Oil traders believe the price of oil could fall below $40 per barrel by the end of the year. Whoever drove prices up to $147.27 per barrel taught the oil industry a valuable lesson in demand destruction that they should have learned during the oil shocks of the 70s. I can still remember waiting in long lines just to get gas in the late 70s. After the two oil shocks of the 70s, people did the same thing they are doing now -- bought smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles, thereby reducing demand for many years to come. While there is little doubt in my mind that eventually, as the economic recovery begins to take hold, oil prices will again be driven up to $100 per barrel, it will probably take a few of years.
We'll probably go through a similar cycle as we did in the 70s and 80s. OPEC already is threatening to reduce output. Drilling and exploration projects will be postponed or canceled because the economic incentive to find new oil has been reduced by the prospect of lower gains. Demand will eventually exceed supply as the economy recovers and pressure again is put on available supplies.
Remember, oil is not a renewable source. If the world were smart during this time of lower prices we'd develop alternatives to this nonrenewable source, but I doubt we will. And so, before we know it, oil will again climb to new heights and help cause the same economic destruction it did this time. But the next time, it might actually hit $200 per barrel and create even more havoc on the economic markets.
Lita Epstein has written more than 25 books including the "Complete Idiot's Guide to the Politics of Oil."











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-04-2008 @ 11:48AM
Jason said...
You make some very good points. We should working on developing alternatives now.
www.eeinvesting.com
12-04-2008 @ 11:56AM
Mike O said...
With democrats in control, I am betting they will still allocate funds for alternative energy sources.
I, for one, am still interested in the Chevy Volt.
12-04-2008 @ 1:52PM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
"OPEC already is threatening to reduce output. Drilling and exploration projects will be postponed or canceled because the economic incentive to find new oil has been reduced by the prospect of lower gains. Demand will eventually exceed supply as the economy recovers and pressure again is put on available supplies."
ABSOLUTELY UNTRUE, Oil Exploration Is
Scheduled By Almost Every Producer, And Only Scaled Back--NOT Cancelled, SAUDI ARABIA Just recntly Announced 500 BILLION, In Revenue, Over 4 Years--For Further Exploration. CRUDE OIL Plays An Important Part In Things--Other Then Fuel.
There Will Be No "Shortage". Crude oil Price Will Respond To Market Conditions, But Availability--Is Not In question. OPEC lost Control Of Oil Pricing, as SPECULATORS Took A 92.00 Barrel Of Oil And Ran It Up--To 147.00, But, As You Can see, The Market Eventually Got wise To That One.
EMIL J KOVACH JR
12-04-2008 @ 1:52PM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
"I, for one, am still interested in the Chevy Volt"---IF Everyone went Home Tonight--And PLUGGED IN A "Chevy Volt"
The Entire Electric Grid--Across Our Country--Would Collapse Into a Black-Out--The GRID Can Not Handle The Transfer, To this Alternative Source..
If ELECTRICITY Is A Car's Future--We will Need To Build up The Power Grid Necessary To Handle--This Load--And FUEL To Power The Generators.
EMIL J KOVACH JR
12-04-2008 @ 1:53PM
Iridium said...
Stop trying to put forth the idea that demand is what drove oil up and is now driving it down.
The market price of oil has almost nothing to do with supply and demand. S&D probably makes up 10% or less of oil's actual price.
The real price of oil is set by hedge funds and market manipulators. OPEC has lost all control of pricing. They have cut the supply by some of the greatest levels this decade but the price keeps falling. Why because oil was overvalued by $120 a barrel.
There was plenty of supply to go around during this last oil shock. SO much so that US oil companies actually sold inventory overseas. We didn't have gas lines, there were no problems getting gas. Other than those attributed to the huricane.
When market manipulators (I refuse to call them speculators anymore) and hedge funds are out of the picture then oil can trade at a demand level. Guess what, that barely supports a per barrel price of $20.
If oil goes to $200 it will not be because of a supply problem but because manipulators will have got back in the game to drive prices up to make up for losses in other areas.
We had $147 oil because of the mortage meltdown. That was the reason and the only reason. Demand was used as an excuse as major hedge funds used oil to offset losses in mortage backed securities.
Now we are going to have to hear about how poor the oil company's earnings are since oil is going to be $40 a barrel. Oh poor company that got to ride a speculative binge that has ruined the world economy. At $40 a barrel it is still profitable to drill anywhere in the world.
12-04-2008 @ 4:28PM
JCH said...
It was totally supply and demand.
The reality of the oil market is there can never be a global growth economy ever again without rapidly escalating oil prices.
Anybody who has ever drilled a hole knows what I am talking about. That sound your straw makes when you are almost out of milkshake - that is the only noise you hear at an oil well.
The authors on this blog are livin' in the dead gusher past.