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Will Citi take a dirt nap?

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Citigroup (NYSE: C) recently revived advertising slogan is reassuring: "Citi never sleeps." The idea is that since it operates in 100 countries, there is always a Citi employee on the job. But even if you have 300,000 employees, a company can only survive if those people are doing the right things when they're on the job. If not, Citi might never sleep, but it could take a dirt nap.

Citi stock has lost half its value this week and, at $4.71, is down 92% from its September 2000 high of $57.50. Prince Alwaleed said it was dramatically undervalued -- and that was yesterday morning before it lost 26% of its value. I suggested yesterday that the Prince may have miscalculated. How so? If you think that value can be measured by comparing the stock price to potential earnings growth, then I think the Prince overestimated the earnings growth part . For instance, its global cards and consumer lending business makes up 67.3% of net revenues, and global cards shrank 40% in the third quarter.

Since the prince has so much of his diminishing wealth -- his investment fund was down 63% as of yesterday -- tied up in Citi stock, he may have decided that people's memory of his 1991 investment killing based on buying at split-adjusted $2.98 -- will draw in buyers. But things are different now. Citi has posted huge write-downs in four consecutive quarters of losses totaling $20 billion; nine of its investment funds have collapsed this year; it will lose money due to write-offs of consumer loans, commercial real estate, and mortgages; and it has trillions of exposure to derivatives and illiquid assets.

An 8% decline in the value of those Level 2 and Level 3 assets would wipe out its $98.6 billion in common equity. And Citi is heavily exposed to derivatives risk with $2.58 of risk exposure to every $1 of capital.

And Citi -- which is resisting calls to break up the company and sell its pieces -- seems to be suffering from the same gap between its optimistic perception of the future and the market's more pessimistic one. This is the same mindset that doomed Lehman Brothers.

Perhaps, the decision to stop displaying Citi's stock price within its Manhattan offices is a way to remove the daily jolt of fear into the hearts of its employees. All the better to lull them into a dirt nap. But there is some hope that Citi will announce a merger which could salvage investors' cash. That seems to be perking up its stock this morning. But the devil is in the details.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup stock.

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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 04:45 AM

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