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Tell-tale stat: 4 million continuing U.S. unemployment claims

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What's the most-riveting statistic in this week's jobless claims report? Continuing claims, which surpassed 4 million for the first time.

Continuing claims rose 109,000 in the week ended November 8. Economists pay close attention to continuing claims because it provides them with a comprehensive indicator of long-term job market conditions.

Continuing claims have risen more than 45% in the past year, which is not good news for job aspirants or for corporate revenue and earnings moving forward, so says economist Peter Dawson.

"The 4 million continuing claims total means those laid off are having a hard time finding suitable, comparable employment. There are very few jobs available, which is the major reason behind the rise in the unemployment rate," Dawson said. "Further, without falling continuing claims, it's really hard for corporate revenue and earnings to increase, and of course the stock market's low level reflects this."

Meanwhile, U.S. initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 542,000 for the week ended November 15, the U.S. Labor Department said. Claims for the previous week were revised to 515,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 505,000.


In addition, the 4-week moving average rose 15,750 to 506,500. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions than initial claims, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Dawson said U.S. job losses, which have totaled about 1.2 million since the U.S. economic downturn started, will have to be reversed, for sustainable U.S. GDP growth to resume.

"There is no sustained economic expansion, no real increase in household formation, without job growth, which is why private and public policy makers must do everything they can to increase employment," Dawson said. "Ultimately, it's the key to U.S. economic health."

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 12:55 AM

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