Many economists run economic models, or projections, of future economic activity based on a given set of assumptions.

Economist David H. Wang is one who runs projections, and the four scenarios he completed recently for the U.S. economy's condition in six months probably will not surprise policy makers in Washington or market analysts in New York.

Projections do not look pleasant

"The models show conditions that range from to poor, to very poor, to major contraction, to let's not talk about it," Wang said.

A major variable concerning what shape the U.S. economy will be in six months from now? Consumer spending for the holiday shopping season, Wang said.

"The fourth quarter is a key revenue quarter for retail and several other sectors, and a pronounced decrease in sales would certainly hurt the U.S. economy," Wang said. "Unfortunately, right now there are telling factors that point to a very poor holiday shopping season, as one might expect."

The most important consequence of a poor Q4? Wang said, more than likely a sub-par Q4 would lead to increased lay-offs by retailers, with a possibility of some retail chains ceasing operations altogether. "The GDP contraction for Q4 most likely will be worse than Q3, where the economy shrank 0.5%," Wang said. "A poor Q4 holiday season combined with the prospect of a difficult Q1 and Q2 for retailers, would prompt job cuts, and store closures, I'm certain," Wang said.