No mainstream economist or analysts thought the United States financial system and economy would ever face circumstances like these, but fundamentals and a negative spiral have worsened to such a degree that the nation may have to implement a temporary, home mortgage foreclosure for all mortgages, according to an economist. Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) have already announced a six-week halt to foreclosures and evictions through the holidays, lasting until January 9, to give the servicers time to implement their own program for at-risk mortgages, Bloomberg News reported. The government-sponsored enterprises own or guarantee $5.2 trillion of the $12 trillion U.S. home mortgage market.
National moratorium needed?
Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks a national moratorium on the remaining roughly $7 trillion in mortgages would give the incoming Obama Administration time to play-catch up, after the Bush Administration's underperformance on a universal, streamlined mortgage refinancing program. If implemented, the plan would end the rise in home foreclosures that's causing the securities defaults that are elongating the financial crisis.
"The FDIC / Indy Mac refinance plan should have been in place by now, but it's not, due to a conflict with the U.S. Treasury Department and/or opposition from the Bush Administration. The result has been a continuance of home foreclosures that could have been avoided. And that's the main reason financial markets are not strengthening," Felson said. "The sooner we end the 'toxic debt expressway' the better, and a moratorium will give the new Obama Administration a chance to call 'time-out,' get a program running, and stop this vicious cycle of foreclosure, toxic debt, and continued financial system stress."
Further, Felson said he'll leave it to historians to ultimately decide the Bush Administration's performance record on mortgage refinancing for preventable foreclosures, but in his view, "right now it just looks like another problem they did not want to address and just left for the Obama Administration to figure out."
"The administration's HOPE Now refinance program has been woefully inadequate. But that's the past," Felson said. "The important thing now is to approve a home foreclosure and eviction moratorium for at least 3 months, and get an FDIC or comparable refinance plan up and running. A major source of the economic contraction is the housing slump, which begins with foreclosures. End the foreclosures, and the housing sector begins to recover."
Felson added that a federal refinance program could add as much as $75-100 billion per year to the U.S. budget deficit, but if eliminates $150-200 billion in federal / state social service costs, and increases GDP by $350-500 billion, as it would likely do, "the program will be more than worth the expense, both short-term and long-term."
Housing Sector / Economic Analysis: President-elect Barack Obama should also appoint FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, a strong supporter of the Indy Mac-model - - a comprehensive, proactive mortgage refinance program - - as U.S. Mortgage Czar, Felson said. Bair would work closely with U.S. Treasury Secretary-designate Timothy Geithner to implement the program.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-24-2008 @ 10:52AM
beanspants said...
NO the US does not need a foreclosure timeout.
Felson needs to pull his head out and think about the negative externalaties of cutting off foreclosures.
Let's get the big ones out of the way:
1. 600 years of contract law down the drain
2. Current payers stopping paying to get some of the benefit.
3. Banks losing money and not being able to re-sell the property.
4. Person who very probably lied/trumped up their income gets to remain in a property they never could afford in the first place.
5. Person probably lied to lender and said rental was a primary residence so as to get lower mortgage rates.
And then, after thinking about those, he needs to consider the bigger implication of this mess:
Why would you, if the house next door to yours sells for a large percent less than the price of yours due to the mortgage crisis, want to remain in your current payment with an extended repayment anyways?
We are in a period where most people think about houses as investments - they are sold that way, people move every 6-7 years, so economist grandstanding about the intrinsic value of a house (safety, permanence, an owner not a renter) is gone. If an investment fell 20%-50%, would you tell someone to hold on, or to sell and try somewhere else? Remember Mr. Economist that people make the rational choice.
For many of the at-risk homeowners, there is no fair price they will stay in current residence at. We can keep them in their houses at a now fair price, but go back to #1 above.
Now, Mr. Genius Economist has to pick the ones 'at risk' and really really want to stay vs the ones who want to give their houses back? Good luck pal.
We've already seen the value of your profession.
11-28-2008 @ 11:54AM
William Cain said...
Stop the B.S. Were Mad as Hell and were not going to take it anymore.
Want to talk about an American people confidence booster and a way to re stimulate the economy I have a simple solution. I hope you will take this idea seriously and kick it around, great ideas do come out of left field maybe you can figure out a way to get this passed thru Congress and pass it on to President Obama.
Let’s call it the AMERICAN PEOPLE’S PLAN
We have every right to be angry about the bail outs; it always seems we are bailing out the wrong people (financials, car companies, insurance companies, etc.etc.) all of whom keep getting us into recessions or depressions decades after decades. Giving the taxpayer $300.00 in a rebate was peanuts and did nothing to help the consumers. It was peanuts compared to the billion dollar steaks and filet mignon we are giving to the banks and other institutions. It would be better to give every American who filed a tax return or holds a legitimate social security card $5,000(call it our bonus) each year over a 4 year period, that way housing will recover and spending will improve dramatically which would do a lot more for people’s confidence in the system all of which would end up in the wide system instead of what we have now the rich get richer the poor get poorer and the middle class disappears.
. I know the conservatives will hate this idea calling it socialism even though it’s our money, (they don’t have a problem bailing out their special interest’s) but there was a saying in a previous election (it’s the economy stupid) I would say now (it's the consumer stupid). Give us our money we will do a much better job at getting it into the economy. Call your Senator and Congress person and demand this plan.
We can see from Reagan on thru Bush that Trickle Down economics only works for what I call the gated community society. Not only do a select few decide what slice of the pie a majority of hard working productive people get, they want to control the pie making machine and give out a smaller slice of the pie.
Bet if you did a poll my ideas would be more respected and accepted by the majority than Mr. Hank Paulson’s ideas or lack of.
Replacing good living wages with cheap labor and creating a smoke and mirrors here’s a credit card to keep you happy economy is a scam. Even Henry Ford I'm sure a conservative realized you have to pay a decent salary to workers if you are to have consumers. The obscene compensation that CEO are getting is criminal more like the days of Rome or the aristocracy of France before the revolution and then a few heads came off. I hear some of these talking heads on T. V. saying that these CEO’s work hard for their money well I'll tell you what, the guy who picks up your garbage or the nurse who changes your bed pan or the waiter who serves you a meal works just as hard but in a different way and doesn't have the inside information or contacts to make what I call something for nothing money.
Fairness, transparency, education and accountably this is what the American people want and deserve. Otherwise we are doomed to fail and I would hate to be around if we find ourselves in a violent revolution.
Damn it to hell every day I watch some talking head going over solutions to the economy or future action that might be taken and as usual they are missing the bull’s eye. You can yap all you want but until you keep repeating the mantra (Give every American tax payer and legal social security card holder $5,000 each year for the next 4 years) every day and show the American people how to get Congress to enact this plan your just blowing hot air and misdirecting the American public. Tell them what the real cost of the bail out is so far 7 Trillion and counting (up front cash, guarantees, loans, subsidies etc.etc. and that it works out to about $25,000 per American) Maybe what we need is a new French style revolution. They say that the last rebate didn’t do any good of course not would $300.00 do you any good, but I would bet $5,000 would help.
I feel like were in some kind of giant government, big business Ponzi or pyramid scheme. Scandal after scandal, bail out after bail out and the American people keep getting screwed .In the recent scam Congress takes tax payers money and gives it to banks and other criminal players in this most recent scandal, who in turn loan it back to us at high rates (it’s like double taxation). The 8% return that the American people are someday suppose to get will not even cover the interest that will have to be paid on the money we borrow from foreign governments.
Peace
William Cain
artistcain
La Quinta, CA.
www.williamcain.com
12-01-2008 @ 7:57PM
trea said...
WE SHOULD STOP FORECLOSURES AND MODIFY ALL LOANS, ADDING BALANCE DUE TO END OF MORTGAGE AND STARTING PAYMENTS AS OF JAN. 1, 2009 FOR EVERYONE. THE BANKS CAN DO WITHOUT INTREST FOR A MONTH AND THIS WILL ALLOW EVERYONE IN AMERICA A BREAK, IT WILL BOOST THE ECONOMY AND THE GOVERNMENT IS ALREADY GIVING THEM MONEY IN THE MEAN TIME. NOT EVERYONE IN FORECLOSURE WAS OVER THEIR HEADS. WE ARE FACING FORECLOSURE BECAUSE WE WORK IN THE AUTO INDUSTRY WHICH OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS HAS GONE DOWNWARD, MY HUSBAND LOST HIS JOB 5 MONTHS TRYING TO GET A NEW ONE COST US NEARLY OUR HOME NOW.. WE MAKE OVER 200K, 1300 HOUSE PAYMENT.. WE CAN AFFORD IT NOW BUT BANKS SAY THEY WILL HELP BUT DONT..TOO MANY RULES ETC.. NOT OUR FAULT, WE HAVE A BLENDED FAMILY OF 5 KIDS AND CUSTODY OF A GRANDBABY.. WE NEED OUR SMALL MODEST HOME.. DESPERATELY!
12-11-2008 @ 5:50PM
Karen Davis said...
All of these bank CEO's have gone to college to make a mess of all the real estate that is literally wasting away. Common sense would tell you to let the people stay in their homes and let them pay as much as they can on their mortgages. It does not make sense to put people out of their homes and then let the houses sit and rot, pipes bursting, copper being taken out of them, and on top of that the cities and towns are losing tax revenue. Come on use, use some common sense.
Let the people stay in their homes. All we are going to end up with are banks owning thousands and thousands of homes that they will not be able to sell if they sit decaying for long periods of time. And we bailed the banks out for this and they are not even helping the taxpayers. Good decision law makers of the U.S!!