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Sirius (SIRI) faces bankruptcy and an investor wipe out

Sirius XM (NSADAQ: SIRI) faces a number of problems. Those caused the stock to drop to 20 cents yesterday, down from a 52-week high of $3.94.

Sirius is not only sitting on between $3 billion and $4 billion in debt. It has also never posted a net profit. There are still questions about whether its merger with XM Satellite will yield enough cost cuts to make the operation profitable.

But, none of those things are the final nail in the coffin. If one of The Big Three goes under, especially if it is GM (NYSE: GM), Sirius will lose one of its largest sources of new subscribers. Since some people who take the service drop it every month, which is normal attrition, those customers have to be replaced. For the company to grow, each month has to show net new additions which greatly outweigh cancellations.

Sirius cannot afford to lose its flow of customers from a major car maker. If it does, it debt service will overwhelm it, and finding new capital will be impossible. Who want to lend money to a company which is losing its most important sales pipeline?

If GM drops, Sirius will fall within a month.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 08:53 AM

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