AOL Money & Finance

Earnings preview: Will Lowe's go lower after it reports?

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Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), a chain that sells products related to home improvement for do-it-yourselfers and competes with Home Depot (NYSE: HD), is set to report earnings for the third quarter on Monday, November 17. The expectation is for $0.28 per share. If management hits that number, which its shareholders are praying it does at the very least, then that would represent a 35% drop in per-share income. At this point, investors are becoming numb to things like 35% drops in per-share income, aren't they? Ah, the wonders of a bear market.

Lowe's beat in the previous two quarters according to AOL Finance, but all bets are currently off as far as I'm concerned. Retail is awful, consumer confidence just felt the poke of the Grim Reaper's index finger and is dying a slow death, and I'd have to assume that people haven't done much to improve their homes during the past quarter. With all the headlines talking about job losses and the like, putting up new cabinets in the kitchen is probably far down on the consumer's list of priorities. The actual numbers for the quarter won't matter so much. Even if Lowe's beats by a penny, it's the outlook Wall Street will be dissecting. And that won't be good, will it? Everyone's outlook is cautious at the very best. At the very least, management will be doing what it can in terms of preserving the margins. I'm sure there will be talk about cost-cutting and efficiencies during the conference call. Let me tell you, management is going to need a lot of efficiency initiatives going forward in this cataclysmic climate. And I hope they have their cash-flow statement working at an optimum level.

Am I being too pessimistic? Maybe, although it's difficult to believe that pessimism isn't completely justified at this point. Back in May, I did see some good in Lowe's. Although I still believe that Lowe's is a decent long-term idea, obviously things have gotten much, much worse since May. Unbelievably worse. So, staying on the sidelines ahead of the earnings should be a wise move, no matter what the market is doing that day. And in the short-term, I think Lowe's stock may be heading lower, even if it reports an excellent quarter. I'm still bearish on the economy and the markets, so even though Lowe's is roughly a few bucks off its 52-week low, I'd have to say that I honestly believe it will break that low. I'll let you make the final decision as to where the stock is heading...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 09:05 AM

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