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Is this the best time to commit new money to stocks?

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What's one reason for not jumping back in the market at this juncture?

Well, one could certainly cite end-of-the-year tax loss selling, which typically weighs on the market. Or the battle for Dow 8,000 between institutional bulls and bears. Or the fact that the Dow's path of least resistance, from a technical standpoint, remains down. (That's a major reason why the Dow drops so quickly: all that's required is a hedge fund manager to sneeze and the Dow drops 300 points, or so it seems.)

All of the above are valid reasons to remain on the sidelines.

Is Washington planning big changes?

But perhaps the best reason to not deploy new capital is the new era itself. The United States is preparing for a new presidential administration and one gets the sense that there could be a series of seismic shifts up ahead -- shifts that will affect money, markets, investing, and business trends.

It's true that after the U.S. government's allocation, via loans, loan guarantees, or investments, of about $8.2 trillion for the financial system, it's hard to picture shifts up ahead that could be as landscape-altering as those undertaken in the past year. But that could very well be the case nevertheless.

Those hoping for small change are likely to be disappointed. On January 20, President-elect Obama becomes President Obama and he is big change. U.S. Senator and now Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton, D-New York, was small change, and we saw how the electorate responded to her candidacy. Voters were so adamant for economic change (and other changes) after the United States' decade of descent that they not only blamed the Republican Party, they rejected anyone with even a hint of being a part of the economic policy mistakes, including Clinton.


Hence big change is now in a rare and unfamiliar place, in control of the agenda. Therefore, look for Obama to announce several 'eye-openers' when his administration submits its recommended fiscal 2010 U.S. government budget -- changes that are likely to produce an economic shockwave or two, both inside the beltway in Washington, and in boardrooms.

What are the sectors likely to be affected? Well, several, big-ticket defense contracts could be affected. Pharmaceutical regulation may be another targeted area, with the goal of reducing the cost of both prescriptions and over-the-counter drugs, perhaps in exchange for research-oriented tax credits for pharmaceutical companies. One-million-dollar annual salaries for physicians also may appear to be problematic for the new goal of universal heath care and lower health care costs. Further, there may also be a shift in federal dollars from payments to hospitals, to payments to lower-overhead community health care clinics that can provide better and less-costly care for the poor and working poor, among other changes.

Fiscal Policy Analysis: From an economic fundamentals standpoint, a strong case can be made to stand aside, universally. Or, as the immortal Larry King of CNN would put, "Economically, it ain't exactly a happenin' time for the United States, right now." Further, certainly from a prospective public policy standpoint, it would make sense to stand aside and await at least for President-elect Obama's inaugural address on January 20, 2009, and preferably wait until his state of the union speech shortly after that in February. Keep in mind that Hillary Clinton was small change. Barack Obama is big change.

Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the U.S. presidency and the U.S. economy.

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Last updated: July 04, 2009: 05:24 AM

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