Or, "they would have probably said I was in need of 24-hour observation," he added.
Well, $40-per-barrel oil in 2009 doesn't appear to be that outlandish now. In fact, in the view of one research operation, it looks downright high.
Merrill Lynch said oil may fall below $25 per barrel in 2009 as a global recession takes hold, Bloomberg News reported Thursday, reducing demand for the world's most important commodity.
The dreaded China slowdown
Equally significant, the global recession may further slow China's economy, creating an even larger surplus in key commodities. Further, even though Merrill reiterated its November forecast that oil futures will average $50 per barrel in 2009, Wang said if China's GDP growth, currently in the 6-8% slows to 5% or below, all bets are off regarding commodity prices.
"Today's oil prices assume continued, solid, if not double-digit growth in China," Wang said. "If China's economy slows further, and we start see real year-over-year declines in oil consumption in China, not just cuts in the level of oil consumption growth, oil prices will fall well below $40 and that $25 forecast will come into view."
Oil dipped 44 cents to $46.35 per barrel in Thursday morning trading. Oil has fallen a stunning $100 since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel last summer.
Further, although lower oil prices serve as a tax cut for U.S. consumers - - each $1 drop in oil increases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent decline in gasoline increases U.S. consumer disposable income by $600 million per year - - U.S. consumers "should not jump for joy at the sight of $30 or $25 oil," so says economist Peter Dawson.
"Prices for gasoline are below $2 gallon in many areas of the United States, and I want to emphasize that's a good thing. It puts more money in the pockets and savings accounts of Americans at a time when they sorely need it," Dawson said. "But an oil price fall to the $30-range implies very low demand for oil and other commodities globally, which would mean the global recession is in force in 2009. That all but guarantees a deep, long recession in the United States with unconscionable levels of unemployment, and that's something no one wants to see."
Further, Dawson said the nation should proceed with energy conservation efforts - - a next-generation car as a condition of the auto bailout, mass transit improvements, and more energy-efficient homes and businesses - - regardless of the price of oil. "It was a failure to increase auto efficiency that helped create high gasoline prices in the first place, and made us vulnerable to an oil shock. That vulnerability has to be eliminated to strengthen our economy," Dawson said.
Oil / Economic Analysis: Barring massive production cutbacks by OPEC and non-OPEC producers - - or a sudden surge in U.S. GDP growth - - oil's price will trend lower through much of 2009. However, as Dawson noted, U.S. energy efficiency should proceed: four oil shock-induced recessions are enough for the U.S.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-04-2008 @ 2:40PM
JCH said...
You hate oil companies so much you think it's a good thing a global recession takes prices to $26 a barrel.
You're an idiot.
It's a horrible thing that prices are not over $100 right now. Because the only way that could be true would be if a bunch of moron New York banker buddies of GW had not totally destroyed the global economy.
But they did destroy the global economy, and you apparently think that is a good thing because it brought oil prices down. Preposterous lunacy.
That is a horrifically bad tradeoff.
12-04-2008 @ 2:43PM
beanspants said...
I thought Economics was a science, a roughly controlled by laws of supply and demand, and as such, making such a prediction wouldn't have damanged Wang's reputation.
Oh, you say it's like American Idol, where you try to get the most people to like you by being bland and inoffensive? Ok, got it.
12-04-2008 @ 2:52PM
JCH said...
And this was not an oil-induced recession.
That is pure poppycock.
This recession was caused by the insane number of home foreclosure that were slamming into a system that had no way of handling that financial storm. Almost every single foreclosure involves a mortgage that originated between 2002 and 2006. The White House and its Banker buddies caused this little catastrophe all by themselves.
12-04-2008 @ 7:03PM
afgail said...
This NOT good news. The oil oligarchs are determined to kill the movement to solve global climate change by making all competative forms of alternative energy more expensive than oil products. They are screwing us AGAIN.
12-04-2008 @ 8:13PM
JCH said...
All alternatives were already noncompetitive with oil.
That is one of the weirdest aspects of oil hatred. You guys would rather pay $7.00 a gallon for an alternative than $4.00 for gasoline.
Corn ethanol is highly subsidized. The price you pay at the pump is not the price. You would be buying cellulosic ethanol, but it is much higher corn ethanol.
12-31-2008 @ 4:52PM
david wayne osedach said...
How many trillions are already in (OPEC) banks as a result of $150/bbl oil? The greatest transfer of wealth in history! Now, it's payback time.
12-04-2008 @ 10:05PM
jfk said...
You are both idiots, especially you JCH... just because you seem like a dick.
$100+ oil means nothing other than not enough is being done to pull the country towards renewable energy. I don't care how big of a tree hugger you are, $100+ oil hurts. We CAN pry the country off oil and keep prices from going sky high. The gov't needs to mandate the auto industry so this happens. Hybrids, for example, should be required. This way, when oil drops to where it is now, we don't go and start another oil rally.
I'm not saying $25 oil is good, it's bad if we are allowed to buy unlimited amounts of it. However, we don't need $100+ oil to force the country to go in the right direction.
12-04-2008 @ 11:52PM
stephanie in California said...
They are playing us again.
12-05-2008 @ 2:36AM
Robert said...
Obama was going to make alternative energy a centerpiece of his new administration. This would reduce the dependency on foreign oil, create millions of jobs, establish the U.S. as a leader in green technology, and attack the major causes of global warming. Bush went on his pathetic knees to the Saudis earlier this year and warned that if the price of oil did not come down, the U.S. would start pursuing alternative energies. The Saudis just shrugged and the price of oil continued to climb. They knew a toothless tiger when they saw one. But here is a new charismatic U.S. leader with heaps of political capital taking office at a time when spending trillions of dollars is just fine if it stimulates the economy. Price would be no object. And folks who were paying $4 a gallon for gas would applaud that he was killing more than one bird with one stone. So what could international oil interests do? Well, they could kill the president but that would likely backfire so early in his leadership role. Whomever replaces him would have even more political capital. The will and the way. The second, bloodless thing they could do was reduce the price of oil - drastically. Doesn't matter if they lose billions in the short run, the alternative was far worse. But reduce the price of oil and therefore the price of gasoline and the political will goes away as well as the economic means.
In short, I think the price of oil is going even lower and will remain low for at least a year and a half into the next administration - demand or no demand. If Obama is successful in his first year and a half, oil will remain low. If his political capital has eroded sufficiently, the price of oil will climb - rapidly
12-05-2008 @ 3:36AM
James Raider said...
The American economy rests on the back of the American worker and consumer. Taxpayers own the government and currency is only a tool enabling commerce.
Get it working for you, not against you.
http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/12/revising-government-relationship-to.html
12-05-2008 @ 10:57AM
JCH said...
We've just lost more trillions than they can ever lose.
I don't know how to express it without being a dick, but throwing your country into a deep recession is not going to hurt OPEC much at all, unless you intend to remain in a deep recession forever. They are not going to be much bothered by when the world gets around to paying them a higher price for their remaining oil.
A financial disaster of our own creation has befallen our country, and it has spilled out over the entire globe. We elected an idiot to be President, and we arrogantly drug the earth through his brand of free-market, war waging hell.
If anybody on the face of the earth is due a comeuppence it's the United States, not OPEC. The world screamed for 86 billion barrels of oil, and they did their part to supply it. Now you're mad at them? Why? For doing their job? That makes no sense.