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Job cuts up 148% as the downward cycle deepens

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The recession, which officially began a year ago, is accelerating the pace of job loss. Since I began to notice the collapse of subprime back in the fall of 2006, watching the economy implode has been like a huge highway pileup in slow motion. And that crash is starting to create big economic injuries in the job market.

How so? Firing announcements rose 148% in November 2008 to 181,671 -- the most since January 2002 -- from 73,140 in November 2007. So far in 2008, the number of cuts has spiked 46% to 1,057,645, surpassing 1 million for the first time since 2005. And many of these cuts have come from financial services (91,356), computer and electronics (15,350), and retailing (11,073).

Having lived through two credit contractions, I could see this coming from miles away. But it happened far more slowly than I thought it would. And I did not foresee how the bad mortgages would cause a global financial crisis. But they have and here's how: $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages were added to packages of complex securities, including $13 trillion of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).

Financial institutions borrowed huge amounts -- $32 for every $1 of their $340 billion in capital -- to buy this toxic waste. Banks have taken about $660 billion in write-offs as they try to account for how much they overpaid for that toxic waste. But they can't raise enough capital to offset the losses. So they can't lend money.

And in an economy that depends on consumers for 70% of its growth, the absence of borrowing means consumers can't buy stuff. That lack of demand leads to production cuts, closing plants, and layoffs of the people who work there. And those laid off workers have even less money to buy stuff and are unable to borrow to make up the difference.

It's ugly but predictable. And the vicious downward cycle will continue spiking job cut numbers until supply and demand line up. That could take a long time.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 10:38 AM

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