As General Motors (NYSE: GM) works overtime to create the illusion of progress that might lure in skeptical lawmakers, it's making its debt holders an offer that will probably be easy to refuse: Swap your debt in for equity.
If I'm a GM creditor I'm saying, "No deal, Howie!" By swapping their debt for equity, bondholders will position themselves to be completely wiped out in a bankruptcy filing. Even if the company avoids bankruptcy, that equity will represent a claim on the future cash flows of a company that is burning through billions of dollars each month.
The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that "GM's debt load, estimated by J.P. Morgan to total $43.3 billion at an annual interest expense of about $2.9 billion, has been a primary culprit in the company's deterioration in recent years. Many analysts have suggested GM needs to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy-court protection in order to force creditors to renegotiate."
That still seems like the most likely outcome for the company, and as long as bankruptcy remains a likely outcome, creditors are unlikely to swap senior debt for equity that will have last dibs in a Chapter 11 scenario.
And that's the ultimate catch-22 for GM: Congress is unlikely to provide the financing that would stave off a bankruptcy unless the company is able to restructure its debt to reduce its interest obligations. But that restructuring is unlikely to happen until GM can convince creditors that bankruptcy isn't a possibility.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-29-2008 @ 1:14PM
Sam said...
There is a major problem with any restructuring that involves the debt--the credit default swaps that insure GM's debt. Given the opacity of the cds market do we have any idea which entities are on the hook for the over $1 trillion outstanding cds on GM debt? Or which banks, etc. have related cdos? I suspect the taxpayer is on the hook one way or the other (especially if AIG insured much of this debt).
11-29-2008 @ 2:19PM
xenogears728 said...
Leave Britney ALONE !
Leave her ALONE!
11-29-2008 @ 10:52PM
TX CHL Instructor said...
The longer GM takes to die, the more people will be hurt. I do NOT want the government to use my tax money to prop up a failed business model -- when you subsidize something, you just get more of it.
11-30-2008 @ 9:06AM
Joey said...
How to Fix GM – Plan One
1) Sell All of GMAC and the Insurance Business (Ditech)
2) Cut down from five regional offices to two. One in Atlanta (east of the Mississippi River)and one in LA (west of Mississippi River). That means Chicago, New York, and Dallas are closed. With about 250 people working in each location (750 total) at an average of $100,000 each, that is a yearly savings of $75 million. Operation cost (rent, equipment, etc.) at the three locations will save another $1.8 million. Benefits for the 750 employees will save another (at $20,000 each) another $15 million.
3) Next, there is an average of three offices per state (local offices in cities across the country), if we close them, that is another $3 million in office space.
4) Next, the District Managers work out of their house and the Zone Managers (or whatever term is given to them), could be let go. They make around $150,000 a year and there are about 75 of them. Again, a savings of $11.25 million. With benefits, a total of $12.75 million in savings.
5) Next, cut around 150 jobs at the Detroit GM Headquarters. A savings of around $18 million with benefits.
6) Next, cut Buick down to two cars (Enclave and Lucerne), cut Pontiac to one (G6), cut GMC to two (Yukon and Sierra), cut Saturn to one (Vue) – and put all cars to a new umbrella called “United GM”. This will save GM billions. Also cut back on two Chevy models and two Cadillac models.
7) Next, cut advertising in December, January, February, March, April, and May (with the exception of auto show advertising for a three week period during the show and its incentives). This will save GM around $1.4 billion.
8) Sell all five planes. This will save GM $100 million in sales and another $100 million in yearly travel expenses for a total savings of $200 million dollars.
Plan Two on Fixing GM
How to save GM
1) GM needs to cut their total car models to 25 (from 60). What they could do is get rid of all Buicks expect Lucerne and Enclave; get rid of all Pontiacs except G6; get rid of all GMCs except Sierra and Yukon; get rid of all Saturns except the Vue; get rid of Saab all together; get rid of at least three Chevy models; get rid of at least two Cadillac models.
2) Get rid of half the dealerships. Chevy seems to have the best distribution so change the Chevy dealerships to Chevy, BPG, Saturn, and Cadillac
3) Close at least three of the five regional offices
4) Close all Zone offices and have employees work out of their homes
5) Get rid of 50% or more of white collar workers in the field
6) The factories will close based upon which models will be discontinued
7) Have upper management take a 35% pay cut
8) Have middle management take a 20% pay cut
9) Cut advertising from $2.3 billion per year to $750 million
10) Get rid of advertising groups and have national advertising only
11) Get rid of co-op advertising dollars
12) Get rid of all promotional advertising
13) Cut all regional and national meetings that cost more than $100,000
14) No parties for auto shows
15) Have special cash incentives for cash only purchases
16) Once the Volt battery is discovered, convert at least half the cars and trucks left after the cut to Hybrid
17) Move 1/2 the engineers to be used to discover more fuel efficient standards and more alternative fuel / hybrid cars
18) Sell all five planes and travel coach (a $100 million savings from cost of planes and a $100 million savings in yearly air cost for a total savings of $200 million).
11-30-2008 @ 10:51AM
M said...
I was never a great fan of Ronald Reagan, but I bet he wouldn't give the big three a dime?