China is shortly expected to implement both wage increases and tax cuts to promote consumer spending and economic growth.
The National Development and Reform Commission is considering the measure, which would affect about 6.5% of China's employees. The policy will help keep the nation's economy growing at an adequate rate, so says economist David H. Wang.
"In a classic development trend, China is incorporating more and more people from the countryside into its cities, and therefore needs a high rate of growth, just to absorb these additional workers and maintain social stability. That means a GDP growth rate of a least 6-7%," Wang said. "These measures give China a reasonable, 50-60% chance of attaining that growth rate in 2009."
Prior to this year, China's problem had been runaway growth, which contributed to domestic inflation, construction sector excesses, and commodities price pressure, worldwide. But then the global financial crisis hit and both emerging market and U.S. economic growth slowed -- the latter slowing China's economy considerably, due to reduced demand for exports in the U.S. Further, global economic conditions deteriorated in latter 2008 to such a degree that China's GDP growth was in danger of falling under 5%, Wang said, "a rate tantamount to a recession in emerging market China."
China then announced a $586 billion fiscal stimulus package to counteract the decline in global demand for its products. The likely, upcoming wage hike / tax cut would be in addition to the fiscal spending package.
China's other lesson from the global economic slowdown? Broadening its middle class to create more domestic demand, Wang said.
"China has learned that an export-dominated economy is a two-edged sword, because it leaves your economy vulnerable to the whims of international demand," Wang said. "China's leaders now know they must create domestic demand at home to create the self-reliant, modern, dynamic economy that they seek."
Economic Analysis: A much-welcomed and much-needed policy action by China. China is doing its part to jump-start demand by creating new sources of both consumer and business spending, via wage increases, tax cuts and infrastructure projects. Further, it would be great if the U.S could increase wages like China: unfortunately aside from tax cuts and the earned income tax credit, the U.S. doesn't have that capability, so it will have to rely on classic fiscal stimulus -- and a large one, $400-700 billion.


