its crown when it could spin it off and create huge value in an IPO and still own the company. Everybody would want in. The internet is really only 10 yrs old. Where will paypal be 50 years from now?
11-14-2008 @ 2:02AM
Jessy Scholl said...
PayPal is a cash cow for ebay. If eBay gets rid of PayPal, everyone should get ready to pay through the nose, and I can expect the top seller to be Google which will only shut it down. Fact, these posts are a total farce, and the only way that PayPal will be forced from eBay's hands is if eBay is in Chapter 7, which could happen if the current leadership continues driving its main customers, the sellers, away from the site.
11-14-2008 @ 11:32AM
Bill said...
"PayPal is a cash cow for ebay." It's actually the other way around - PayPal is growing because eBay routes virtually all of it transactions to them. Today, PayPal gets all those transactions for 'free', meaning that eBay doesn't charge them since they're both part of eBay, Inc.
Once PP is divested from eBay, you can be sure that eBay will want a significant chunk of the 2.9% fee that PP charges per transaction. Every big PP Merchant does this same thing, as does every big Google Checkout merchant. They'd be stupid not to - PP needs their business.
So since almost all (90%+) of PP's profitability today comes from eBay, PP is going nowhere...
11-14-2008 @ 1:42PM
Sheldon L said...
Bill,
PayPal gets more money from others now according to PayPal itself and this is growing faster than eBay portion.
"PayPal President Scott Thompson said here at the RBC Capital Markets conference Wednesday that by year's end, his company will derive more total payment volumes from its Merchant Services than from eBay buyers and sellers. Merchant Services is the name for the payment software PayPal provides to third-party sites like Starbucks, Delta Airlines, and American Outfitters.(In the last quarter, eBay buyers and sellers---long the bread and butter of PayPal's business--racked up about 51 percent of the payment volumes.)"
This was from last April so even more is off eBay site.
11-14-2008 @ 8:48PM
Bill said...
Sheldon -
You're correct, but that's TPV (total payment volume). PP's profitable transactions are almost entirely from the eBay site, where close to 50% of transactions are funded through a bank account.
Almost all of their Merchant transactions are credit card funded. Once PayPal gets done paying the interchange fees, there's almost no profit for them.
This is a known "challenge" within PP, btw. I was, ahem, close to it...
11-19-2008 @ 11:05AM
PayisnotmyPAL said...
Simply stated: Pay Pal is no friend of mine. They are thieves with a license to steal, lie and manipulate anyone they feel like. I hope and pray I live to see the day when both eBay and Pay Pal cease to exist.
12-03-2008 @ 11:04PM
Pacorvettelover said...
A Canadian court has ruled that tax officials there can collect information on individuals that is stored outside the country, a decision some lawyers say could have implications for companies that do business in Canada but keep records in the United States and elsewhere.
In eBay Canada v. Minister of National Revenue, 2008 FCA 348, a Canadian federal appeal court in Ottawa required eBay Canada to produce confidential information that was not physically kept or stored in Canada, but on computer servers in the United States. The court said that regardless of the physical location, the information was easily accessible in Canada because it could be quickly brought up on computer screens there.
Alexandra Brown, a partner in Toronto's Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt, said the ruling is consistent with recent decisions dealing with the powers of Canada's tax collection agency to obtain documents.
"While I think the decision is quite important within the tax context, I think it may have implications for other areas of law as well," Brown said, such as copyright and intellectual property laws.
The information in the case involves those who reach a certain amount of sales on eBay, the world's largest online marketplace. There are an estimated 10,000 so-called "PowerSellers" in Canada, according to court documents.
Last year, a Canadian court allowed the minister of National Revenue -- the official responsible for tax law and collection in Canada -- to access sellers' contact, sales and other information for tax audit purposes. EBay appealed, arguing that the information was kept outside of Canada. But in the recent ruling, the Federal Court of Appeal dismissed eBay's appeal.
The decision shows that the court looked at the reality of business activities in today's electronic age, rather than focusing on physical location, said Jill Jarvis-Tonus, a partner at Toronto's Bereskin & Parr, an intellectual property law firm.
"It certainly makes clear that you can't structure a business in a way that you can disconnect some of the subsidiaries, and by putting servers outside the country you can't isolate information that affects Canadian business activities," she said. "That may impact businesses."
Companies can no longer count on physical location as the only factor considered when applying laws regarding information access, Jarvis-Tonus said.
"You're going to have to look at where business activity is occurring in cyberspace," she said. "There are a lot of complicated geographical and jurisdictional situations arising from the fact that so much is being done online."
An assistant to Matthew J. Latella, a partner in the Toronto office of Baker & McKenzie who represents eBay, said Latella did not have his client's permission to comment on the case.
EBay has until Jan. 6 to file an application seeking an appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada.