Some retailers will be OK after this holiday season. They are big enough or have strong enough balance sheets to keep them afloat.

But commercial real estate loans could push some businesses to the wall, and soon.

According to the AP, one expert pointed out that "We're probably in the first inning of the commercial mortgage problem," said Scott Tross, a real estate lawyer with Herrick Feinstein in New Jersey. Amounts due next year will be in the tens of billions of dollars. Of course, banks will be stuck with those loans.

So, what happens? Banks have already been hit by everything from toxic derivatives to credit card and LBO losses. Now, they get to face another wave of defaults. And businesses with mortgages due may end up closing, putting more people out of jobs.

In all probability, the Treasury will get into the commercial loan bailout business to save banks and employment. Qualified businesses will get extensions and the government will offer credits to banks to accomplish this. Taxpayers will get one more burden.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.