Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) is scheduled to report earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday, December 2. The expectation is for a loss of $0.49 per share. I think it's therefore safe to say that the retailer won't be turning a profit.
Sears has been one awful retail story as of late. Actually, just about every retailer has been awful as of late. It's no surprise, of course, considering the economy. But Sears has been experiencing challenges even beyond what can be explained by the economy. The company has been missing estimates, same-store sales haven't been great, and if you take the time to talk to people about Sears, or if you follow the comments of pundits, you'll sometimes note a tone of repulsion when it comes to the big chain.
I haven't been a fan of the shopping experience at Sears either, and it's been a very, very long time since I've stepped into a Kmart. In fact, there isn't a Kmart close to me. Eddie Lampert's enormous task of helping to turn this ship around is not one I envy. Of course, many retailers make the mistake of only focusing on merchandising in the stores and figuring out what should be in the weekly circulars. Don't get me wrong, that's important stuff. But Sears needs to engage a branding campaign to make people feel good about its stores, to feel confident about the shopping environment. When you look at TV ads by Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT), you can't help but marvel at the branding acumen of those retailers. Sears needs to get creative, too.
Come Tuesday, I expect Sears to report dismal numbers.
Let me give you a preview of what I intend to do if Sears beats expectations and the market gets all excited and the stock pops to the upside: nothing. Absolutely nothing. My bearish tendencies on the stock have only increased since I reported on the company's Q1 numbers. I don't know if it's a perfect short right here considering that the stock would conceivably follow the market to the upside if sentiment improves, but I cannot see buying Sears for any reason.
Besides, I don't have confidence that the company can beat Wall Street's numbers (and Sears is certainly going to have a tough Christmas as Douglas McIntyre makes clear). I hope Eddie Lampert and his colleagues are working overtime to get this retailing house back in order.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-28-2008 @ 1:43PM
Kevin said...
Oddly enough, I thought the problem with the sears Kmart was just advertising. I went to about 7 of the stores recently for a project within them that required cooperation with managers and associates. I went to sears, Kmart and the sears/kmart store.
Kmart= almost no one in the store, very high turnover rates, and underpaid associates.
Sears/Kmart= More people in the store, higher turnover on the management levels.
Sears= qualified salespeople, good managers, still higher turnover on the associate side but still more customers than Kmart and Kmart/sears
Other things I am noticing within these stores.
Kmart has generally the dirtiest bathrooms, associates who are underpaid and not very enthusiastic. Yet, I find that I really like their seasonal section. It has some really good displays, great product and well setup. I like their overall product selection better too. The merchandising and colors totally throw off the feel of the store though. Where walmart will have lozier shelving all around with clean sharp, crisp look from front to back. Kmart will have shelves that don't meet any acceptable form of code and are built of the cheapest measure that it's a wonder they don't fall apart.
Kmart/sears is only slightly better as the enthusiasm is higher but still with lower pay and overwhelmed managers who can barely keep pace with the store changes. The shelving setups are better than plain Kmart. So are the displays and seasonal sections. I wouldn't mind shopping here.
Sears, the employee's are nice, the management has really nice offices, employee's are not very well trained. They seem to learn everything through osmosis and teaching themselves rather than training provided by store. I think this is pretty conistent throughout sears and Kmart. But, there is a steady stream of people willing to help you out which makes for great help. Store shelving and layout is completely different. Displays are all interactive, very customer service oriented, however they don't really have some of the pieces you would want in the hardware section. It's kind of limited as far as project hardware goes.
The biggest problem that appears here is that Kmart brand and name are so synonmous with cheap that even corporate treats them as such and won't even support the stores in such a way they can compete fairly. I think Sears should put some investment down and Pull the Kmart name from all the stores and simply do Sears & Sears Roebuck. The Sears name is good and it's got a great long-term marketing platform from the old days. Going for your business, your sons, and their kids.
If they continue down that road, they can coordinate more marketing efforts, grow the brand as a whole and continue more growth.
(not edited for grammar)
11-28-2008 @ 2:47PM
Karen said...
K-MART & SEARS, ARE DOING THERE BEST
THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM
AND ANY OTHER STORE OUT THERE THEY
ARE ALL IN A BIG CRUNCH RIGHT NOW
SO BACK OFF AND GIVE THEM A BREAK
I WORKED AT ONE OF THESE STORES
FOR 30 YEARS, AND WE WERE ALWAYS
BEING CRITIZIZED. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH
GO K-MART & SEARS
11-28-2008 @ 9:16PM
Robert Stinnet said...
I stopped listening to the so-called "Experts" about SHLD (Sears) long ago. I own some stock in Sears and I base my assumptions on the traffic I see in the stores near where I live (Missouri). I've noticed since this summer:
* More people shopping Sears; and a heck of a lot more people buying appliances and flat screen TV's.
* Kmart foot traffic increasing significantly in this area. Layaway had lines through the front door. Shelves are bare not because of inventory but because people are buying.
Sears and Kmart are finally "Getting it together" I think. Layaway was a big draw this year, and they were in the right place at the right time. Sears is finally realizing that their strength is in appliances and tools, and they are expanding those areas.
So I'm willing to bet that Sears is one of the few retailers who won't be affected as much as others this holiday season. They seem to be holding their own and that is the first step towards improvement.
11-29-2008 @ 6:57AM
Joe said...
The problem here is Corporate middle management. Working in one of these stores you find that the home office does have a single vision, ITS HAS 16, 3 day sales that the company doesn t purchase enough of, outragous money spent on POP for That 3 day sale. even the ads today are hard to read with its stoic look Eddie it is not ll Bean it s sears. Stop with these focus group crap and go back to beening sears. because your not going to be the next JC penneys, or Khols or target, or walmart. Sears i believe is one of oldest retail chains it should act that way. It s brand should be it s longeveity not ty pennington. They should spin in old ads from the 50's/60's (EI Macys){one of the best commerical i ve ever seen}. Eddie you got the History man use it, and reign in these low level exec. that change their mind like i change my daughters diapers.
11-29-2008 @ 2:47PM
liam said...
I was shopping for a frig and washer and dryer.Sears was the only one who match the lowest prices with a extra 10% off.The delivery charge was minimal,compare to other retailers. They deliver and a service man came and set it all up, in a reasonal amount of time. I also purchase a extented 3 year contract,that would included a yearly check up and help with any necessary promblem.The salesperson at Sears, was the only well inform of the products compare to the other retailers.They also gave me a 10% cupon for a futher purchase, at Sears or K-Mart.
11-29-2008 @ 9:01PM
Jessy Scholl said...
I have been doing a lot of shopping at K-Mart recently and I say that the stores are pretty nice. Now I haven't been making major purchases, but the purchases I have been making border on the sales side. Recent buys include a ceramic church that was on sale in the middle of November that I know that my Mom will love, and snacks from the pantry section. Finally a VCR and TV I brought earlier this decade was from K-Mart and I still use both while a VCR I got from Wal-Mart for Christmas was total junk a few months after I got it.
11-30-2008 @ 4:09PM
trish ratliff said...
This is one example of why Sears stocks are down! I was so excited when I placed my order with Sears online for the Samsung washer and dryer on November 27th only to get an email yesterday the 28th in the afternoon that my order had been cancelled! I had looked at the great reviews of these two products and was so looking forward to replacing my 16 year old set of xxxxxx(brand name witheld). I just could not believe that I had received a confirmation of my order and was in the stores the morning of the 28th to get the cords for when mine when mine is delivered and seen others ordering theirs and knew that my order would be to my home in a few weeks. By 1:30pm on the 28th Sears had stopped taking orders at the stores and by 1:53pm I got the email that saddened me deeply that my order CANCELLED! How could that be when mine was placed long before the orders were taken at the store that of course are being fulfilled!! And I have the confirmation number and date the order was placed and was told by Sears that there is nothing they can do! I just thought I would vent a little bit and look forward to getting a set in th near future! I will try to post a copy of my confirmed order and cancellation email for everyone to see. I know Samsung would be upset to know that one of their vendors is doing this to a customer that wanted their product so bad. Signed, Disappointed and Let Down Galloway, OH