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Should the U.S. consider a national, home mortgage foreclosure time-out?

Posted Nov 24th 2008 9:27AM by Joseph LazzaroJoseph Lazzaro RSS Feed
Filed under: Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Politics, Housing, Recession, Financial Crisis

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No mainstream economist or analysts thought the United States financial system and economy would ever face circumstances like these, but fundamentals and a negative spiral have worsened to such a degree that the nation may have to implement a temporary, home mortgage foreclosure for all mortgages, according to an economist.

Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) have already announced a six-week halt to foreclosures and evictions through the holidays, lasting until January 9, to give the servicers time to implement their own program for at-risk mortgages, Bloomberg News reported. The government-sponsored enterprises own or guarantee $5.2 trillion of the $12 trillion U.S. home mortgage market.

National moratorium needed?


Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks a national moratorium on the remaining roughly $7 trillion in mortgages would give the incoming Obama Administration time to play-catch up, after the Bush Administration's underperformance on a universal, streamlined mortgage refinancing program. If implemented, the plan would end the rise in home foreclosures that's causing the securities defaults that are elongating the financial crisis.


"The FDIC / Indy Mac refinance plan should have been in place by now, but it's not, due to a conflict with the U.S. Treasury Department and/or opposition from the Bush Administration. The result has been a continuance of home foreclosures that could have been avoided. And that's the main reason financial markets are not strengthening," Felson said. "The sooner we end the 'toxic debt expressway' the better, and a moratorium will give the new Obama Administration a chance to call 'time-out,' get a program running, and stop this vicious cycle of foreclosure, toxic debt, and continued financial system stress."

Further, Felson said he'll leave it to historians to ultimately decide the Bush Administration's performance record on mortgage refinancing for preventable foreclosures, but in his view, "right now it just looks like another problem they did not want to address and just left for the Obama Administration to figure out."

"The administration's HOPE Now refinance program has been woefully inadequate. But that's the past," Felson said. "The important thing now is to approve a home foreclosure and eviction moratorium for at least 3 months, and get an FDIC or comparable refinance plan up and running. A major source of the economic contraction is the housing slump, which begins with foreclosures. End the foreclosures, and the housing sector begins to recover."

Felson added that a federal refinance program could add as much as $75-100 billion per year to the U.S. budget deficit, but if eliminates $150-200 billion in federal / state social service costs, and increases GDP by $350-500 billion, as it would likely do, "the program will be more than worth the expense, both short-term and long-term."

Housing Sector / Economic Analysis: President-elect Barack Obama should also appoint FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, a strong supporter of the Indy Mac-model - - a comprehensive, proactive mortgage refinance program - - as U.S. Mortgage Czar, Felson said. Bair would work closely with U.S. Treasury Secretary-designate Timothy Geithner to implement the program.

Tags: banking sector, banks, FDIC, featured, foreclosures, median home prices, mortgage backed securities, mortgages, Obama, Obama Administration, Paulson, Sheila Bair, U.S. Treasury

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