Well, I'll be. They are finally getting their hands dirty. Two new programs announced Tuesday are the most bold and, frankly, foolproof yet because they can't not work. The first, the buying of GSE debt, immediately took mortgage rates below 5%. In one day! That will, at last, trigger a huge wave of refinancing and a definite rush to buy homes for those who have been holding back. I reiterate that housing bottoms next year!
The second, needed to jumpstart the completely moribund asset-backed market, will allow you to buy asset-backed bonds that are guaranteed by the Treasury, meaning that you would be a fool not to borrow because you are buying risk-free bonds with much higher rates than Treasuries. How can that not work? How can you not want to lever up to buy them? At last we are totally interventionist with all stops being pulled out, no niceties. We are just printing money and giving it at a great rate to anyone who wants it.
One of the most exasperating elements of this financial era is the desire of the feds not to intervene in situations that demand intervention. There's a quartet of fellows at fault: New York Fed president and soon to be Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner; Chris Cox of the Securities and Exchange Commission; Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve; and Hank Paulson of Treasury.
Right now we are supposed to believe that everything good is from Geithner and he has made no wrong moves. But Bernanke's also blessed with no critics whatsoever. Cox, we all know, is over his head but somehow we have exonerated him because the New York Fed has primary responsibility for the banks. But again, Geithner's done nothing wrong, so that means Paulson must be at fault.
Paulson's a big target and he has screwed up mightily.
But all of the fancy, elegant solutions to set up lots of borrowing facilities have failed miserably and those are done by the Fed. The press and the "sources" led us to believe that these solutions from the Fed are all as if by magic because Bernanke's against them and they have been wrong so they can't be Geithner's fault.
Still, now, with the direct buying of mortgages, something if, had it been done in the spring, probably would have saved Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) or at least saved the preferreds, we are getting the kind of bolder action that should have been done months ago.
You see, we have still yet to attack the root cause, the home price depreciation, with any gusto, and the Fed, which encouraged toxic mortgages, claims to have clean hands on this but does nothing to undo them. That's all been left to the one actor on the scene who has actually called for rigorous bold action: Sheila Bair at the FDIC.
I can tell you for a fact that the Federal Reserve simply didn't believe we were in trouble of systemic risk. The whole way it didn't. All it saw was a need to cut rates and do no more except supply a lot of interesting credit facilities that did nothing. Treasury came up with a great plan to buy bad assets but it was overrun by systemic risk.
Because no one is ever held accountable for any of the failures we have had, and because it is all ad hoc, it probably hasn't sunk in but what the government is doing now is making everything a Treasury and making every guarantee a federal guarantee. They have gone from being laissez-faire and "judicious" in their use of guarantees to simply panicking and letting everyone win, the common stock holders included, as we saw from Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take). They have now created a situation where Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) and JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) (Cramer's Take) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) would be nuts not to go to the government and ask for the same help as Citigroup. Especially Goldman, which has no dividend to speak of.
What's wrong with all of this? I will tell you what is wrong. They simply refuse to say it out loud: "Things are falling apart and we will not stop until they are fixed and we will guarantee and buy whatever is necessary and we will not wipe out the common stock or the preferred or whatever provided you have done the following" and then give us the darned instructions and guidelines. The uncertainty just makes every move up a squeeze from shorts not sure what the next move is from longs who want in to stay in.
I am appalled that no one takes any responsibility in this government and everyone is exonerated. I am appalled because I know for a fact that everything that has been done in the last few weeks was proposed to these guys in one form or another for more than a year. In each case the Fed dismissed it, whether it be Bernanke or Geithner, although it can't be Geithner, because he has done nothing wrong, right?
So now what's happening? The pessimist in me says it is not too little too late, it is too lot too late. The issue going forward has permeated to well beyond housing and banking and is now unemployment and this administration doesn't even know it yet.
At least Obama knows it. And I am not worried about the new Treasury secretary's role because, alas, he never does anything wrong!
Random musings: Were housing stocks so wrong to rally? I don't think so if rates stay down. The most solvent ones -- Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) -- win! Also, Chinese rate cuts are huge but we need the European Central Bank. China still has many points to take down.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-26-2008 @ 10:10AM
nick said...
People like Crammer and MSNBC are the main people behind this fall out. They were asleep at the switch and don't know if they did it on purpose or not why their jewish carpet baggers got rich on the backs of us poor 401k sheep. Tell it like it is Crammer, these folks at MSNBC make seven figure salarys and try rpt try to fool the folks like they are just like the poor slobs on main street. Give us a break.
11-26-2008 @ 10:22AM
Virgil Bierschwale said...
Here's what amazes me that our government doesnt seem to get.
The American consumer accounts for 70% of all purchases in America.
Credit does not create jobs.
Manufacturing does not create jobs
Banks do not create jobs.
A consumer wanting something that they can't make for themselves creates jobs.
So how are we fixing our economy by sending our jobs offshore ?
You might want to read my article titled "FIre Secretary Paulson" to see what he is doing to help fix the American economy.
Virgil
http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com
11-26-2008 @ 10:41AM
bshlensky said...
It is easy to blame everyone but what we really need is to take responsibility and all of us change . Alcoholics Anonymous and Costco offer some internesting models .
The impact of the economy in recent weeks has witnessed a disturbing reaction: Denial and Disbelief. Auto Company and banking executives who are in crises mode seem arrogant and unwilling to recognize long term issues and even consider dramatic alternatives. I have been in several meetings with entrepreneurial companies who seem to be waiting for their 10% to 30% sales declines, credit restrictions and profit erosion to simply return to the good old days. Individuals out of work are pursuing the same old tactics and not recognizing the realities of their situations and industries .The government is responding quickly with new proposals every day. However the efforts seem to be out of panic, unplanned and with little thought of the consequences.
There are some bright efforts of organizations recognizing realities and reacting:
• Many banks and the FDIC are trying to renegotiate some mortgages to keep them viable rather than face foreclosures and even greater losses for all parties.
• Some businesses are liquidating which should make other competitors stronger.
• There is great hope for the Obama administration and he seems to be appointing excellent, experienced, and motivated people regardless of ones politics. One major concern is that the hope may subside once the depth of problems and timing of solutions is really understood.
• There is a double edge sword of consumers reducing spending but further impairing the economy.
• Some of the factors which created the economic crises such as cheap mortgages, increased spending and debt, and risky credit instruments are being reduced and modified.
However, it is clear that denial and disbelief are the dominant themes with much less real change than necessary. I recommend that institutions, organizations and individuals consider the philosophies of two proven but diverse programs in dealing with the economic crises. The first is the AA model. It preaches to recognize the problem and acknowledge publicly that we are in crises. It preaches to attack the problem both at the roots and one day at a time.
The second model is Costco. They sell the key items people really want with the lowest possible cost structure. The American economy has depended on growth from the continued proliferation of mostly mediocre products. Many companies’ sales will decline 10 % to 30 % from 2008 to 2010. They simply need to focus on what is most needed, most profitable and most competitively unique. Grocery stores, make up, apparel automobiles, and electronics are examples of categories with almost obscene proliferation that need to recognize the costs and saturation of their markets. Some specific ideas that derive from these models are as follows:
1. Acknowledge the economy is different and plan for 10 %-30 % decline on sales, housing values, retirement funds etc. for 1-3 years.
2. Consider targeting the three E’s: energy, education and the environment for dramatic investment. The Obama stimulous plan may be a start in this area .
3. Slash unproductive, duplicative, unprofitable models, products, and services.
4. Reduce costs, prices and expenditures 10% to 30% by assessing everything and in particular the structures of how we do things.
5. Retain the best people, resources etc. and allow them to be more productive, included and innovative through better communication, collaboration, out of the box thinking and openness.
6. Recognize the speed of change and the need to act appropriately.
7. Expand efforts to spin off entities and out source activities to focus on core areas and achieve the best and most cost effective results.
8. Trade pay cuts for incentives such as performance bonuses and stock options. This acknowledging that executive compensation is abusrd .
9. Consider acquisitions , mergers and even bankruptcy to create more productive organizations
10. Predictable trends such as aging of the population, the internet, China, India, etc need to part of every program.
11-26-2008 @ 10:45AM
Dan Barnett said...
Okay Jim,
If you are right and the root cause of all the problems is the decline in housing values, how do you fix it? How do you get somebody to pay more than they think the property is worth? Slowing forcloseures so that there are fewer forced sales? Doing that now. What else is there to be done?
Nick,
"Jewish carpet-baggers"? Really now, this is a civilized site.
11-26-2008 @ 10:55AM
Gary Gnu said...
The Fed is not the solution; it is the problem. Stealing America's wealth since 1913.
11-26-2008 @ 10:56AM
John said...
Com on CRAMER! They chnaged the credit qualifications. MOST Americans that we NEED to buy are at the bottom of the pyramid. We need them to buy the starter homes os the rest can move up.
HOW ARE WE GOING TO GET THE CREDIT TO THEM? They do not have 600+ FICO Scores! HELLOOO all you !@#$ that make ridicuolus salaries!
How are we going to get the credit to the 1099 workers and small business who have had their crdit scores hammered over the last year?
DUHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
11-26-2008 @ 11:12AM
joe said...
SURE its allways the other guy NEVER you an boy george! OBAMA will fix it though he don't sit on his hands!and watch HE ALLREADY STARTED!
11-26-2008 @ 11:34AM
murray silver said...
yay, jimmy! accountability rules the day...so when are we going to get an apology out of you for prompting us to buy stocks at record highs just hours before the big decline began a couple months ago? how about you, jimmy? done nothing wrong...lately?
11-26-2008 @ 11:38AM
Karl said...
David Rockefeller and the globalist oil banking elite. CEO, chairman Chase Bank, HON. chairman for life Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commision, Bilderburger, had Cheney as a director at CFR, and Obama's chief foreign policy advisor who co-founded the Trilateral Commision. These boys invented the CIA out of the OSS which ran right out of their building in NYC and had Dulles as their lawyer. NAFTA, WTO, all these phony "free trade" agreements, fraud wars, and the outsourcing of our real economy to Communist China for cheap slave labor. JP Morgan and John D. Rockefeller figured a long time ago if you control energy and the money you have them by the balls and their heirs do. Globalist power freaks and JP Morgan Chase took out their competition with Goldman Sachs, is the biggest player in M&A in Chindia, the 1,200 trillion derivatives market, and seized control of the US Treasury. Simple, follow the money to the winners. Back to Hollywood Insider!
11-26-2008 @ 12:10PM
Alan said...
I lost 90% of my retirement savings listening to this 'expert'. take a hike off a short bridge and don't come back.
11-26-2008 @ 12:17PM
Tom said...
Cramer is right. What is so sad is that I saw on Fox News people buying homes on interest only. They would sell one and make 50 grand off of it and would buy 10 more. This is a Gov. created Ponzi game. Everybody said how good Allen Greenspan was keeping interest rates extremely low. He was a dud. The signs were there, but nobody paid attention to them. Folks we are really in bad bad bad shape.
11-26-2008 @ 12:27PM
SKM said...
The culprits for the economic meltdown?
Alan Greenspan,Ben Bernanke, Bernie Franks, Chris Dodd, Chuck Shumer, Chris Cox, Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac and all of the banking and mortgage committees. Everybody was asleep at the wheel.
Wall Street and their engineered products, like CDO's, SIV's and CDS's,packaged toxic junk and sold it like it was gold. It turned out that those "SMART BOYS OF WALL STREET" were nothing more but a bunch of clowns.
11-26-2008 @ 5:03PM
beachpaul said...
So, JIMBO, we are going to stop real estate erosion and that will make everyone a believer again. It will convince people, banks, businesses, that house they bought that is now worth, 30 or 40 per cent less than what they bought it for, will now gain it all back and eventually, like the DOW, be worth even more than what they paid for it. What, are you hanging out with Rush now? Popping the Vicodans?
11-26-2008 @ 9:07PM
Ron said...
Cramer is not a good source to give serious attention to especially when he talks about the economy. He's not even very good as a so-called market expert. May of his calls are wrong or at best are after the fact. He is just entertainment much the same as the stooge called SHEMP.
12-05-2008 @ 12:08AM
frank said...
The number 1 reason for this recession is the high oil prices over the passed few years. Think about it. How has high gas, food, electric and heating costs affected you, every home owner and every business.
Now that oil has come down the economy will start to get better. It will take time for the economy to turn around. Oil prices MUST stay down.
we need new sources of energy. We need to stop being dependent on foreign oil.