Big 3 rescue 'a done deal,' given 2 million jobs lost in 2008, economist says

The behavioral sciences teach us that it's mature to compartmentalize, for many circumstances. To use a magazine industry analogy, a lethargic advertising sales staff should not affect your attitude toward your features writing department.

Compartmentalize? Washington doesn't

Sorry, it doesn't work that way inside the beltway. Image matters. Signals matter. In short, events in one theater can affect the entire political climate.

And that's the case with the nation's job losses in 2008 and the proposed $34 billion rescue package for the Big Three auto manufacturers winding its way through Congress, so says economist David H. Wang.

"We have now suffered 2 million jobs lost in 2008, including an awful 533,000 jobs lost in November. That means the auto rescue package is a done deal," Wang said. "There will continue to be debate on the scope of the rescue, the metrics, the form of the U.S. government's investment, the timetable for the repayment, and how much Congress wants the new auto sector to contribute to energy policy goals, but the status of the package is a done deal."

And the political climate clincher, is obvious enough, Wang added.

"The U.S. Congress is not going to say, after seeing two million jobs lost in a year, 'O.K., here's another, automatic, 1-million job loss, just for good measure, to further drive the U.S. economy into a ditch' " Wang said. "The U.S. auto sector represents too many good-paying industrial jobs and spin-off jobs. They are a key component of our industrial base and will play a role in the nation's economic recovery."


General Motors (NYSE: GM) shares rose 8 cents to $4.20, while Ford (NYSE: F) rose 9 cents to $2.75 in Friday morning trading. Chrysler is privately-held.

Further, economist Peter Dawson said a cessation of auto manufacturing operations would drive unemployment levels "to Great Depression percentages," in many Midwest U.S. states. "The social costs and state budget deficits in 3 years alone, would exceed the cost of the rescue package, so the package is as much about reducing social services spending as it is about transforming the auto sector."

Auto Sector / Economic Analysis: It's now incumbent on Congress and GM, Ford, and Chrysler to agree on a rescue package with specific, substantive metrics. Among other stipulations, the deal should contain the goal of a next-generation car that dramatically cuts energy use, along with a line of vehicles that can compete on quality and price with the best vehicles produced by foreign manufacturers.
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