General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) are going in front of Congress today to ask for $25 billion worth of taxpayer money. (It seems they won't be flying in separate private jets.) GM will announce a reopening of its UAW contract and the winding down of its Hummer, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn brands. Ford will try to sell Volvo to the Swedish government. What's lacking from both plans at this stage is enough detail about cost savings to know whether taxpayers will get their money back.
As I posted, there is a $16 billion (in cost savings) six point restructuring plan which GM could have used, but it chose a different path. The six-point plan involved closing or selling the four brands and their related dealerships. GM's plan proposes to slowly wind down these brands and keep the dealers. It has been trying to sell Saab but no takers have emerged.
Moreover, GM workers remain higher paid than workers of its Japanese competitors. For example, UAW workers make an average of $76 an hour, including the cost of retiree benefits. Toyota Motor Co. (NYSE: TM) workers cost, all in, about $18 an hour less. It is unclear how much GM plans to cut from UAW pay by reopening the contract. Absent more details, today's GM restructuring plan does not provide a clear path to profitability.
Meanwhile, Ford tried to raise between $3 billion and $5 billion by selling Volvo. But Volvo is a money loser and it appears unlikely that Ford will be able to get any money at all for dumping it -- possibly onto the Swedish government. Volvo has 18,000 employees and it lost $458 million in the third quarter as its sales declined 24%, to $2.9 billion. In short, Ford's restructuring plan amounts to taking a huge loss to get rid of a business that's losing almost $2 billion a year.
At this point, neither Ford nor GM have presented plans that provide a clear path to profitability. Such details could come out later today. If they were available, though, GM and Ford should have leaked them in advance of their Congressional testimony. If they can't get to profitability, an agreement to lend them money will end up costing taxpayers $25 billion or more every six months to keep a dying industry in intensive care.
While the auto industry has made a weak case for its $25 billion, the Federal Reserve and Treasury last week slipped by us a $600 billion plan to use taxpayer money to buy mortgage-backed securities with no explanation of why it was needed or how we would get it back.
Why is it so easy for a batch of illiquid mortgages to get 24 times more money with no scrutiny or explanation while the auto industry has to jump through hoops to get its relatively small bailout? I think GM and Ford should provide a more detailed plan to get their money and the Fed and Treasury should be relieved of their power to throw these enormous sums of taxpayer money at a problem with no clear definition, no metrics for success, and no accountability.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-02-2008 @ 10:12AM
AJ said...
There is a major error in this article:
"...UAW workers make an average of $76 an hour, including the cost of retiree benefits. Toyota Motor Co. (NYSE: TM) workers cost, all in, about $18 an hour less."
UAW workers DO NOT make $76/hour. That is simply a gross overstatement, and flat out false. At $76 per hour, each worker would be making $145,000 per year, which doesn't happen.
On the other hand, the figure you report as the hourly wage for Toyota workers is more accurate - it closely represents the hourly wage for a non-skilled worker. To compare apples to apples, the GM hourly wage for a comparable employee is about $23/hour.
I cannot argue with the fact that GM pays more per employee than Toyota - that is a fact. It is the gross misconception about the wage difference that I take issue with.
Do your homework rather than repeating false statements you may have heard on various "news" broadcasts (such as Fox News).
12-02-2008 @ 11:00AM
RJ said...
I have to disagree with you AJ. In your analysis you are only taking into account the actual hourly wages. You are completely forgetting, as most people do, all of the other benefits the employers provide is also an expense that adds to the hourly cost of an employee. By the time you add all of this up the article is probably very close to the correct average hourly rate. The UAW has done it's part to demand an incredibly ridiculous amount of benefits and retirement on top of excessive wages for most of its workers.
The UAW is a major reason that the American auto industry cannot be competitive. I know people hate to take a pay cut, but most of the American auto workers get better compensation than they are worth compared with other non-union industries. This expense is directly relayed into the cost of the vehicles which means things like quality has to suffer in order to price the vehicles competitively with the foreign makers.
12-02-2008 @ 11:12AM
AJ said...
RJ:
In my first comment I was refering to worker's hourly pay - what a worker earns per hour worked, before taxes and dues. I stand by my statement.
If you want to talk about the total employee compensation cost per hour worked (this is the per hour figure that includes ALL employee-associated costs, such as health insurance and retirement), then that's a different story. The total employee compensation costs for GM are estimated at $74/hour. For Toyota, they are approximately $48/hour. Please refer to this article (http://www.heritage.org/Research/economy/wm2135.cfm) for more information.
All I'm asking for is a fair and truthful comparison. If people are going to say that UAW employees earn $75/hour, then they also need to say that Toyota employees earn $48/hour - not the $18/hour reported in this piece.
Are UAW employees well compensated? Yes - I am not denying that. If you want to compare costs, then compare similar costs. After all, what's the point of comparing what Bobby Jean pays for staples to what Cindy Lou pays for pencils?
Apples to apples, that's all I'm saying.
12-02-2008 @ 11:51AM
RC said...
"UAW workers make an average of $76 an hour, including the cost of retiree benefits." I wish.....so does my wife who also works.
I so wish people would get there facts straight before showing what a misinformed society some people live in and believe. Maybe Peter Cohan
should do just a little research on it. I will even send him a pay stub and he can see for himself. I wonder how much he makes for mis-reporting. Try reading this. Debunking the myth of the $70-per-hour autoworker. http://www.uaw.org/auto/11_25_08auto2.cfm
Sure you might say "oh its a UAW website, but why not, you are reading this website and believing it.
12-03-2008 @ 2:49PM
Merle Davis said...
Your "weak" article appears to be filled with conjecture and questionable statements, that you expect intelligent and well-informed readers to take as fact. Where did you get your facts, and can they be verified and supported?
I guess my question is, what do you make in terms of wages, and who makes less or more? Whoever is paying you ought to take a good look at how the spend their money!
It's easy to point the finger at someone, organization, industry, but just remember, you've three fingers pointing back at you.
12-02-2008 @ 11:59AM
Jim said...
THEAUTOEXTREMIST.COM
November 26, 2008
Washington to Detroit: Drop Dead.
By Peter M. De Lorenzo
Detroit. The glee with which the Washington establishment - and every two-bit instant car “expert” who decided it was high time to weigh-in with his or her opinions - attacked Detroit and what’s left of the U.S. car industry last week was a sight to behold. Everyone from chief knucklehead Michael Moore to Neil Young (Neil Young?) got on the “Detroit Deserves to Die” bandwagon, adding to the chaos with their naively-crafted pop logic musings and “finger-snap” solutions.
It was truly pathetic.
Starting with the stunningly ill-informed members of the Senate and the House lead by that raging embarrassment Dick Shelby from Alabama, who heaped derision on Detroit and its CEOs for having the temerity to ask for a bridge loan to help them through the worst financial calamity to face America in seven decades - while he conveniently forgot to mention that he helped arrange for over $650 million in tax incentives and other prizes for Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Hyundai and Toyota to build facilities in his home state - to the gang of idiots who followed him while falling all over themselves trying to demonstrate how little they knew about the car business or about the Detroit that exists today as opposed to the Detroit they once read about in the 1990s, it was a beat down of epic proportions.
That actual facts about the U.S. automobile business and its role as an essential part of the manufacturing fabric of the country were in short supply in the rote speeches made by the representatives and senators - and except for exactly one, Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R - MI), they were totally predictable. And so was the piling on that ensued.
By the end of last week it was as if the domestic automakers were not only the scourge of the Western hemisphere but responsible for all known troubles afflicting this country at this very moment, its CEOs were idiots, we’d all be better off as a country if its founding city was just wiped off the American landscape along with the rest of the midwest, and gangs of citizens were assembling with pitchforks demanding bankruptcy for the Detroit Three. I was actually surprised that the mob mentality stopped short of demanding the heads of the CEOs from Chrysler, Ford and GM or anyone else representing Detroit on sticks - the loathing was so far off the charts and unwarranted.
It would have been difficult to comprehend all of this if had originated in any other city besides Washington, D.C., After all, this is a town whose very existence is based on cronyism, perks, earmarks, lobbyists and professional self absorption. But even that pales in comparison to the real pro sport in Washington, which is The Blame Game. The fact that these politicians made hay on the whole corporate jet angle was laughable, especially since one of their esteemed colleagues – Nancy Pelosi – caused a royal stink when she became Speaker of the House by demanding a bigger government plane so that she was able to fly non-stop back to California. That many of these politicians eagerly accept rides on corporate jets from various contributors and lobbyists was a story that was missing in the gathering chaos of the lynch mob mentality aimed at the Detroit Three CEOs, as if they were the only heads of corporations on earth who use corporate planes. And the establishment media, ever in search of a fifteen-second sound bite, found what they were looking for and dutifully reported that angle as the meat of the story.
Lost in all of this, of course, was the fact that the backbone of the U.S. manufacturing sector was on the ropes because of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. But nonetheless, the real issues at hand were instead drowned out by the verbal jabs and cackles about corporate jets, and the Detroit Three CEOs were sent packing, but not before they were admonished like little school boys and told to bring back a real business plan for their $25 billion, and to come back “better prepared” as President-elect Barack Obama chimed-in on Monday.
Oh really?
This after Citigroup, which only a month ago received $25 billion, was blessed with another $20 billion this past Sunday evening, and, as part of the plan, Treasury and the FDIC will guarantee against the "possibility of unusually large losses" on up to $306 billion of risky loans and securities backed by commercial and residential mortgages.
What, no hat-in-hand journey to Washington for Citigroup CEO Vikram S. Pandit so he could receive a good old-fashioned ass-whipping for bad management decisions, marketing risky financial instruments, failing to anticipate dramatic shifts in the market and piss-poor planning in general on live television?
No stumblebum senators and congressman tripping all over themselves to demonstrate their complete lack of understanding of the nation’s financial system or to criticize the fact that Pandit used the corporate jet to fly down to Washington?
No recriminations for Robert Rubin - the most prominent member of the Citigroup's board of directors and a former treasury secretary - who was one of the chief architects of the bank’s risky investment strategy, and who pulled down $62.2 million between 2004 and 2007?
And what about the go-along-to-get-along dimwits on the Citigroup board? The gang that J. Richard Findlay, head of the Centre for Corporate & Public Governance, described for the New York Post thusly: "Citigroup's board of directors increasingly resembles a first-class sleeping car on a train wreck that just keeps happening. Almost whatever it does, it is too slow and too late. It can take months for Citigroup's directors to clue into what others in the real world have known for some time."
And why does Citigroup merit bailing out again with no explanation whatsoever to the American taxpayers other than President Bush saying, "We have made these kind of decisions in the past. We made one last night. And if need be we will make these kind of decisions to safeguard our financial system in the future."
Oh really?
What’s going on is the activation of a New American Double Standard, one that goes something like this:
Washington to Detroit: Drop Dead.
Washington to Wall Street: Who do we make the check out to again?
Thanks to our representatives in Washington, an industry that powered this great nation into the future, which basically created a viable American middle class, and which created the Arsenal of Democracy so that the nation could be properly equipped to win WWII, has all of a sudden become a national punchline and a burden to the rest of the country.
An industry that’s responsible either directly or indirectly for one out of every ten jobs in the nation, an industry that’s inexorably linked with the manufacturing base of this nation and whose failure would send this nation’s economy reeling, was basically sent packing in search of a “plan” while Wall Street and the banking system was given carte blanche just for showing up.
How do we know that Citigroup won’t crash in a few more months and need even more money? And how will they handle their “emergency” need by then in the new “enlightened” Obama Presidency? By email?
What’s wrong with this picture?
Why is it politically more expedient to trash Detroit and the entire domestic automobile industry than it is to shine a harsh light on the glorified pyramid scheme that propelled Wall Street and the banking system to new heights – and now to horrific lows – while screwing over millions of Americans in the process?
The fact that President-elect Obama added to the criticism of the Detroit Three CEOs by echoing the same misinformation spewed by the senators and congressmen last week in Washington was not exactly an uplifting development either.
"We can't just write a blank check to the auto industry. Taxpayers can't be expected to pony up more money for an auto industry that has been resistant to change. I was surprised that they did not have a better thought-out proposal when they arrived in Congress," Obama said on Monday. "Congress did the right thing which is to say, 'You guys need to come up with a plan and come back before you're getting any taxpayer money.'"
Oh really?
But we – as American taxpayers - can expect to keep writing blank checks to mismanaged banks and failed Wall Street conglomerates, and be expected to “pony up” more money to an industry that’s resistant to change, with no thought-out proposals of any kind and no real “plan” in sight? How does that work, exactly, Mr. President-elect?
As if to back-pedal a bit, Obama added that, "We can't allow the auto industry simply to vanish. We've got to make sure that it is there and that the workers and suppliers and businesses that rely on the auto industry stay in business."
Oh really?
Then why is it - Mr. President-elect - that you’re endorsing the miserable performance put on by our so-called leaders in Washington last week? Why is it that you’re regurgitating the same tired inaccuracies about Detroit that we were subjected to for two days last week? Do your homework, Mr. Obama. Stop listening to the media or the sycophants you’ve already assembled and dig deeper into this Detroit “thing” before you start sounding like all the rest of the less than gifted in Washington.
Memo to the old and new Washington establishment:
A large number of American citizens are painfully aware of the hypocritical double-speak that’s currently festering in the halls of Congress and on the Senate floor.
A large number of Americans are tired of the now-tedious stereotypes and flat-out untruths being bandied about in Washington about an industry that’s vital to the long-term health and well being of the nation, an industry that actually creates and builds tangible hard goods, an industry that devotes $12 billion a year in advanced technical research that benefits the entire nation, an industry that is a fundamental part of the American industrial fabric, and an industry that employs millions of Americans all across this nation.
A large number of American citizens are tired of this New American Double Standard, where the financial well being of millions is being held hostage and being put at risk for the benefit of a few – with no explanation, no “plan” and no accountability whatsoever.
Detroit may be Washington’s whipping boy du jour, and our esteemed representatives may want to continue on with their witch hunt – what’s next, will they demand that the Detroit CEOs bring their college transcripts with them next time? – but they won’t be fooling anyone.
It’s not about what’s good for the rest of the country in Washington. It’s not about nurturing the American fabric, or protecting the foundation of our manufacturing base, or taking care of a productive national industry that creates real American jobs, or keeping the nation as a vital player in the global economy.
No, not even close as a matter of fact.
In Washington it’s about whoever is greasing the skids or blowing in a Senator’s or congress person’s ear just right. And the Motor City finds itself on the outside looking in.
Detroit might as well start writing its own obituary right now, because even if some sort of financial bridge loan package is grudgingly bequeathed, the strings and built-in entanglements are likely to choke the life out of the U.S. auto industry once and for all.
Thanks for listening.
12-02-2008 @ 3:11PM
Paul said...
Jim, you are on the money. By the way I have never read anything stating that the money being thrown about to the financial sector as actually being a "loan". Please someone tell me it ain't so!
12-03-2008 @ 9:10AM
RJ said...
AJ:
I think you have miss read what the article says about wages, as it is comparing the same numbers. What it says is "Toyota Motor Co. (NYSE: TM) workers cost, all in, about $18 an hour LESS." It does not say that Toyota employees are making $18/hour. It says total compensation is $18/hour LESS, so that would be $76-$18 = $58/hour, for Toyota employees.
In your example with the numbers you have cited, makes the difference look even worse with Toyota making $26/hour LESS than GM workers.
12-03-2008 @ 10:52AM
Jeff said...
I much agree with your comments on the vastly different approach of congress in literally throwing hundreds of billions of dollars, now trillions in fact, into Wall Steet sinkholes with no questions, no oversight, no accountability, but the tiny fraction of that amount that could be loaned to the domestic auto industry is loaded with hand-wringing and hoops for them to jump through. The auto loans, however, are a different story from the Wall Steet bail-outs, and yet are closely related in that failure to give these small loans could completly undermine the trillions spent already.
There is no question that the US government will have money involved with the US auto industry this year and next, one way or the other, through intelligent action, or head-in-the sand inaction. The only question is will it be a $34 billion loan that is very likely to be paid back with interest in a few years, or whether it is a loss of $150 billion in the first year alone from lost tax revenues and other first tier effects of bankruptcy, let alone increasing bank risks and other domino effects into the future that could again run into trillions of dollars in bank bailouts and lost taxes due to new and increased bank failures, home foreclosures, and other ripple effects.
On top of everything else, allowing the domestic auto industry to collapse would very likely bring on the US and worldwide depression that the trillions in bank bail-outs was supposed to avoid, so that the trillions spent on Wall Street would be a certain complete waste. If "let it all collapse and sort itself out" is the congress mantra, we should have done this approach from day one just the same with the banks as well. Depression will result from either the bank collapes or the hundreds of times cheaper, and very likely free if paid back, auto loans either way. Likewise, if we spent trillions to try to prevent a depression by keeping Wall Street afloat, it would be the extreme height of government foolishness to make all of that money a certain waste by straining at the gnat of these relatively small loans and swallowing the camel of a new great depression with even more Wall Steet failures following in its wake.
12-04-2008 @ 9:50AM
charles said...
If the auto co ,fails,washington will say ,we should of gave them the money.