Goldman pushes unemployment forecast up -- a sign other estimates are too low

Depending on which Wall Street firm or economist you ask, estimates for job losses in November are about 300,000. That would push the unemployment rate up to about 6.7%.

There is growing pessimism that the "consensus" about the number of people pushed out of work last month is way too low. Certainly lay-off news from a number of large companies and a rapidly slowing economy would be cause to reevaluate assumptions.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has done just that. It has gone back to the drawing board to revise its estimates for November job losses and the results were not good. According to Reuters, "Goldman Sachs has revised up its forecast for U.S. job losses in November to 400,000 after reports showing a dismal employment picture in the private sector, particularly in services."

A number of that magnitude could move the unemployment rate closer to 7% and presents the risk that the situation could get much worse in the first quarter of 2009.

If there is any hallmark of the current downturn, it is the extent to which economists and other forecasters have missed their estimates and predictions. Almost to a fault, they have been too rosy. With each passing week there is another piece of evidence that economists are more like "guessers" than well-trained experts when it comes to predicting where the national business and financial environment is heading.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.