History is repeating itself, at least in the oil market. Once again, a miscalculation by OPEC -- probably motivated by greed or rational self interest carried to its logical (but foolish) extension -- has resulted in almost the same set of market conditions that resulted when OPEC made the same mistake in 1990-1991.
Then, following the Persian Gulf War in 1990, OPEC increased production only grudgingly, in an attempt to hang onto sky-high oil prices of about $55-60 per barrel. (Or about $120 in today's dollars.) The result? A U.S. recession and a consequent collapse in oil demand, and in oil's price: oil first fell below $40, then $30 on its way to trading below $13 per barrel in 1998. Thirteen dollars a barrel in nineteen ninety-eight.
Those who fail to learn from history...
Fast forward to 2007. OPEC has an opportunity to at least slow, if not reverse the steady rise in oil prices, which were then testing $90. However, despite the fact that oil shocks have preceded every U.S. recession since 1972, except the post-September 11, 2001 recession, OPEC does nothing.
In fact, as the price of oil continued to spiral to dizzier and dizzier heights, OPEC meetings served as information dissemination opportunities to blame the rising price on anything but a lack of increased OPEC production: the weak dollar, geopolitical concerns, investors who view oil as a performing asset, and so on. In fact, what OPEC was doing during this phase of the oil cycle was, yet again, testing the limits of the market: i.e., to determine the maximum price the market could bear, in order to maximize revenue for oil-producing nations. Or, in other words, OPEC members were repeating the mistakes of 1990-1991.
And the results of that misguided policy have been the same, basically. With oil at/near $100 in late 2007 -- the world's third oil shock -- the U.S. economy fell into a recession, and the global economy slowed. The financial crisis later plunged the global economy into a full-fledged recession.
However, the above is not to say that high-risk U.S. mortgages, toxic mortgage-backed securities, and flawed U.S. public policies (including energy policy) have not contributed to the recession: they have, and the recession will be deeper and longer, as a result of those policy errors.
Nevertheless, OPEC, by focusing on short-term national revenue and failing to increase production, has derailed the U.S. economy and driven it into a recession every bit as much as the bursting of the housing bubble and onset of the financial crisis have.
As a result, oil demand -- and oil's price -- will now collapse to levels no one can predict. Oil Tuesday closed down $2.32 to $47.31 per barrel.
In other words, by focusing on short-term profits, the cartel has ruined its long-term revenue structure, and much else besides. OPEC, once again, has killed the goose that lays the golden egg.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
12-02-2008 @ 6:15PM
David R. said...
Nice post. Keep up the good work.
12-02-2008 @ 6:33PM
Michael R. said...
First of all a little less than 20 years ago India and China weren't as developed. OPEC did try to raise output, but there was little capacity to raise. This energy crisis is NOT over and you are fooling yourself if you think cheap oil is back. A recession that's been on for a year has approx. 6-8 months left while in the meantime China and India are already on their way back......all the while India has a $2500 car for sale to the masses. By the way, the economy was handling the rise in oil prices, it's our thirst for ridiculously priced homes it can't handle along with alot of greed! This crisis on our economy was not created by high oil prices.
12-02-2008 @ 6:49PM
Bob L said...
Don't kid yourself, our economy has been built on cheap oil, everything from large SUVs to ever larger homes in suburbs far away from jobs. If we don't start developing alternative fuels, more fuel efficient autos and smaller energy efficient homes we will be at the mercy of OPEC for a long time to come. America has the ability to do it, unfortunately we wait until there is a crisis to act.
12-02-2008 @ 6:59PM
jd said...
Now is the time to get our own crude industry rolling, get coal gasification nailed down and work on sensible alternatives, while these slugs are out of the oil gouging business for a while! Heed the opportunity now!!! How many times do we have to go through these Opec assisted recessions? Energy independence!! Drill now, drill often...!
12-02-2008 @ 7:07PM
bostonbutt said...
mikey is wrong, probably not the first time either with stupid commments like he made. the economy can not & was not handling escalating prices, just look at the global fallout, it speaks for itself. domestic & global employers froze hiring, started buying out employees "again" while consumption was slowing, then declining. so now you have what you have, a global mess. this isn't even economics 101, this is grade school. another firm lesson in greed, domestic & global. you also saw exactly how our arab friends viewed not only the USA but the world, they don't care but foolishly lost view the boom-a-rang comes back home. the result, just as the famous japanese admiral stated "my fear is we have awakened a sleeping giant (USA)" and now record drilling/refining, etc...is in place. hope you boys on the dunes enjoyed your prior lifestyle cuz it aint going to last. you pooped on yourself in your self-serving fashion, you infidels
12-02-2008 @ 7:12PM
Mike H. said...
Mr. Lazzaro......, you hit RIGHT on the head!! Thank you for a good one!!
12-02-2008 @ 7:18PM
rob said...
you are a idiot. for 9 years oil has increased slowly out of control. you think oil prices and gas prices doesnt have long term effect on people ? well when it finally got to almost $150 a barrell. and u was paying $4 a gallon for gas...it was the tipping point for the economy. its NOT that people paid too much for the homes... its a combination of high priced houses, and high priced gas.. if gas was $1.15 like it really should have been all along. i really doubt half of these forclosures would have happened..the bottom line is.. our government failed us. they have the power to control our lives as well as the economy..EVERYONE knew there was alot of underhanded lending going on in the housing market. people who couldnt afford loans they received. mostly because when they do a income to debt ration.. on paper things look ok.. but figure in 5 to $600 a month for gas. rising cost of food products because shippers have to pay more because truckers pay more for deisel.. its a roller coaster effect that anyway you look at it. our entire economy colapsed because of high oil prices.. im not the smartest guy in the world. but look at the big picture. why is it so expensive to eat out?. why is a extra value meal at mcdonalds $5 when back in the 90s it was $3 ? the product they buy cost more..why ? they had to pay employees more. why? they need more to drive to work.. and to eat out and to pay for that new overpriced house they bought.. we as consumers shoudnt have overpaid for these homes... but its because of that big raise they got.. not realizing inflation is driven by oil prices... oil oil oil is why we are in a recession. and if we dont do whatever it takes to keep oil prices down, our economy WILL collapse and we will head into a depression.. thers NOWAYYYYYYY to avoid it.. people need to drive less. spend spend spend.. but buy online.. drive to the nearest stores. get what u need when you get there. and limit where we go and only go when we REALLY need to.. oil prices will continue to fall and settle in the $20 range where it should be and should have never got over $30.. blame yourself and people you see for driving all over.. buying SUVs i was guilty myself i bought a brand new Expedition in 03.. but had i known our governement wouldnt have acted and done something to lower fuel prices i would have got a small car..we ALL fell into a trap and our governement failed us in soooooo many ways..pass the word around. people need to spend spend spend. but try to buy as little gas as possible. only make trips neccesay to survive. but buy anything they can afford.. people need to realize. EVERYTHING is on sale right now.. manufactureres are slowly going out of business because we are afraid to spend.. buy american.. if its made in america. BUY IT if its something you need.. theres enough american made products out there we can win the war against the economy and opec if we keep things simple... anyway.. im not saying never buy china made products. but if theres a small difference between the price of foriegn products and american made. BUY american. our economy here will eventually rebound.. and keep China from catching back up and using more and more oil that contributed to the oil price gouging thats went on far too long... now we know our governement is more concerned with controlling our lives by making up smoing bans, seat belt laws.. all these insignifgant laws that do not help our economy in anyway shape form or fashion. when they could be using there time figuring out a way to control opec, and companies who move there factories from the us to other countries.. can i say do away with the free trade agreement ? thats a start.... thank the democrats for that.. i could go on and on ..i have many other good points and observations to make...but something im sure about........im 100% right
12-02-2008 @ 7:19PM
kingfish said...
gotta go along with the "butt man" boston butt. the boys in allah land fueled greed & the screwed the pooch that came back home. sand & oil mix like $140 barrel of oil, it don't work. the international community is now suffering & they have far less crude to export. the ButtMan called it right. seems like another elementary lesson my good watson !
12-02-2008 @ 7:29PM
blood booggar said...
sounds like the boys having a shootout at the OK corral. and the winner is..........the Buttman, bostonbutt. seems logical to me
12-02-2008 @ 8:38PM
JCH said...
This has to be the most insipid oil post yet.
Why would anybody drill a hole for a country that will pay a bundle for bottled water and believes the world owes it cheap oil.
Walk. It's all you deserve.
12-02-2008 @ 9:01PM
Jessy Scholl said...
Michael at post 2 is wrong on many fronts. Since some of them were covered, let me cover just one. China and India are not on their way back. For one, China is deeply in debt due to that party that they held last summer. Heck, they likely spent as much money on the Opening Ceremony as Mexico did on the entire 1968 games in Mexico City including security. In addition, the people of China are just starting to rebel over horrible working conditions to the point that the government is starting to shut down uncompliant factories. As for India, their $2,500 car from Tata Motors smells much more like the Yugo to me. Yes we likely have 6-8 more months in this recession, but economic recovery will likely be due to our jobs returning from Asia including China and India. When that day arrives, it will be a glorious reunion.
12-02-2008 @ 9:58PM
Pan_theFrog said...
Are you so sure that disrupting the worlds economy is not the goal?
Look at it this way, for several years oil producing countries make huge profits, and then the economies go bang, and they spend a year or so making little profit followed by several years of making average profit.
Seems like in the end they come out ahead, and manage to keep the world to busy to get busy with that peace and harmony thing.
12-02-2008 @ 10:25PM
jonmetcalf said...
Pan... you nailed it.
Why should they care about helping us?
They want to destroy us from the inside out.
No guns, no bombs, no lost lives. Just a financial crisis every couple decades.
And we never learn.....
12-02-2008 @ 11:39PM
Bill said...
Counterpoint: Skyrocketing oil prices were driven by the free market, namely energy speculation by financial institutions like AIG and Merrill Lynch. These guys earned 100's of millions in bonuses for hording oil, until.....well you know the rest of the story. Now, we need to bail them out of this mess because they invested our retirement nest egg. This was such a successful sell to Congress that the banks, credit card companies and automakers want a piece of the action too. Control speculation, you control irresponsible investment, and oil prices will be relatively constant. The radical drop in oil prices was due to supply and demand without the institutional speculators.
12-03-2008 @ 1:03AM
sgentilejr said...
It is so sad indeed that so many Americans and even the writter of the article above are oh so totally ignorant (ignorant means lack of knowledge) when it comes to how oil prices are set and by who. OPEC and the oil companies do not set the price of oil. Oil is a comodity and it (oil) is "traded" on the comodity exchanges. The buyers of comodity contracts (oil contracts) set the price by bidding contract prices higher or lower the same exact way stock prices move up or down. The price has absolutely nothing to do with OPEC. Visit nymex.com and learn.
12-03-2008 @ 2:33AM
FREE OIL said...
OIL IS FREE....IT GUSHES NATURALY OUT OF THE GROUND IN MANY PLACES....IN KUWAIT....EACH WELL NATURALY MILLIONS OF GALLONS/DAY COME OUT OF THE WELLS AT HIGH PREASURE....IT IS ONLY WORTH ABOUT $20/BARRELL IN A FREE MARKET....FREE THE MARKET...ARREST ALL OPEC MEMBERS FOR MARKET MANIPULATION
12-03-2008 @ 2:35AM
Ulpian said...
Oil prices were high because of high demand. Now that the economy has tanked demand is down, but oil is still expensive by historical standards. If the economy were to pick up so would the price of oil, for there is a supply shortage - and then the economy would crash again of course.
12-03-2008 @ 8:05AM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
If You're Looking For A BAD GUY, OPEC Is Not It. If I Read Your Post Right, The Entire Credit Crunch, And Mortgage Debacle, Could Have Been Solved By Opec Artifically Holding Up Prices.
SAUDI ARABIA Supports A Market Driven Price, And Has ALWAYS Balanced Output To Market Conditions, AS BEST IT CAN, And Has Agreed To Cut Backs, As Part Of It's Deal, To Keep Unity With OPEC Members, But Others, Are Not That Interested In Participating, And Seem To Believe ANOUNCED CUT BACKS Are Enough To Raise Prices. A Lower Price Has Benefits To A Slow Economic Condition, And Will Eventually Raise Prices, But It Will Be Other Producers Job, To Also Do Their Part. The Market Is Winning.
EMIL J KOVACH JR
12-03-2008 @ 8:24AM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
Let's Get REAL HERE, For A While. Low Gas Prices SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT On Alternative Energy Development,IF the World Is Truly Interested In Finding Another Way,
If The USA Was Truly Interested In "Freedom" From Crude Oil Dependance--Wind, Gas, Etc, Would Continue On A VERY FAST PACE, To Overcome This
So Called "Dependance" But As Crude Oil Drops, As Does Gas, It Just--Goes Away For a While. So The Reality Is It's All About The Price, And Cheap Fuel Will Win Out, BUT IT SHOUDN'T, The World Has Not decided It Really Wants To Make That Comittment, To All these Alternatives--IF YOU BELIEVE Alternative Energy Is the Answer, Every 2.00 You Are Now Saving, Per Gallon. Should Be Donated To A Company Interested In Alternative Fuels, So What's Stopping You? SAUDI ARABIA's Policy Of A MARKET DRIVEN PRICE, Has Returned OVER 300 Billion Dollars To American Consumers Pockets, To Spend--As They Wish, What Have You Done?
EMIL J KOVACH JR
12-03-2008 @ 9:44AM
Colin Smith said...
The credit crunch was the result of a combination of factors, with foolish lending certainly being up there. However, the trigger for the present debacle was the realization that oil supply could not meet increasing demand at an affordable price. People could not afford loan repayments and the burgeoning energy prices together - something had to give. The something was confidence and then the realization that the manic increase in world commodity consumption was unsustainable with oil production at its limits.
I believe that the old economic and social paradigm is now ended. Whether governments and peoples realize it is another matter. I see economic and social collapse without end.