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General Motors tries to make a deal with debt holders

As General Motors (NYSE: GM) works overtime to create the illusion of progress that might lure in skeptical lawmakers, it's making its debt holders an offer that will probably be easy to refuse: Swap your debt in for equity.

If I'm a GM creditor I'm saying, "No deal, Howie!" By swapping their debt for equity, bondholders will position themselves to be completely wiped out in a bankruptcy filing. Even if the company avoids bankruptcy, that equity will represent a claim on the future cash flows of a company that is burning through billions of dollars each month.

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that "GM's debt load, estimated by J.P. Morgan to total $43.3 billion at an annual interest expense of about $2.9 billion, has been a primary culprit in the company's deterioration in recent years. Many analysts have suggested GM needs to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy-court protection in order to force creditors to renegotiate."

That still seems like the most likely outcome for the company, and as long as bankruptcy remains a likely outcome, creditors are unlikely to swap senior debt for equity that will have last dibs in a Chapter 11 scenario.

And that's the ultimate catch-22 for GM: Congress is unlikely to provide the financing that would stave off a bankruptcy unless the company is able to restructure its debt to reduce its interest obligations. But that restructuring is unlikely to happen until GM can convince creditors that bankruptcy isn't a possibility.

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Last updated: November 23, 2009: 03:11 AM

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