Computer-networking icon Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trying to cut costs wherever it can. In a sign of the times, Cisco will shut offices for four days during the Christmas/New-Year period in an effort to defend its profit margins (critical operations will remain open). Other tech companies that are trying to utilize time off for employees as a way of saving money include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE).
When I read headlines like this, it makes me doubt the current rally we've seen in the markets. Indeed, bear-market rallies are common when things get way oversold. Then the euphoria gets put in perspective when we realize that it's going to be a long time until the economy truly finds its way back into a cycle of growth.
Businesses like Cisco will suffer from declining top-line sales as its customers become increasingly conservative with their investment capital. At that point, the only defensive move is to cut costs. And that's not a great position to be in. It limits management's ability to run operations, and it sends a bad message to Wall Street. Like some people have been saying, tools such as cost-cutting and layoffs aren't necessarily being perceived as positive elements in this cycle; they only serve to accentuate the dread of the slowing global economy.
Of course, I know that an inflection point will be reached and that the market will begin to discount all the bad news that will eventually be reported. At some time in the future (hopefully it won't be too far off, although I have my concerns) the market will look at the depressing news flow as nothing but a bunch of lagging indicators. I don't think we're there yet, and I remain bearish on tech.
I think you can look at Apple and Hewlett-Packard, though, as solid long-term ideas. My favorite technology name to at least consider is Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). I know that this blue-chip Dow component hasn't done too well over the years in terms of stock appreciation, but you have to admit it's relatively safe. Maybe wait for that one to pull back closer to its 52-week low for a good entry point. Cisco is a name I certainly wouldn't be buying now.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
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