My husband lost his phone months ago, and then left the charger for my Blackberry in an Oklahoma City hotel six weeks ago, and as we don't drive, the car charger isn't much use. Other than a few scattered charges while in my sister's or a friend's car, we've been without a cell phone entirely.Surprisingly, we've barely missed it. With his occasional work in the Army Reserves, and my freelance writing that isn't exactly the stuff of emergency phone calls, no one is asking us for instant availability. We're wondering if we really need our cell phones any more, and I'm hoping to let our contracts expire next fall. We may not be alone.
Nokia today forecast global industry mobile phone sales to be 1.5% less than previously expected. Apple may be reducing its production of iPhones. You have to wonder, in an economy in which free and easy credit is fast disappearing (and, along with it, free and easy disposable "income" to spend on toys) -- and one in which, shortly, consumers may start paying closer attention to monthly bills before they enter blindly into two-year contracts worth thousands for a shiny new toy -- could the cell phone as we know it be over?
Both of my babysitters, my in-laws who barely make a living wage working in restaurants, and most of the unemployed people I know have fancy phones with cameras, bells and whistles. I hardly believe this pace of consumerism is sustainable. There can't possible be untrammeled growth in an industry that forecasts to put new phones in one-fifth of the world's population next year. Seriously?
I predict that Peak Cell Phone has been reached, and in the next five years we'll see a serious decline in new phone sales as consumers realize that there are things more important in life than being able to text your friends. And with a reduction in credit, those things are harder and harder to afford. The cell phone, as we know it, may just be on its way out.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-14-2008 @ 6:34PM
robert said...
I have a TracFone and use it for emergency phone calls mostly. I did have to use my phone for work only to make things easier for me. It is nice to have while traveling it you need help or for an emergency. Don't need or can afford a contract cell phone.
robert in wv
11-14-2008 @ 7:38PM
Ashram said...
The cell phone on its way out? I don't think so and, honestly, such an assertion is a shallow, knee-jerk conclusion.
What is in decline are buying new cell phones, particularly those that have features well beyond the basic ability to call others.
In other words, sales are declining not because people are abandoning cell phones but, like how other retail markets are, people are cutting discretionary spending instead of buying the next greatest gadget to keep up with the Joneses.
It's more likely that people with a cell phone are just merely keeping their old phones a bit longer and that decision is reflected in new phone sales as a decline.
A decline in sales is not necessarily indicative of a decline in cellular accounts and, definitely, there are people that still have important and extensive uses for this kind of communication (and while that's mentioned, just because YOU, Sarah Gilbert, may not have much use of a cell phone, that does not mean that other people don't as well).
In conclusion: the state of the economy, not some newfound wisdom in human existence, is the reason for the decline in sales.
11-14-2008 @ 8:20PM
ed said...
get real..very few will ever give up the cell phone!!.suppliers constantly giving deals on rates..this day and age..you really think the cell is gonna go...dont buy that one.
11-14-2008 @ 8:53PM
pema said...
When phones were only landlines, I turned them off and used answering services. I can't imagine anyone I want to be in constant contact with.I speak to my boss rarely, my co-workers only at work and others always get my answering service...I'll call yo back. If someone has died, I am not a medical examiner or mortician. If someone is sick, I am not a Doctor, so I can't help. If someone is hurt, call 911...not me. If the information is sorrowful and emotional...please let me do my days work and when I come home tell me about it, don't f--k up my day with info that I cannot do anything with.
11-14-2008 @ 9:02PM
RH said...
Wow. Either you know absolutely nothing about the mobile industry or you were writing this to get responses like this. The mobile industry is stronger than it's ever been (a simple google search will provide hundreds of sources).
Just because you don't use your cell phone, and because we're in a economic crisis doesn't mean a multi-billion dollar industry is going anywhere anytime soon.
11-15-2008 @ 10:21AM
JCH said...
In terms of overall demand, the economy could be trouble for cellphones, but cellphones are fantastic.
Next month we are severing our land line. It's like paying a monthly fee to feed a dinosaur.
11-17-2008 @ 10:08AM
AC said...
All hail Sarah Gilbert! The entire planet hangs on your every word and will do thy bidding.
I just hope you and your husband don't become lactose intolerant or the world's dairy industry is DOOMED AS WELL...