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Stay away from Citigroup (C)

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Many investors are calling brokers or turning to blogs and asking, "Is it time to buy the financials? Aren't they all safe now? Aren't they cheap?"

The bounce started with the rescues of Citigroup (NYSE: C), so let me begin right there.

The recent bailout of Citigroup is deemed to be in the billions; but the future potential amount needed at Citi, and the other banks, is in the trillions. The difference can be seen in page 21 of Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit's town hall presentation to employees on November 17. Page 21 is a perfect metaphor for all that has gone wrong and continues to be wrong in the financial system. The page is purposely obscure. I know of no journalist or published analyst who spent any serious time -- and that means more than five seconds -- considering the math presented on that page.

Using household terms such as "QSPEs" and "VIEs," Pandit revealed that Citi has more than $1.2 trillion dollars in off-balance sheet assets. These off-balance sheet entities are similar in structure to Enron's SPVs (special purpose vehicles) Citi and other banks created, and in the past backed, and they hold assets of unknown quality. I can only assume if their value was known, and anywhere near par, they would be on the balance sheet.

Page 21 has two graphs. One is a bar chart for QSPEs (qualifying special purpose entities, similar to Enron's SPVs) that describes in very succinct terms various chunks of assets. First: $667 billion in mortgage-backed securities, which has a tag "Citi does not bear credit risk. Unlikely that majority will come on balance sheet." If there is no credit risk, why not put them on the balance sheet or tell us what they are?

Second: $122 billion in QSPEs that will cease to exist when they are consolidated on the balance sheet.

Third: a little bar for a mere $31 billion with no description.

Total: $820 billion.

Oh, they also have a tag for that total that states "per accounting rule changes, will likely not exist in the future." What they're saying is that there are problems, but they're going to use accounting rules, not good business practices, to fix things.

Let's move on to the second chart on page 21 -- VIEs (variable interest entities). The total here is $406 billion. First: $324 billion in unconsolidated assets. The chart states "maximum exposure is $131 billion, with $44 billion and $87 billion unfunded."

Second: a bar for $82 billion with a tag "already consolidated, therefore no incremental exposure."

So, a potential for $324 billion unfunded new assets on the balance sheet.

No one knows what any of this masterful obfuscation means, including my own Citigroup broker. The company, in its official third-quarter filing with the SEC, said their maximum exposure is $324 billion. They discount any exposure to QSPEs due to accounting changes.

Let's do some third-grade logic and math. First, let's take 40% of the $667 billion we are told not to worry about -- less than the "unlikely majority" -- roughly $265 billion. Then, add $122 billion coming on to the balance sheet. And add the mysterious $31 billion. So far, we're at $418 billion in assets that could come on to the balance sheet. Now add $324 billion and we get $742 billion that could come onto the balance sheet if accounting changes are not accepted.

Three-quarters of a trillion dollars -- not covered, as far as I understand (details about the bailout are pretty fuzzy), under the current government bailout. And the only details are characterized by terms as precise as "unlikely," and, of course, we are told to wait for accounting changes.

I could be wrong -- and I hope I am -- but I wonder if Tim Geithner and Hank Paulson, or even Vikram Pandit, know what these assets are worth and when they will hit the balance sheet.

What is increasingly clear is that the Treasury and the Fed are doing whatever it takes to keep the system alive and, to date, this includes accepting this kind of opacity. This purposely unclear presentation of off-balance sheet assets seems to have been accepted by Geithner and Paulson, and they will need to do the same for the next bank, and the next one, and the next one.

As these assets hit the balance sheet and some percentage are written down, capital injected into Citi (and other banks) will stay as cash and reserves, not go out to borrowers. This means the banks will have little ability to generate earnings power -- you need to lend money to make money -- and are actually very overvalued right now.

Citi is not going under; it is truly too big to fail. But shareholders are going to get nailed sometime in the future. The bailout only bought them time to get out.

The bottom line: For traders and investors, it is still time to avoid the banks, especially Citi.

If you already short Citi or the banks, stay the course, but I would avoid putting new money to work until the bullish hysteria ends.

It will, and soon, so keep your powder dry.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 11:27 AM

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