It looks like the automobile industry is being led like a turkey to the slaughter as we approach Thanksgiving. While companies like General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) have been working overtime to produce a fleet of statistics to bolster their case for a Washington bailout, it's clear that President Bush and the Republicans are eager to wield a sharpened ax on its ever-more vulnerable neck.
The pre-bailout buildup follows the same narrative structure as the one for the Iraq war and the $810 billion bank bailout bill. With the Iraq War, the specter of a mushroom cloud was dropped on our unsuspecting heads. With Paulson's plan for a reverse auction to buy toxic waste, it was the threat of heavenly retribution. And now, the auto industry is promising 2.5 million lost jobs and $200 billion in government costs -- up from $125 billion last week -- if Washington does not bail it out.
The political forces lining up against the automobile industry appear more powerful than those who want to bail it out. While congressional Democrats want to divert $25 billion from Paulson's plan to bail out the auto industry, Bush and the Republicans oppose the idea. And until January, they appear to have the upper hand.
Meanwhile, President-elect Obama likes the idea of getting the industry's stakeholders to agree on what a viable auto industry would look like before giving it government money. His idea makes sense to me because, as I posted yesterday, it was one of the reasons that the 1979 Chrysler bailout worked.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in GM securities.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
11-17-2008 @ 6:02PM
D A HICK said...
JOB NUMBER ONE: RICK WAGONER AND ALL HIS BOARD CRONIES AND EXECUTIVES UNDER HIM MUST GO ASAP. THE UAW PERSIDENT AND HIS CRONIES MUST GO. NOW THEY ARE CRYING WOLF. I AND MOST OF AMERICAN SAYS SCREW EM.
11-17-2008 @ 6:06PM
Iridium said...
Look what are we supposed to do. Bailouts don't work and we can't just keep giving out money that doesn't really exist.
GM is too big and it needs to be broken up and sold off to private investors. Each would get tax breaks for starting up new auto companies. Let the companies even keep the names. Bring back car brands that actually make different cars.
We are in this mess becuase competition has died. There is so much collusion in the world market that individuals and small business has lost all power.
Look at the world auto market for christ's sake. It's practicaly one company already. Toyota sharing parts with GM which owns part of Suzuki with GM Vauxhaul sharing parts with Nissan. Ford tied up with Mazda. Makers of pint size transport mixed with supercars. Chrysler versions of Mitsubishis mixed with cars built on old Mercedes platforms.
It's damned corporate socialism and that is why it isn't working. The enemies of the free market have created a "too big to fail" corporate world where it is impossible for the individual to build a better business. The irony is that the "too big to fail" business didn't understand that growing so large would detroy the ability of the individual to sustain the beast. There simply is not enough food to go around so everything is going to die rather than just the beast that should have been killed a long time ago by those that needed the food for themselves. Instead we made voluntary offerings to our government that claimed it was our protector.
11-17-2008 @ 6:16PM
Rob said...
With the Average UAW worker at $75.00 an hour, and the average Toyota worker at $48.00 an hour. What did you think would happen? It's time to let these companies either sink or swim, nobodys going to bail out my small business, I get no security blanket. I say let them go under, break up these gigantic monoliths and let the chips fall where they may. That is what a free market economy is all about. Chapter 11 protections could kick in and they'd be able to dig themselves out. I can't afford a new car from ANY automaker, I'm for damn sure not going to let my Representative and Senators give them money without a fight.
11-17-2008 @ 6:18PM
kenneth wilkerson said...
The auto companies should declare bankruptcy, reorganize and get away from the union crooks. The second thing would be to get better management people. The third thing would be to do more research and produce higher quality automobiles. I hate to say it, but the Japanese cars are much better than the American made cars.
11-17-2008 @ 6:55PM
rob said...
First of all Mr Cohen doesn't have a clue about the automobile Industry. He obviously is one of those Liberal University types who have taken over over educational institutions who teach what they want you to know rather than teaaching our young people how to learn and be resourcesful and make informed descisions based on factual information not some theory that most often fdon't fly in the real world.
If you look at what happens if the Big 3 lays all the union employees off file bankruptsy, most of them will receive under the current contrct up to 58 weeks compensation at 95% of their pay. Notice I didn't say the Automobive Industry I said the "Big 3 This is becasue Honda just built a new plant and is doing well and hiring and Toyota is doing the same thing despite having to tighten there corporate belts to adjust to this economic times. Japan didn't bail them out becasue they didn't need bailing out. The demise of the Big 3 starte when Roger Smith fired all the engineers in favor of contractors. The day they got notice they did not even cleanout their desk becasue they thought they would be back on Monday but as Contractors. Smith put a quick STOP to that and the Accountant then began running the company. The many of the real car guys left. Iacocca got fired from Ford and went to Chryler where shortly there after he stole Bob Lutz from Ford Truck. Together along with Gerald Miller and one other guy whose nanme escaped me restructured Chrysler from the inside out before Iacocca went to OCXngress for there bailout. They had the ability, they hand the plan and THE ENTIRE AMOUNT WAS REPAID WITH INTEREST 1 YEAR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. GM amf Ford have no plan because it is not the car company's that will be bailed out, it the Unions whose mission is all about control and power unfortunately not with the members as anything but a financial source. Any bailout is only delaying the inevitable. Until they start designing and building cars that people can be proud to drive, are affordable, that are energy conscicious nbody will buy these cars. All you have to do is go to a manufacturing, engineering or design facility of any Big 3 plant and a very high percentage to cars in their lots are of foreign names. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see people buy what their proud of and that reliable.
The fleet of stastics are just that numbers, what if's maybe's. We can't afford to make another dumb move. I would purpose every person impacted by the bankrupsy from suppliers to company workers themselves be granted 12 months of unemployment benifits and a reduction in there health benifits to Catostrpathic policy's accept for children. I like to play with numbers. Quanatative and Qualatative Analysis suggests this would be a significantly less invasive way to accomplish the Reorganization goals in the Bankruptsy Code. In the event there is a bailout it MUST BE TIED TO STRICT PERFORMANCE AND GOALS which gewnerate the release of funds. Personally I believe GM especially can do a lot better on the fuel economy issue and forced to provide Average MPG on a per model basis rather than the fleet. The cut your Brands down to no more than 10 If you're really interested in understanbd what it takes to build and operate a profitable corporation the size of GM get the Book "JAPAN 2015" writtne in the early 19080's a book telling where the Japanese automobile industry would be at that time. On it's 25 anniversery a reviewof this book found that it content was off by less that 3%. I have 3 cars a 67 Hemi Cuda (concept car) and my high school car a 65 Chevy Impla SS Convertible w/ 409HP and 411 rear end. oh yes and my 5 year old Honda Accord with 186.000 miles on it.
11-17-2008 @ 7:34PM
Dennis Chabot said...
We can't keep bailing everybvody out. The CEO's and GOP leadership have lined there pockets for eight years. I guess the only thing to let go on is the companies go bankrupt. Sad for the everyday working man, Maybe they could all be laid off and go live at the CEO's house and let him feed them after all he and George Busj\h's boys stole this past eight years he ought to be able to feed them for eight years.
11-17-2008 @ 8:27PM
d a hick said...
you are such a simple minded idiot. the demise of the american automobile companies has been going on for 30+ years thru dems and reps and several presidents. between their management and the unions they have priced themselves out of the market. they have no one to blame but themselves. quit blaming bush for every damn thing. learn the facts jack.
11-17-2008 @ 8:48PM
Daren said...
whats with the biased viewpoints on here lately. I come here for stock news. Keep it clean, and the BS out of the articles.
11-17-2008 @ 9:15PM
meggaguy said...
Dennis Chabot said...
We can't keep bailing everybvody out. The CEO's and GOP leadership have lined there pockets for eight years. I guess the only thing to let go on is the companies go bankrupt. Sad for the everyday working man, Maybe they could all be laid off and go live at the CEO's house and let him feed them after all he and George Busj\h's boys stole this past eight years he ought to be able to feed them for eight years................................
Well Dennis....Here you go again blaming
the Republicans.....The UAW donated 80
million to Obama and the Democrats,not
one penny to the Republicans....It's the
Democrats that are corrupt and in bed with the unions....Cut the crap already
11-17-2008 @ 9:31PM
Kent said...
I find it odd that only management is taking the issue to Washington. I would think that for once both management and labor should be working together in trying to get the bail-out loan passed through Congress. If labor thinks they'll be getting a free ride, they couldn't be more mistaken. Why leave their fate in the hands of management when both sides have an equal stake in their survival.
11-17-2008 @ 10:20PM
Mike Sanders said...
The "Big-three," or the " -three," as I like to call them are not "promising" Carmageddon, they are threatening it... Nope, extortion is not an option. You are out-numbered and the American people, Democrats included are sick and tired of being lied to, bullied and footing the bill. It's over... I support Obama. We must find out what's going to change, before we sheel out $25 billion... No change? No dollars!
11-17-2008 @ 10:24PM
JDavis109 said...
Stop blaming the auto workers for the Corporate leaderships' bad business decisions. For too long, the US auto industry has focused on style and pushed big, inefficient cars with high profit margins, while Toyota saw the future and invested in efficient smaller cars and hybrids. That's why GM can't compete with Toyota. There was no excuse for Detroit to be so far behind the eight ball on what consumers want and really need.
11-17-2008 @ 10:46PM
Jerry said...
These a$$hole republicans just bailed out their Ivy League Buddies with one side of their mouth while says no to those that aren't their college buddies. They say less taxes while running up a debt that can not be paid without higher taxes. And it seems that the 51 percent STUPID Americans believe everything these idiots say. GO WATCH SOME PRO (FAKE) WRESTLING YOU DUMB A$$'S.
11-17-2008 @ 10:55PM
a uaw criminal said...
GREEDY BLOOD SUCKING WHINERS WHO MAKE SH-TY CARS AN TRUCKS. PLEASE GO OUT OF BUSINESS!
11-18-2008 @ 1:40AM
John said...
I was watching college football on Saturday and all I saw was Hummer and Ford f150 commercials. The U.S. auto companies deserve to crumble. They have had time and tons of money but did nothing. The unions sit at the decision table and the high cost of business is passed on to us by cheap crap autos. The Democrats are only giving a gift to the Unions for getting Obama elected. Screw unions and the US auto market. My Toyota truck rocks.
11-19-2008 @ 3:17AM
dewayne said...
Giving AIG nearly 150 billion alone was foolish, I personally want to know if they put AIG under the the same microscope of accountability as the Big Three. After the 40 million dollar vacation debacle, the government decides to give AIG 40 billion more dollars 'WTF'.
I do feel that the Big Three has problems but they seem to be working on them from their last contract with Union, and maybe its not enough. I feel it is time to take a look also at the union workplace model and to remove it, if its causing harm to the industry. Also the fact that we have not fix health care in this country has hurt the bottom line of every corporation, small business, and government agency causing negative bottom lines across the board.
I don't understand the beef with giving a paltry 25 billion dollar loan to the Big Three since the Feds have given the Banks 810 billion on top of the AIG deal of 150 billion. We need to help our auto industry, because nearly every job on this planet will be affected by its loss. Nearly every car company making cars in the U.S. have some of their parts made by U.S. suppliers. These suppliers have major accounts with GM, Ford and Chrysler and cannot survive without them. If they fail the ripple effect would be failures at Visteon, Delphi, Johnson Controls, American Axle, Flex-n-Gate and the list goes on. Dealerships and their hundreds of thousands of employees would be toast. Transportation companies will loose major revenue, and will be force into massive layoffs. Fedex, UPS and USPS would have raise rates to deal with the lost revenue. Train Corporations also have a great amount of their revenue from parts and car shipments. Technology firms will lose income and stock values such as IBM, and Microsoft, and Intel, so if you've diversified your portfolios in these companies it may be time to sell. The bank bailout will be moot because banks finance just about every step in a car after it has been built. And without that revenue stream the leverage these banks count against the books will not balance. People aren't spending money and just about every retailer is in the red right now. Imagine that without the several million people working in a supporting role of the Big Three. With the massive amount of job losses that would occur, this era easily would eclipse the great depression.
11-18-2008 @ 8:12AM
James said...
The 1979 Chrysler Bailout worked... really?
hmmm seems to me that Chrysler is one of the "Big 3" responsible for all the contracts and union shenanigans that have put them there once again.
Oh and if we look, how many Chrysler Products do we see from the 80's still on the road.
Throwing money at a problem does not work, I say get rid of the unions and the contracts, restructure, start over.
11-18-2008 @ 8:45AM
Meggaguy said...
Hey Look.....American Motors tanked and
so have many other car companies......
Personally anyone old enough to remember the Packards and Studebakers
would love to get their hands on one of those cars again.
The industry will always adjust to what
the consumer wants to spend their money
on.
Right now we need very fuel efficient cars for many reasons.Start with National Security for one.We are sending 700
billion a year to the Middle East for oil and that money alone would create massive amounts of jobs in our country.
You Dumbocrats wanted change and already Pelosi is talking about stopping the drilling here again and get ready for
$4.50 a gallon gas again with no answer
to the energy crisis.
I say do what Boone Pickins said as a start and convert half of our current cars to natural gas as we develop new technologies to dump the Middle East from controlling our economy.
Obamas' change has been to appoint all the old Clinton Administration Cronies to
his cabinet and stop domestic production
of oil. Keep feeding the Terrorists you idiot Democrats. GM and the UAW want
you to buy their Gas Guzzlers,the terrorists are dancing in the streets thanks to you idiots in the auto industry.
I don't miss Eastern Airlines or Pan Am for that matter and I sure won't miss the big three corrupt automakers.
It will be less than four years of an Obama Administration with the Clintons controlling him with their people in power again before we are officially a 3rd world
nation. You will be losing many of your rights very shortly after Obama is in office.The fairness doctrine will silence the Republicans,Obamas' 500,000 civilian
militia will use intimidation to control anyone with an opposing view.The unions
will bankrupt ALL US CITIES as they have started to do already with their ridicious
salary and pensions that the mojority of cities can't afford and some right now have to file for bankruptsy. The unions want their members to be intimidated by their card check open voter policy where
you can no longer vote in private.
You CHANGE is coming and YOU'LL BE SORRY!!!!!!!!!!
11-18-2008 @ 8:36AM
Donna said...
The whole industry might just take a 2 months off without pay. Dealerships close,parts stores and all subsidiaries having to do with the industry. Take off Thanksgiving and Christmas and New Years. Enjoy the family and call it vacation, while the so called experts like the politicians tell them how they should run their company. Management and unions together need more time with their families and to get in touch with their 'inner self.' It will be an even sadder day for the retailers during the holidays, but what the heck, if the politicians don't think taxpayers are worth it then retailers should understand.
Close Detroit down folks ~ it's time to take a stand for us.
11-18-2008 @ 8:48AM
Meggaguy said...
Hey Look.....American Motors tanked and
so have many other car companies......
Personally anyone old enough to remember the Packards and Studebakers
would love to get their hands on one of those cars again.
The industry will always adjust to what
the consumer wants to spend their money
on.
Right now we need very fuel efficient cars for many reasons.Start with National Security for one.We are sending 700
billion a year to the Middle East for oil and that money alone would create massive amounts of jobs in our country.
You Dumbocrats wanted change and already Pelosi is talking about stopping the drilling here again and get ready for
$4.50 a gallon gas again with no answer
to the energy crisis.
I say do what Boone Pickins said as a start and convert half of our current cars to natural gas as we develop new technologies to dump the Middle East from controlling our economy.We have massive amounts of natural gas right here in the USA.
Obamas' change has been to appoint all the old Clinton Administration Cronies to
his cabinet and stop domestic production
of oil. Keep feeding the Terrorists you idiot Democrats. GM and the UAW want
you to buy their Gas Guzzlers,and the terrorists are dancing in the streets thanks to you idiots in the auto industry.
I don't miss Eastern Airlines or Pan Am for that matter and I sure won't miss the big three corrupt automakers.
It will be less than four years of an Obama Administration with the Clintons controlling him with their people in power again before we are officially a 3rd world
nation. You will be losing many of your rights very shortly after Obama is in office.The fairness doctrine will silence the Republicans,Obamas' 500,000 civilian
militia will use intimidation to control anyone with an opposing view.The unions
will bankrupt ALL US CITIES as they have started to do already with their ridicious
salary and pensions that the majority of cities can't afford and some right now have to file for bankruptsy.This has caused local property taxes to skyrocket
driving homeowners into foreclosure.
The unions want their members to be intimidated by their card check open voter policy where they can no longer vote in private.
Your CHANGE is coming and YOU'LL BE SORRY!!!!!!!!!!