If executives from General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and Chrysler can make it from Detroit to Washington in their hybrid vehicles by tomorrow, they'll plead for $34 billion -- up $9 billion from two weeks ago. You should not give them what they want. Instead, I recommend you let GM and Chrysler merge -- if you can convince Nissan CEO, Carlos Ghosn, to run the combined company. Ford will be fine on its own -- you should grant it the line of credit it requests.
A few weeks ago, I proposed a six step restructuring plan that would save $16 billion and help a combined GM and Chrysler to survive. To put that plan into effect, there is no question that the managers of GM and Chrysler must be replaced by an auto executive with a track record for turning around an ailing competitor. That's what Ghosn did when he took over Nissan after it merged with Renault in 1999, where he was a VP. Ghosn won many small victories against an entrenched Nissan bureaucracy to revive the Japanese automaker. Ghosn is just what GM/Chrysler needs.
Make no mistake, this is not an industry to which it makes economic sense to lend money. Bankers need to get repaid from the cash flow that a business generates either from operations or by selling assets. With sales plunging -- GM's fell 41.3%, Ford's tumbled 30.5%, and Chrysler's crashed 47.1% -- there is no operating profit likely here. And demand for purchasing their assets -- such as GM's Saab or Ford's Volvo -- appears to be weak.
Nevertheless, I think you should consider Ford's proposal more seriously than the ones from GM and Chrysler. Ford wants a $9 billion line of credit. This would give Ford the option of drawing on the money which it does not plan to do. Ford seems to have the cash needed to get to profitability by 2011. A line of credit is risky because there is a chance that Ford will draw down the money if its projections prove overly optimistic. But Ford seems to have managed its business more conservatively and thanks to the push from its executive Chairman Bill Ford, it is further along in fuel efficient vehicles.
As for GM and Chrysler, the first thing is to replace their managers since neither CEO has accomplished much beyond driving the companies into a ditch and trying to scare you into giving them money without proposing a credible path to profitability. GM's demand for $4 billion and Chrysler's bid for $7 billion to enable them to survive December indicate just how badly their respective CEOs have managed these companies.
A CEO such as Ghosn could merge GM and Chrysler and move aggressively to cut unprofitable product lines and dealerships. He could also negotiate a labor contract that would set wages at a level competitive with Japanese auto manufacturers. Ghosn would be a better steward of taxpayer's money than the incumbent CEOs and he has the best chance of making a combined GM/Chrysler into a viable competitor.
Bottom Line: You should turn down the request from GM and Chrysler until a new CEO with the needed skills has been lined up to take over the merged company. And you should grant Ford its request for a line of credit.
The Big Three is dead. Long live the Big Two.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
12-03-2008 @ 9:27AM
BHarrison said...
Two out of three might be optimistic under the prevailing economic conditions. The only way to restore "faith, confidence, and INTEGRITY" in the markets and corporations is by replacing the CEOs who oversaw the FAILED MANAGEMENT of these corporations (allof 'em), by indicting and prosecuting those who over saw the orchestration of the pyramid and Ponzi schemes that caused so much FRAUD.
It was Congress' FAILURE to provide reasonable and necessary "oversight and regulations" of our economic markets that ENABLED these unethical and corrupt CEOs to create the FRAUDS that caused this massive economic failure throughout our nation and the global economy.
There were a few CEOs who were intelligent enough and who had the courage and integrity to not become involved in the subprime mortgages and the derivatives. The other "guilty" CEOs have no legitimate basis for what they did other than just plain simple greed . . . they used the "volume of business" to "justify" their exorbitant salaries and other compensations; it was all a "shell game".
Why haven't these CEOs been indicted yet?
As for the BIG 3, shouldn't these CEOs be required to repay their TENS and HUNDREDS of MILLIONS in "salaries and compensations" if they did not perform commensurate with what they swere bing paid to do and accomplish???
. . . and this is the "last 'wake up call'" for the UAW to adjust their wages to copeititive levels . . . they won't do that though; and they will have to be dismantled to reorganize the remaining BIG 2.
12-03-2008 @ 11:38AM
Arthur said...
Carlos Ghosn WOULD be a perfect choice for CEO, except he doesn't prefer mergers. Experience has shown him that mergers don't work out.
What he DOES prefer is a cross-shareholding arrangement of the kind that brought Renault and Nissan together. It offers the advantages of a merger without the headaches.
12-03-2008 @ 12:18PM
Chris Tutor said...
Perhaps another photo would have been a better choice. That's a lot full of Mazda SUVs. Ford does still own a small part of the company, but wouldn't a lot of unsold Ford SUVs be more appropriate?
12-03-2008 @ 12:36PM
Douglas said...
Why dont GM just go to the bank to get money? The government gave the banks all the money they need without each of them going infront of congress with a plan!
12-03-2008 @ 1:31PM
Iridium said...
What I find funny about this whole situation is that GM still sold the most cars out of any company in the world this past month. Far more than many companies sold in the boom time.
If you sell the most cars in the world by a large margin, yet are on the brink of bankrupcy, what does that say?
It says that the company is actually too big to be kept alive.
GM needs to fail because it is too big to ever be able to run for profit. It is too big, too bloated, and too entrenched in operations that do not work.
12-03-2008 @ 1:46PM
Pat said...
FINALLY
Finally, Mr. Cohan you have siad it !. That is replace the managers, a plural.
What most of you don't know is that these companies have become fiefdoms, a playground to favor your own Apple Plolishers.
A CEP appoints senior mangers, most of whom he has known for life and are "team players".
These Senior mangers in turn reach down and bring up their own Pets...NEVER MIND PERFORMANCE RECORDS.
Two decades ago I worked for one of these Domestics. When I had a heart to heart with a senior manger about my frustrations of not advancing but being by passed by people stupider than I, he finally said..."Pat, you cannot quote me on this, but good people leave this Company early ". There is no salvation for you here!"
How prophetic!
So look at the mangers below the second tier of managers, line them up, if performance is average, FIRE 'EM !
We need mangers who ask for nothing else other than PERFORMANCE.
The current crop of mangers here make their decisions based on " If I do this, will I be criticized?" basis only.DUMP THEM NOW !
12-03-2008 @ 2:09PM
James Cotter said...
If my memory serves me right Chrysler was not too long ago saved from going bankrupt. Then shortly there after was bot by an equity firm that now owns it. In other words they have been "bailed" out twice and although I hate to see any American company go bust the question remains, "how often should a company like Chrysler be "saved" ? Maybe a merger with GM is the answer and some changes in union contracts.
12-03-2008 @ 2:35PM
Allen said...
A top Chrysler executive warned Wednesday that a carmaker collapse could send the economy spiraling into a depression (Jim Press, vice chairman)
Really? Chrysler has been an irrelevant non-player in the automobile market since before they were acquired by Daimler, which was their last hope for salvation. The present owner, Cerberus, is only seeking to recover its investment from the taxpayers, as their original plan to liquidate or sell Chrysler failed due to the down-turn in credit markets.
The disappearance of Chrysler would have minimal impact on the economy and would certainly not trigger a depression! Actually, it would probably have less economic impact than the World Series ending in four games.
12-03-2008 @ 3:09PM
Bob Alexander said...
Jim Press you are an idiot and good old boy. Look around, we are already in a depression. Your cars have depression written all over it. No more job justification. You losers are going down.
12-03-2008 @ 4:50PM
SanbornBob said...
ONE important item has to be brought up- the use of the apprentice system- why should auto workers that sweep the floors be called engineers and get $72. an hr in wages and benifits- Lets face it- kids out of HS can do it for $6. Large companies should be able to hire 10% of its work force as apprentices. Paying higher saleries to those whose work is crucial to the product. Lets face it I don`t like the workmanship on american cars. To many repairs after the warranty is up. Give us lower prices, better cars and a 10 yr warranty or 100,000 miles and we will buy or else forget it. Who cares if you go under- GM workers make 3 times the money I made- feel sorry for you- hell no- its time to change your ways. Lets say- its now time you paid your dues to the public.
12-03-2008 @ 5:02PM
Ken Lasseigne said...
The Main Problem Is People Are not buying,So if we bailout The Big Three, What will happen in Six Or So. If there not selling, There Product, will they need another 34b?
12-03-2008 @ 6:29PM
bob said...
let them all die The unions and mang did it to themselves
12-03-2008 @ 6:49PM
MJ said...
Ghosn ,you must kidding. Have you looked at where Nissan is in relation to the Big Three in what there sells have dipped over the last 6-months?
Nissan's quality is under fire as we speak, Ghosn took short cuts in Manufacturing and it has come back to bit them,much like the Big Three have for years.
He is terrible choice,
Chrysler isn't a "car-company" anymore,being run by investors,to build up and then sell,that is what Cerebus does! GM and Ford should survive,but replace there CEO's and management teams---but not Ghosn!
12-03-2008 @ 9:37PM
steven said...
Where will George Bush be at the table. He has steadfastly refused to support health care reform. His refusal to establish an energy policy hamstrings the auto companies' long term planning. His failure regarding the credit markets, 90% of cars are bought on credit, has hamstringed the consumers. His refusal to support CAFE standards along with supporting tax policies which encouraged the purchase of 5,000+pound SUV was totally off base. How could the auto industry manage to make money in the tide of confusion and failure wrought upon this c ountry by the current Republican administration.
12-03-2008 @ 9:51PM
P Thomp said...
I have worked in Nissan manufacturing and I do not believe Ghosn to be a good fit with GM or Ford .. maybe Chrysler. All have problems and could do better, but the general economic picture is the biggest issue. Actually GM has a great product line with more coming under current management. The biggest issues are problems they inherited. Give them a chance.
12-03-2008 @ 11:22PM
Todd said...
Remind me to never take one of your courses. It would take me hours to point out your inaccuracies, but suffice to say before you "spew" your theories or "prophecies," it may warrant just a hint of investigation into what you believe you're commenting on in the first place.
Fact - GM has more vehicles getting more than 30 MPG than any other car manufacturer. Fact - GM is the only manufacturer that has vehicle in the pipeline that does not rely on gas to drive for the first 40 miles (which covers the commute for about 80%+ of most Americans.
Are any of the Big 3 perfect? Far from it. But the last I checked the Big 3 had more factories ranked with the best productivity and quality in America. But I guess that doesn't count for much.
Poor professor - go sip your latte', cuddle up to a computer, and check your facts. And if you ever want to escape the ivory tower for a real job, let the rest of us know.
12-03-2008 @ 11:44PM
Neil said...
To: ALL AMERICAN'S
It is inportant for each of us to contact our Congressmen & women TODAY and tell them -
DO NOT US OUR TAX DOLLARS TO BAIL OUT AMERICAN CAR MAKERS!!
They need to go reorganize like any other busineses.
They MUST CUT THE OUTRAGIOUS WHITE COLLAR & UNION WAGES!!!
UNIONS ARE DESTROYING AMERICA" ability to compete in the golbal markets!!!
IT IS NOW OR NEVER - AMERICA
12-04-2008 @ 12:32PM
JT said...
TO: ALL AMERICANS........YES WRITE YOUR CONGRESSMEN AND WOMAN.....TO BAIL OUT OUR ONLY INDUSTRY LEFT!!!!!!!!! THE AUTO INDUSTRY TOUCHES ALL OF US........IF THEY FAIL...GM/FORD/CHRYSLER WILL PULL DOWN GOODYEAR/FIRESTONE/GLASS/RUBBER/
COMPUTER COMPANIES/ADVERSTISING COMPANIES....THE LOCAL TOWNS WILL LOOSE MILLIONS IN TAX REV. WHO WILL PAY FOR THE POLICE? THE FIREMAN? THE ROAD REPAIRS? THE SCHOOLS? IF YOU LOVE AMERICA THEN SUPPORT AMERICA!!!!!!! SUPPORT AMERICANS!!!!! WE ARE RELYING ON ALL IMPORTED PRODUCTS? AND THE PROFITS GO OVER SEAES!!!!!!!! AND WE HAVE GIVEN UP OUR JOBS!!!!! GOD FOR BID WE HAVE A MAJOR WAR.......DO YOU THINK THE TOYOTA PLANT IN KENTUCKY WILL BUILD US TANKS/AIRPLANES? BUY AMERICAN............SUPPORT AMERICAN.......SUPPORT OUR DOMESTIC AUTO COMPANIES............
12-04-2008 @ 10:25PM
Emil Eggimann said...
Even if they reorganize it will take genius to get rid of the unions and most of mismanagement Top Managers that have no concept of Honest Management. By a Government bail out we only postpone the inevitable, over production has finally peaked this should have been realized years ago. With the miserable Quality systems, where the bottom line is more important then the product.
Let them go Bankrupt there seems to be an oversupply of rolling stock everywhere.
12-05-2008 @ 3:37AM
Barbara36 said...
There is a very important thing about the auto companies everyone is forgetting as they watch them go down the tubes. During WW II, it was the auto companies with their big, already equipped factories and know-how, that swung into action to swiftly produce our war machine. Jeeps. Airplanes, Tanks. Were we to find ourselves in a mess like that again, I really doubt Toyota, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, or Hyundai would do that for us in each of their espective countries. And
that is not to address the millions and millions of Americans who would be out of work, along with their companies' suppliers. The unions are beginning to give a little. The CEO's are giving up their big salaries. If we had all those hundreds of billions for the super-rich bankers and those fools at AIG, we can come up with some bucks for the Big Three.