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Intel introduces new chip into jaws of tech downturn

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When Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) was developing its new and powerful i7 chip, the economy was peachy. Today, it finally launched the microprocessor chip, but into a completely different economic environment, which may mean the payout from the chip will take years.

Intel does not seem to be concerned by the timing, but perhaps it should be. According to The Wall Street Journal, "You recover from a recession with tomorrow's products, not today's," said Sean Maloney, Intel's executive vice president and chief sales and marketing officer.

Maloney's assessment may be flawed. After years of being behind Intel in product development, AMD (NYSE: AMD) seems to be finally catching up as it launches new chips of its own. If i7 sales are undercut by the tech recession, when the industry recovers, Intel will be faced with tough competition while it rebuilds its sales and earnings. In a strong economy it could build a market share lead during a period when the entire market is expanding. In a downturn, facing strong competition, its revenue could be significantly undermined

Intel also has to face a long payout cycle for the i7, which could hurt earnings. After many quarters of R&D costs, the world's largest chip company probably assumed it could recoup its investment in the i7 in a fairly short period of time. Now, that short period has become unpredictably long.

Intel's casual attitude about the i7 being an important product during a recovery is a smoke screen to hide the fact that its ROI plans have almost certainly been damaged.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 09:53 AM

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