This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) lowered its guidance on what sounds like even weaker glass sales. This should not surprise anyone, and I have been negative on the glass side of the shop for nearly a year. However, GLW pointed out in its release that it had a strong cash position with very little debt due for the next four years.
Additionally, even though GLW is forecasting lower EPS, it's still in the black. During the last tech crash, it suffered huge losses. At some point we should see people start looking at "old school" valuation concepts like normalized EPS and Book Value. On these metrics, GLW is cheap at 65-100% higher levels. Give GLW a normalized EPS of roughly $1.25 and a seven multiple and you're getting the entire Corning BV operation for free, the IP portfolio for free and the net cash for free.
I was last stopped out of GLW at around $15. I want to see how the stock acts today, but I'm going to start rebuilding a position on this in hours or days. Longer term, glass sales should become a solid cash cow again, while new products take over producing higher margins and a resumption of sales growth. Also, at these levels I would not be surprised to hear some rumbling merger rumors, though I am doubtful about GLW being acquired. More likely, GLW might be looking at doing some asset purchases.
Some people don't like to use stops because you can get stopped out on a big downside reaction. While this is true, I still think the use of stops is extremely important for returns and capital preservation in any market. My last GLW trade was in the $17's. My stop was slightly under $15. So while I took a 15% hit or so on this trade, I'm now able to reload GLW if I so chose nearly 50% lower. If I invest roughly the same amount, I double my share count from before. And sometimes in distressed markets, increasing share count can be a huge tool for the investor as a portfolio recovery strategy.
The only issue with stops is you have to marry the right stop to the volatility of the stock and trading timeframe. If your timeframe is longer term and you're trying to use 5-7% stops in tech shares, you'll get taken out of nearly everything. Likewise if you're day trading using leverage and are using 15% stops, you'll not last long. So make sure your stops match your stocks and strategy.
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