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GM and Ford ready weak pitches for taxpayer bucks

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) are going in front of Congress today to ask for $25 billion worth of taxpayer money. (It seems they won't be flying in separate private jets.) GM will announce a reopening of its UAW contract and the winding down of its Hummer, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn brands. Ford will try to sell Volvo to the Swedish government. What's lacking from both plans at this stage is enough detail about cost savings to know whether taxpayers will get their money back.

As I posted, there is a $16 billion (in cost savings) six point restructuring plan which GM could have used, but it chose a different path. The six-point plan involved closing or selling the four brands and their related dealerships. GM's plan proposes to slowly wind down these brands and keep the dealers. It has been trying to sell Saab but no takers have emerged.

Moreover, GM workers remain higher paid than workers of its Japanese competitors. For example, UAW workers make an average of $76 an hour, including the cost of retiree benefits. Toyota Motor Co. (NYSE: TM) workers cost, all in, about $18 an hour less. It is unclear how much GM plans to cut from UAW pay by reopening the contract. Absent more details, today's GM restructuring plan does not provide a clear path to profitability.

Meanwhile, Ford tried to raise between $3 billion and $5 billion by selling Volvo. But Volvo is a money loser and it appears unlikely that Ford will be able to get any money at all for dumping it -- possibly onto the Swedish government. Volvo has 18,000 employees and it lost $458 million in the third quarter as its sales declined 24%, to $2.9 billion. In short, Ford's restructuring plan amounts to taking a huge loss to get rid of a business that's losing almost $2 billion a year.

At this point, neither Ford nor GM have presented plans that provide a clear path to profitability. Such details could come out later today. If they were available, though, GM and Ford should have leaked them in advance of their Congressional testimony. If they can't get to profitability, an agreement to lend them money will end up costing taxpayers $25 billion or more every six months to keep a dying industry in intensive care.

While the auto industry has made a weak case for its $25 billion, the Federal Reserve and Treasury last week slipped by us a $600 billion plan to use taxpayer money to buy mortgage-backed securities with no explanation of why it was needed or how we would get it back.

Why is it so easy for a batch of illiquid mortgages to get 24 times more money with no scrutiny or explanation while the auto industry has to jump through hoops to get its relatively small bailout? I think GM and Ford should provide a more detailed plan to get their money and the Fed and Treasury should be relieved of their power to throw these enormous sums of taxpayer money at a problem with no clear definition, no metrics for success, and no accountability.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 04:47 AM

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