New to the Mac? Check out TUAW's Mac 101

AOL Money & Finance

Cheap Stocks: IBM

More

This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

From a contrarian perspective, International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) might seem like an odd choice. Large-cap tech stocks are heavily populated by hedge-fund investors, and securities with this dubious distinction have been absolutely hammered this year. However, there's a certain something about IBM that distinguishes it from the pack.

For starters, there's no cult following for IBM -- and cult favorites, such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM), have performed significantly worse than IBM this year. The market's expectations for these beloved gadget-makers are perpetually running at peak levels, which makes them more vulnerable to a shift in investor sentiment. Conversely, when was the last time you heard someone really getting excited about IBM? In this market, "boring" can be a good thing.

In its mid-October earnings report, IBM edged past analysts' consensus third-quarter profit estimates by 3 cents per share. While sales of computer hardware slipped during the quarter, that weakness was more than offset by strength in software and services revenues. Big Blue also reassured the Street that its liquidity position was "very strong," a comment that carries more weight than ever before in the current environment.

IBM's current annual low stands at $69.50, which indicates that round-number support near $70 is so far holding steady. Since October 1998, the shares have finished just one month below this critical level. The equity's 200-month moving average is also climbing through the $70 region, suggesting that IBM could catch an additional lift from this trendline support.

In fact, the greatest risk for IBM right now might be its inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While the tech stock has outperformed the Dow year-to-date, continued losses in the broader equity market may mean that IBM is punished by association.

With that in mind, traders should keep an eye on the 70 level. A significant breach of support here could mean that the technical rug has been yanked out from under IBM, and the stock would likely flounder as a result. Otherwise, Big Blue looks like one major tech name that's sufficiently diverse to navigate the market's choppy waters. As of November 30, the stock's price/earnings ratio of 9.62 is remarkably affordable, compared to its five-year average p/e of 18.8.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-223.328,280.74
NASDAQ-49.201,796.52
S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 06, 2009: 06:42 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

BioHealth Investor Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance

WalletPop Headlines