Merrill says oil may fall below $25 next year amid global recession


If economist David H. Wang had predicted earlier this year that oil would fall to $40 per barrel in 2009, "I would have lost my reputation as an economist in standing," he said.

Or, "they would have probably said I was in need of 24-hour observation," he added.

Well, $40-per-barrel oil in 2009 doesn't appear to be that outlandish now. In fact, in the view of one research operation, it looks downright high.

Merrill Lynch said oil may fall below $25 per barrel in 2009 as a global recession takes hold, Bloomberg News reported Thursday, reducing demand for the world's most important commodity.

The dreaded China slowdown


Equally significant, the global recession may further slow China's economy, creating an even larger surplus in key commodities. Further, even though Merrill reiterated its November forecast that oil futures will average $50 per barrel in 2009, Wang said if China's GDP growth, currently in the 6-8% slows to 5% or below, all bets are off regarding commodity prices.

"Today's oil prices assume continued, solid, if not double-digit growth in China," Wang said. "If China's economy slows further, and we start see real year-over-year declines in oil consumption in China, not just cuts in the level of oil consumption growth, oil prices will fall well below $40 and that $25 forecast will come into view."

Oil dipped 44 cents to $46.35 per barrel in Thursday morning trading. Oil has fallen a stunning $100 since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel last summer.


Further, although lower oil prices serve as a tax cut for U.S. consumers - - each $1 drop in oil increases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent decline in gasoline increases U.S. consumer disposable income by $600 million per year - - U.S. consumers "should not jump for joy at the sight of $30 or $25 oil," so says economist Peter Dawson.

"Prices for gasoline are below $2 gallon in many areas of the United States, and I want to emphasize that's a good thing. It puts more money in the pockets and savings accounts of Americans at a time when they sorely need it," Dawson said. "But an oil price fall to the $30-range implies very low demand for oil and other commodities globally, which would mean the global recession is in force in 2009. That all but guarantees a deep, long recession in the United States with unconscionable levels of unemployment, and that's something no one wants to see."

Further, Dawson said the nation should proceed with energy conservation efforts - - a next-generation car as a condition of the auto bailout, mass transit improvements, and more energy-efficient homes and businesses - - regardless of the price of oil. "It was a failure to increase auto efficiency that helped create high gasoline prices in the first place, and made us vulnerable to an oil shock. That vulnerability has to be eliminated to strengthen our economy," Dawson said.

Oil / Economic Analysis: Barring massive production cutbacks by OPEC and non-OPEC producers - - or a sudden surge in U.S. GDP growth - - oil's price will trend lower through much of 2009. However, as Dawson noted, U.S. energy efficiency should proceed: four oil shock-induced recessions are enough for the U.S.

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