Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) released its Q4 earnings on Tuesday. Did the numbers have all the makings of a hit? To start off, revenues declined over 1%. That's not hit material, to be certain. Here's something that might get your toes tapping, however: income from continuing operations came in at $0.04 per share, a pretty musical achievement considering that analysts thought that a loss of $0.02 per share would be recorded. And I have to note that the company did pretty good on the free-cash-flow front (I also noted this in a previous piece).
But here's the deal with Warner Music Group: like the music industry in general, it's still trying to adjust to the digital age. Buying music recorded on physical media just isn't where it's at these days, thanks to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and others. The music industry would really love to get more money for their content, but because of the popularity of the low-pricing scheme at iTunes and other download sites, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. Indeed, when I purchase songs at Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), I really appreciate that $0.99 price point, and I probably would loathe paying $1.29, $1.39, etc., per tune.
In the end, even with the earnings beat, I'm not sure I could seriously consider Warner Music Group as a great investment idea. Forget that the company's release schedule is reportedly being affected by the recession and that this may shift potential earnings excitement to the latter part of the year -- you've got to remember that this is a low-priced stock in a difficult market environment. As of Tuesday's close, Warner Music Group was trading for less than $3 per share. The stock has been very weak lately, a falling knife, in fact. Best not to attempt a catch of this particular blade.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-26-2008 @ 2:16PM
beachpaul said...
My heart wants to purchase this stock so badly, my mind just says no. It was such a great company and may still be. Watching it fall this past year brings up so many mixed feelings about the whole music industry and how it brought this upon itself. It's greed and lack of foresight and refusal to change and anticipate changes in the crossover from analog to digital is just sad. It has to be a good takeover target, after all, even napster sold. I love this company. I have wanted to gobble up a thousand shares each step of the way down. But my mind keeps saying no.
11-26-2008 @ 2:26PM
Beltway Greg said...
Light is to dark as good is to bad as Steve Jobs is to Edgar Bronfman, Jr. Remember what Warren Buffett says about making sure that a company is so easy to run that even an idiot can do it because sooner or later an idiot will be at the helm. Do a little research on Edgar and you draw your own conclusions as to why the stock continues to fall. No offense Edgar but do you really think that singers want to record your songs? That same type of delusional behavior costs your shareholders millions.
11-28-2008 @ 10:48PM
paul said...
Wow it is really an eye opener. I may as well invite you to musicobsession site.
11-30-2008 @ 8:17PM
Beltway Greg said...
I love music and spent a few hours on the site. I'll be back to buy some boots.