While Bill Gross is big-time bond trader for Pacific Investment Management Co., he also has some interesting takes on the equities markets. Unfortunately, his views are fairly pessimistic.
According to Gross, the stock market can be somewhat nuanced. In fact, he compares it to a "fragile flower where price is part perception, part valuation, and part hope or lack thereof."
In his analysis, Gross takes a look at several well-known market metrics. For example, there is the "Q" ratio, which compares the stock market to the replacement costs of the net assets. If below 1.0, then stocks are cheap. Interestingly enough, the ratio is now the lowest since World War II.
Next, there is the P/E ratio. And yes, this is also at historically low levels.
So, it is time to buy up shares? Perhaps not.
Basically, Gross says that we need to account for a myriad of trends. First of all, there is a massive deleveraging of the economy. In other words, there is much less financing to boost valuations.
Another problem: expect much more regulation of the economy, which will likely slow things down.
Oh, and it's a good bet there will be higher taxes.
For the most part, Gross thinks that these trends are "transgenerational." Essentially, the US is moving away from being a financed-based economy and becoming more enmeshed in government meddling (keep in mind that 20% of bank capital is now owned by the US government). The upshot is likely to be slower growth, and in turn, muted stock valuations.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market
. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-03-2008 @ 12:51PM
Charlkes Eddy said...
Bill Gross's expertise and success as a bond slaesman goes without saying. Pimco hs thrived on bonds in the past, and would like to in the future, so one would expect a bias here. Certainly one should maintain bonds, perhaps as a more substantial part of a portfolio. But it seems improbable that some increase in government regulation will cause a major disruption in equity market. And won't "deleveraging" also impact other financial sectors as well?