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Will our tax dollars pay $20 billion in Wall Street bonuses?

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Thanks to what former Enron CEO, Jeff Skilling, called bad "optics", some top Wall Street executives announced that they're foregoing their normal seven figure bonuses. But I think I am being generous in estimating that those potentially symbolic gestures will only shave a few billion off the Wall Street bonus pool for 2008. We could still be paying $20 billion in bonuses this year.

How so? After buying $159 billion worth of preferred stock in 24 banks, I have not seen any evidence that the Treasury required the banks to lend it out. There is nothing stopping the banks from using the money for paying bonuses. And while the original estimate of 2008 bonuses was down 20% from 2007 -- to $26.6 billion -- I am thinking that eliminating executive bonuses could lead to at least a $6 billion lower figure -- particularly if this cut provides bank CEOs leverage to reduce the amount of bonuses paid to lower level people.

So far, top executives from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), Deutsche Bank, and Barclays have said they will skip their bonuses for 2008. Ironically, the ethically challenged UBS has the most interesting idea -- starting in 2009, it will be able to claw back bonuses in the years after their award with a third paid immediately, while the remainder will be put into a participant's account and can be reduced if there is a loss at the division or the whole bank. I started proposing an escrow account along these lines in October 2007.

I expect most other banks to follow suit. But I would be surprised if all bankers lost their bonuses this year. Moreover, these top executives might find other ways to get paid enormous amounts of money -- possibly through grants of stock to offset the lost cash payments.

I may be the only one, but I am not confident that using $20 billion worth of taxpayer money to pay bonuses to the people who created this financial catastrophe is really the best way to save the global economy.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 12, 2009: 03:04 PM

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