A former senior manager at CB Richard Ellis Group (NYSE: CBG) in Southern California, now a partner at a private real estate company where I am an investor said to me this week that the stock market was just "white collar gambling".
This is a relatively common thought from Main Street and when my colleague Ron, made the comment it was hard to argue that it is not.
It certainly looks like gambling when you consider how momentum day traders place their bets, or options traders, or commodities traders -- and the past few years -- CEO's of major corporations.
I certainly was playing this theme up when I posted The great leadership disconnect: I bet the farm and you lose in September.
Earlier in the week Ron had brought up the fact that CBG stock had dropped from over $40 per share to under $4 and it seemed like it was bound to get back sometime in the foreseeable future for a huge gain. The following is the three year chart.
Ron is a smart real estate guy but he is not a stock market aficionado. He believed the risk / reward opportunity seemed like a no brain-er (not that he was going to invest). The first problem is that idea of the foreseeable future. I think the market is not foreseeing much lately. Most things seem quite cloudy indeed.
Actually I could not help but ponder the matter because, coincidentally, I was at a business breakfast the following morning where the speaker was a manager with responsibility for CBG's Asian portfolio investments. When Ron brought up the subject originally I responded that I did not follow the stock, but that it did not have to return to it's previous glory to achieve a great return on investment. Suppose it took two years to go from $4 per share to $6 or $7. Most anyone would be delighted with a 25%+ annualized return.
As it turned out, I saw my associate later that day and he pointed out that CBG had jumped 40% from the day before. WOW, some of the day gamblers, I mean traders, must have made a killing. Of course that is only if they were on the right side of the deal, and sold in time.
CBG closed Friday at $4.84, down 10% and has been volatile lately as the chart and the stocks recent moves indicate. It has a beta of just under 2 which means that it moves at twice the rate of the broader market.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own any shares of CBG. I do not do any day trading.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-16-2008 @ 10:59PM
Don said...
Jim Cramer also comments on the gambling aspect of the market. For some reason we're not supposed to talk about that nature of investing.
I actually think gambling is good training for the market. I've found poker to be helpful anyway. To play passable poker you eventually have to learn lessons like: Money you have already invested in a pot should not make you more inclined to stay in the hand. You should choose to stay based on the current risk/reward ratio; you have to weigh probability of winning against the cost of the bets.
You could say something similar about holding a bad stock.
A friend asked me recently if after the year of losses I was afraid to invest in the market. I said that a year ago was a time to be afraid and no one was. The decline doesn't make me especially more afraid now; you have to look forward. It would be like fearing another hand when you've had a couple of bad draws, or because you realize you made a mistake in the last hand.
Poker and investing, in terms of thinking and required temperament, don't seem that far apart to me.
11-16-2008 @ 11:38PM
Mr. noitall said...
You are taking on risk when you make any kind of investment. So, it could be called gambling. But we have no choice, gambling is a part of life. I think alot of people got hurt badly because they believed in the "buy & hold" myth. I told you that that "buy & hold" idea was dangerous.
I think right now money could be made if you are willing to "gamble" on some individual stocks, and I do like the yields I see corporate bond funds.
11-16-2008 @ 11:55PM
Sheldon L said...
I do play poker and I do think it is a good time to make a wager in the market now as well...and I have been. But I invest and do not day trade.
11-17-2008 @ 1:40AM
BHarrison said...
While there is always some risks to investing in the market, the average investor are NOT looking to "play high stakes poker" with their investments. They are looking to invest in reasonably stable stocks with reasonable growth and profitability.
Under the current volitile market conditions there is an unacceptable risks of substantially losing one's investment principle . . . there is no stability for even the blue chip stocks, and questionable survivable of major corporations. Under this environment, with the old CEOs still running the corporations, and the promised "FULL DISCLOSURE" not having been provided, there is inadequate "faith and confidence" in the market to motivate people to invest in the market.