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You can ring my Dell, ring my Dell

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Ding a ling, ling. Ah yes, it used to be a privilege to ring the bell at the New York Stock Exchange. The symbolic ring opened and closed trading on U.S. markets and was a highly desired perk of corporate America.

Today, it is more like a funeral dirge. If investors were not thoroughly depressed before this week, they sure are now. Bad news follows bad news. Confidence has vanished, and with it stock values have fallen.

But, is it as bad as it seems?

The only way to know is to focus on the data. Corporate earnings news and forecasts now carry substantial weight in the market as investors look for any clues regarding economic activity.

The market is priced for a deep recession. It is not priced for a complete disaster. The yin and the yang of the market will be focused on any signs of the latter. Earnings news will be the final arbiter.

On Thursday, Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) announced third-quarter earnings ending Oct. 31, that beat market expectations. The company stated that profits grew by 9% in the period to 37 cents per share. Analysts were expecting earnings of 31 cents per share.

The negative side of the release came in the form of revenues that missed expectations by $1 billion. That is a big miss and reflects a weakening sales environment that had only begun two months after the start of the quarter.

Exceeding estimates in earnings was a result of cost cutting and stock buybacks that reduced the number of shares outstanding during the period. The company is to be commended in managing its business in a slowing economy.

The question going forward is can they continue that performance. Expenses can only be cut so far. It's clear that sales will be declining in the current quarter given that the world economy seemingly hit a brick wall in October.

The expectation is that the weakness has only just begun. Investors initially greeted the news from Dell positively, sending shares higher in the after-hours market, but that enthusiasm waned as investors worried that things could indeed get much worse.

Dell finished Friday down more than 5% to close at $9.30 per share. Not even a late-day short-covering surge could help change the sentiment for Dell.

The good news for Dell is that it is profitable. The downturn, though painful, will eventually end with the economy recovering at some point. To the extent Dell becomes a lean, mean fighting machine, investors today will be rewarded.

Yes the stock can and most likely will go lower from here.

That said, we are closer to a bottom than a top. I'd use the weakness to ring Dell's bell.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-147.6010,316.80
NASDAQ-32.652,143.40
S&P 500-17.911,092.72

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 12:36 PM

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