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Cheap Stocks: Hudson City Bancorp

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This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

If you had to judge solely by its year-to-date price action, you would probably never guess that Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK) is, well, a bank. The shares are currently holding onto a year-to-date gain, and they're thriving for good reason. Paramus, New Jersey-based HCBK is feeling so flush, it recently rejected the opportunity to rake in some of the government's TARP funds.

In a statement accompanying the news, Chairman, CEO, and President Ronald Hermance Jr. explained how Hudson City has endured the financial crisis: "We have never offered subprime mortgages ... or other risky mortgage products. We do not sell any of our loan production to the secondary market. We keep all of our loans in portfolio. As a result, we have not been seriously affected by conditions in the marketplace."

Honestly, Hudson City Bancorp seems to be operating in its own economy independent from the rest of the U.S. Check out some of the figures the bank holding company reported on October 15 in its second-quarter earnings release: profit jumped 64% to hit a record 25 cents per share, one cent higher than analysts expected; through September 30, year-to-date deposits added $2.14 billion to $17.29 billion, while total year-to-date assets rose by $7.35 billion to $51.77 billion; and HCBK reported that it's actually writing more mortgages now than it was last year.

With all this background information in mind, it's no wonder that HCBK's price action looks so healthy. The stock ended November on a gain of 11.2% year-to-date, far outpacing the performance of the broader market. A few significant pullbacks in the shares have reversed course after finding support from their 50-month moving average.

In fact, HCBK has rarely ventured south of the $15 level this year. As the equity advances, the $19.50 area could prove a difficult region to topple. However, there's room for pessimism to reverse on this banking stock, which could provide the buying power necessary to topple this resistance level.

Analysts have low expectations for Hudson City, despite its enviable bottom line. Thomson Financial reports the average 12-month price target as $18.20, which leaves plenty of room for upward revisions to this consensus estimate. In the same skeptical vein, Zacks notes that 78% of brokerage firms following the shares consider them a Hold or Sell.

I can't blame analysts for dogging the financial sector, but these negative ratings seem inspired more by the performance of Hudson City's peers than by the bank itself. Any bullish notes from analysts -- which seem richly deserved, by now -- could attract more buying pressure to HCBK. As of November 30, the stock's price/earnings ratio of 20.7 was well below its five-year average p/e of 29, so snap up these shares while they're still on sale.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

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Last updated: November 09, 2009: 07:37 AM

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