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Target's Q3 report: Pretty dismal

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Target (NYSE: TGT), arch competitor of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD), and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), reported earnings for the third quarter on Monday. According to my earnings preview, the call was for $0.49 per share. On that basis, Target met the expectations of analysts. But I've read some other headlines that said that estimates were beat. Apparently some of us are working off different data. No matter; it was a dismal quarter no matter how you slice it.

According to the press release, net sales advanced a mere 1.7%. Worse, same-store sales dropped over 3%. That's the important figure to consider when talking about retail. Target did okay in terms of cash from operations, but that doesn't mean that things will be great going forward. Not at all. In fact, although management produced a gain in operational cash flow, all of it -- and more -- was taken up by capital expenditures. This issue of cash is actually the big angle of the story for me. Management states in the release that it has stopped share-buyback activity and that it intends to be conservative concerning capital spending. It literally mentioned that its business is not necessarily attractive to invest in at the moment.

If that's the case, should you buy the stock now? I'd say you better think long and hard before buying Target at its current price level. As I write this, the stock is down about 2.5%. It isn't at the 52-week low, but I don't see how it won't go back there, and beyond, before the year is out. Is Target most likely a good long-term play? I'd say the company is. But it's difficult to look at this report and say that now is the time to buy, even for long-term thinkers. Sales are down, the company's credit-card business isn't scoring any points, and the outlook is not favorable. I guess I'm in a bearish mood when it comes to the bullseye retailer...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 12:42 PM

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