On Saturday of this past weekend, I was discussing the domestic box-office potential of Summit Entertainment's Twilight with a friend of mine (we didn't discuss the ranking potential since one didn't need to be a clairvoyant to see a first-place showing in the film's immediate future).
I initially proffered a $100 million take in terms of a prediction, but then backed down and decided that $80 million might be more like it. I wasn't sure if Twilight, even with all its hype, could possibly propel itself to a number that was recorded in three digits. Well, in an overall sense, I was completely wrong. Although the movie didn't make $100 million, I still obviously thought that it was stronger than it turned out to be.
According to published estimates from Boxofficemojo at the time of this writing (final numbers are due later), Twilight pulled in around $70 million. Don't get me wrong, that's a big take, and the movie did beat Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Quantum of Solace, which came in second. But, according to the daily estimates, the Friday-through-Sunday numbers show a decidedly negative trend.
It's interesting, too, because when I saw the $35 million Friday figure, I really thought that something higher than $70 million would be the end result. On Saturday, however, Twilight's take dropped over 40% when compared to its opening day, and on Sunday, the drop was almost 35% compared to Saturday.
I suppose some will argue that this was to be expected considering the fad-like nature of the excitement surrounding the project. But if the teens really loved the film, wouldn't their excitement have meant an increase from Friday's take on at least one of the remaining two days of the weekend? No matter what, though, this is now a bona fide franchise.
The other interesting story of the weekend for me (and probably every other box-office watcher) was how well Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Bolt would perform. Bolt came in third with $27 million. However, Quantum of Solace grossed about the same estimated amount, so the ranking might change.
Here's how I feel about Disney's performance: I was disappointed. I thought the commercials made the film look great. The story seemed fun and creative, the comedy came off as appealing, and the animation looked to be of high quality. Considering that DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, which was distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), pulled in $63 million in its debut weekend not long ago, I can't understand why Bolt couldn't have barked up at least half that amount.
Bolt is actually pretty important to Disney shareholders (I am one myself). It's a test to see if the intellectual capital acquired during the Pixar purchase (i.e., John Lasseter) can enhance Disney's animation brand. Of course, this is only the first test. Nevertheless, like I said, I wasn't wholly impressed.
Next weekend will be telling for both Twilight and Bolt. Can they compete with all the upcoming turkey dinners? I have a feeling they'll hold their own...
Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-24-2008 @ 3:16PM
Sammy said...
Impressive box office numbers, but I'm just feeling a little dead inside after seeing the movie. Too many changes from the book, poor acting, laughable dialogue. Meh.
11-24-2008 @ 3:17PM
Sammy said...
Oh yeah, here's that link of changes that the movie made from the book.
http://twilightsaga.wikia.com/wiki/Twilight_book_to_movie_differences